AA Stock Overview
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and internationally.
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$61.21|
|52 Week High||US$64.37|
|52 Week Low||US$17.30|
|1 Month Change||3.12%|
|3 Month Change||33.38%|
|1 Year Change||229.80%|
|3 Year Change||112.90%|
|5 Year Change||67.93%|
|Change since IPO||172.04%|
Recent News & Updates
Alcoa: Future Is Looking Brighter For Free Cash Flow And Shareholder Returns
Alcoa has recently initiated their first-ever dividends and despite only providing a very low yield, their future is looking brighter for their free cash flow than their past. They have historically produced negative free cash flow since at least 2018, although this has been very significantly weighed down by their pension liability payments. These have been materially reduced during the first nine months of 2021 and thus when looking ahead, their impact upon their cash flow performance should wind down. They have also eliminated the majority of their net debt thanks to divestitures, which will provide a lasting benefit by lowering their interest expense and thus boosting their operating cash flow. When these are combined, their future free cash flow is looking brighter but I still only believe that a neutral rating is appropriate due to their all-time high share price and unpredictable industry.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger
If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Ideally, a business will show two...
|AA||US Metals and Mining||US Market|
Return vs Industry: AA exceeded the US Metals and Mining industry which returned 13.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: AA exceeded the US Market which returned 4.2% over the past year.
|AA Average Weekly Movement||7.6%|
|Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement||9.3%|
|Market Average Movement||6.7%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.4%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.4%|
Stable Share Price: AA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.
Volatility Over Time: AA's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting, casting, and rolling businesses.
Alcoa Fundamentals Summary
|AA fundamental statistics|
Is AA overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|AA income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$9.15b|
Last Reported Earnings
Dec 31, 2021
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||2.33|
|Net Profit Margin||3.53%|
How did AA perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
0.7%Current Dividend Yield
Is Alcoa undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
Price to Earnings (PE) ratio
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: AA ($61.21) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($59.13)
Significantly Below Fair Value: AA is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Price To Earnings Ratio
PE vs Industry: AA is poor value based on its PE Ratio (26.3x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (8.2x).
PE vs Market: AA is poor value based on its PE Ratio (26.3x) compared to the US market (16.5x).
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: AA is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.8x)
Price to Book Ratio
PB vs Industry: AA is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.4x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (2x).
How is Alcoa forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AA's forecast earnings growth (14.9% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).
Earnings vs Market: AA's earnings (14.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13% per year).
High Growth Earnings: AA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: AA's revenue (1.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.1% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AA's revenue (1.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.4%).
How has Alcoa performed over the past 5 years?
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: AA has a large one-off loss of $1.1B impacting its December 31 2021 financial results.
Growing Profit Margin: AA became profitable in the past.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: AA has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -0.04% per year.
Accelerating Growth: AA has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: AA has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (125.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: AA's Return on Equity (9.1%) is considered low.
How is Alcoa's financial position?
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: AA's short term assets ($5.0B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.2B).
Long Term Liabilities: AA's short term assets ($5.0B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($5.5B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: AA has more cash than its total debt.
Reducing Debt: AA's debt to equity ratio has increased from 18.8% to 27.6% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: AA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (53.3%).
Interest Coverage: AA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (10.7x coverage).
What is Alcoa current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: AA's dividend (0.65%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.36%).
High Dividend: AA's dividend (0.65%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.57%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: AA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.
Growing Dividend: AA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.
Current Payout to Shareholders
Dividend Coverage: AA is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.
Future Payout to Shareholders
Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of AA's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Roy Harvey (46 yo)
Mr. Roy C. Harvey has been the Chief Executive Officer of Alcoa Corporation since November 01, 2016 and has been its President since May 9, 2017. Mr. Harvey served as Executive Vice President and President...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Roy's total compensation ($USD13.28M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD11.47M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Roy's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Experienced Management: AA's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.2 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: AA's board of directors are considered experienced (5.2 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: AA insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Alcoa Corporation's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Alcoa Corporation
- Ticker: AA
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 2016
- Industry: Aluminum
- Sector: Materials
- Implied Market Cap: US$11.269b
- Shares outstanding: 184.10m
- Website: https://www.alcoa.com
Number of Employees
- Alcoa Corporation
- 201 Isabella Street
- Suite 500
- United States
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/01/26 01:10|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/01/25 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.