Alcoa Management
Management criteria checks 4/4
Alcoa's CEO is Bill Oplinger, appointed in Sep 2023, has a tenure of 2.83 years. total yearly compensation is $14.00M, comprised of 9.3% salary and 90.7% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly owns 0.069% of the company’s shares, worth $8.20M. The average tenure of the management team and the board of directors is 3.4 years and 4.2 years respectively.
Key information
Bill Oplinger
Chief executive officer
US$14.0m
Total compensation
| CEO salary percentage | 9.28% |
| CEO tenure | 2.8yrs |
| CEO ownership | 0.07% |
| Management average tenure | 3.4yrs |
| Board average tenure | 4.2yrs |
Recent management updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 15
AA: South32 Asset Deal Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Alcoa from $127.34 to $82.00, reflecting updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News Alcoa agreed to acquire South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets across Australia, Brazil, and South Africa in a transaction valued at about US$4.1b in upfront cash and stock, plus a potential US$750 million contingent value right, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals, with closing targeted for the first half of 2027.Seeking Alpha • Jul 02
Alcoa's Collapse Looks Like A Buying Opportunity
Summary Alcoa Corporation has dropped over 40% since May 2026, but I remain bullish with a potential 42% upside. AA's recent acquisition of South32 assets strengthens its upstream aluminum position and is expected to generate ~$900M in NPV synergies. Despite macro headwinds and a sharp aluminum price correction, AA trades at less than 4x forward EV/EBITDA, well below its 5-year average. Risks include earnings sensitivity to global aluminum prices and potential EBITDA estimate cuts, but long-term demand drivers remain intact. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jul 01
AA: Acquisition And Secured Power Supply Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa from $92.00 to $127.34, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What’s in the News for Alcoa Alcoa agreed to acquire South32’s bauxite mine, alumina refinery, and aluminum smelter interests for about US$4.1b.
Narrative Update • Jun 17
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Aluminum Price Tailwinds Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have raised their Alcoa price target from $73.87 to $82.25, citing updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E. What’s in the News for Alcoa Alcoa shares dropped nearly 10% after the company revised its Q2 outlook, citing a projected US$60 million unfavorable impact in the Alumina segment from higher production costs at the Pinjarra refinery, cyclone related disruptions, and increased energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz.Analysis Article • Jun 16
Alcoa (AA) Stock Could Be 14.9% Undervalued on Its Decarbonization Growth Narrative
Alcoa (AA) has drawn renewed attention after recent share price moves, with the stock last closing at $62.87. Investors are weighing this level against the company’s current earnings profile, growth metrics, and broader aluminum exposure. See our latest analysis for Alcoa. Recent weakness in Alcoa’s share price, with a 1-day share price return that declined 2.01% and a 7-day share price return that declined 13.18%, sits against a year-to-date share price return of 11.20% and a 1-year total...
Narrative Update • Jun 03
AA: Supply Disruptions And Cost Pressures Will Likely Still Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts have lifted their price target on Alcoa from about $46.37 to roughly $53.99, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News UBS upgraded Alcoa to Buy and lifted its price target to $80, citing expectations of prolonged aluminum supply disruptions in the Middle East and a projected global supply gap by 2026.Narrative Update • May 13
AA: Production Stability And Higher Margins Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised Alcoa's fair value estimate from $58.00 to $92.00, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple as the main factors supporting the higher price target. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite at 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum at 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year earlier (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 29
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Production Plans Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Alcoa to $73.87 from $72.48, reflecting updated expectations around potential revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite output of 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina production of 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum production of 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year ago (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 15
AA: Updated Output Plans And Margins Will Shape Measured Future Returns
Analysts have revised their price target for Alcoa to approximately $72, up from about $67, citing updated assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa reported fourth quarter 2025 production with Bauxite at 9.4 mdmt versus 9.3 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,481 kmt versus 2,390 kmt, and Aluminum at 604 kmt versus 571 kmt (Announcement of Operating Results).Narrative Update • Mar 31
AA: Higher Output And Trading Volumes Will Likely Still Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts now place Alcoa's price target at about $46.37, compared with the prior $38.00. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate, and future P/E levels.Narrative Update • Mar 17
AA: Production Plans And Margin Expectations Will Guide Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Alcoa to $66.92 from $61.42, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2026, targeting total Alumina segment production between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons, with shipments between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the role of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina in meeting customer contracts (company guidance).Narrative Update • Mar 03
AA: Production Guidance And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their Alcoa price target slightly higher to $61.42 from $61.08, reflecting updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued 2026 production guidance for its Alumina segment, with expected production between 9.7 million and 9.9 million metric tons and shipments between 11.8 million and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the use of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (Corporate guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 16
AA: Higher Margins And Production Will Still Likely Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from $33.00 to $38.00, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth expectations, profit margin outlook, and a revised future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2025 and outlined expectations for 2026, with the Alumina segment projected to produce between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons in 2026, and shipments expected between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting a mix of internal production, trading volumes, and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (company guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 02
AA: Low Carbon Smelting And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from US$45.42 to US$61.08. They cite updates in their models that reflect revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples.Narrative Update • Jan 19
AA: Future Decarbonization Benefits Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Pricing
Analysts have lifted their price target on Alcoa from US$27.00 to US$33.00, pointing to updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a lower future P/E as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball Corporation and Unilever announced the first use of ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in consumer personal and home care packaging, using aluminum that eliminates direct smelting greenhouse gas emissions and generates oxygen instead of CO2 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 05
AA: Carbon Free Smelting And Energy Moves Will Support Balanced Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately $42 to $58 per share, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, significantly higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Together, these factors support a meaningfully higher fair value estimate.Analysis Article • Dec 30
Alcoa Corporation's (NYSE:AA) Share Price Boosted 29% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too
Despite an already strong run, Alcoa Corporation ( NYSE:AA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the...Narrative Update • Dec 20
AA: Low Carbon Smelting Shift Will Likely Pressure Future Returns
Narrative Update on Alcoa Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa by approximately 10 percent to around 45 dollars per share, citing expectations for modestly stronger revenue growth, materially improved profit margins, and a more attractive forward earnings multiple. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology, combining low carbon primary aluminum with recycled content to create one of the lowest footprint aerosol cans on the market (company announcement).Narrative Update • Dec 06
AA: Low Carbon Initiatives And Portfolio Reshaping Will Define Future Performance
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately 39.54 dollars to 41.29 dollars, citing higher long term revenue growth expectations and a richer future earnings multiple, despite a lower projected profit margin and slightly higher discount rate. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in low carbon aerosol cans ahead of COP30, highlighting a major step toward decarbonized aluminum supply chains (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Nov 22
AA: Measured Shifts in Operations and Partnerships Will Shape Future Performance
Narrative Update on Alcoa: Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Alcoa, revising the price target from $39.63 to $39.54 per share. This change reflects modest adjustments to outlooks on discount rate and growth assumptions.Narrative Update • Nov 05
AA: Future Investments and Facility Upgrades Will Drive Shareholder Value
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa slightly. The new target is $39.63, up from $39.21.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Raise Alcoa Price Target as New Partnerships and Plant Closure Drive Valuation Upward
Alcoa's analyst price target has increased from $36.64 to $39.21. This change reflects improved revenue growth and profit margin projections according to analysts.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa from $34.09 to $36.64. They cite improved forecast profit margins and lower expected future price-to-earnings ratios as key factors in their updated outlook.Narrative Update • Sep 24
Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins
Despite a notable downgrade in revenue growth expectations, an improved net profit margin has offset this impact, resulting in a slight increase in Alcoa's analyst price target from $33.55 to $34.09. What's in the News Held Analyst/Investor Day event.
New Narrative • Apr 24
Australia Refinancing And San Ciprián Restart Will Support Stable Operations
Strategic refinancing and joint ventures are expected to enhance cash flow, reduce interest expenses, and stabilize revenue.Seeking Alpha • Apr 18
Alcoa's Q1 2025 Review: Tariff Hurts, But Game Isn't Over
Summary Alcoa's stock is down ~75% from its ATH. Tariff wars and economic uncertainty added fuel to the fire, but Q1 2025 results show strong net income and adjusted EBITDA growth. Despite a 3% QoQ revenue dip, net income more than doubled to $548 million, with adjusted net income beating Street estimates at $568 million. Alcoa refinanced $1 billion in debt, extending maturities and lowering interest expenses, aiming for an adjusted net debt range of $1-1.5 billion. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports will significantly impact Alcoa's costs, with a projected unfavorable impact of ~$90 million in Q2 2025. Because current tariffs hinder construction accessibility and will likely be revised (perhaps favorably for Alcoa), the present undervaluation of AA stock provides significant upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 30
Alcoa And The Aluminum Market: A Point Of Tension And Growth
Summary Alcoa's financial results have been volatile, with losses in 2022-2023 and profits in 2024 due to aluminum price recovery and strategic asset restructuring. The company focuses on high-quality assets, vertical integration, and technological advancements, aiming for efficiency and sustainability without aggressive expansion. Despite positive developments, Alcoa remains vulnerable to raw material price fluctuations and high energy costs, impacting its financial stability. Alcoa shares are fairly valued at $34; I recommend considering a purchase closer to $25, assigning a "Hold" rating due to limited upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 11
The 'Trump Factor' In Action: Why I'm Bullish On Alcoa
Summary Alcoa's vertical integration and strong aluminum demand outside China position it well amid tariffs, supply chain shifts, and economic growth trends. Tariffs could disrupt operations, but Alcoa's flexibility and improved balance sheet offer resilience and potential for significant upside. Valuation is attractive, with potential for over 30% stock price upside if economic growth accelerates and tariff risks are mitigated. Alcoa is highly cyclical and volatile, making it suitable for investors with patience and risk tolerance, despite trade policy and market risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 30
Alcoa: The Tides Have Shifted To A Bullish Market
Summary Alcoa Corporation closed FY24 with a strong macroeconomic backdrop, realizing revenue and margin growth resulting from strong aluminum and alumina pricing and volumes shipped. AA stock is well-positioned to benefit from potential trade restrictions and tariffs, with a strong global presence and flexible operational routes. Risks include potential negative impacts from trade wars and economic recoveries in China and Europe, which may affect pricing and shipment routes. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaCEO Compensation Analysis
| Date | Total Compensation | Salary | Company Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30 2026 | n/a | n/a | US$1b |
| Mar 31 2026 | n/a | n/a | US$1b |
| Dec 31 2025 | US$14m | US$1m | US$1b |
| Sep 30 2025 | n/a | n/a | US$1b |
| Jun 30 2025 | n/a | n/a | US$989m |
| Mar 31 2025 | n/a | n/a | US$847m |
| Dec 31 2024 | US$13m | US$1m | US$56m |
| Sep 30 2024 | n/a | n/a | -US$293m |
| Jun 30 2024 | n/a | n/a | -US$550m |
| Mar 31 2024 | n/a | n/a | -US$672m |
| Dec 31 2023 | US$5m | US$862k | -US$651m |
| Sep 30 2023 | n/a | n/a | -US$896m |
| Jun 30 2023 | n/a | n/a | -US$1b |
| Mar 31 2023 | n/a | n/a | -US$823m |
| Dec 31 2022 | US$4m | US$709k | -US$123m |
| Sep 30 2022 | n/a | n/a | -US$120m |
| Jun 30 2022 | n/a | n/a | US$963m |
| Mar 31 2022 | n/a | n/a | US$723m |
| Dec 31 2021 | US$5m | US$689k | US$429m |
| Sep 30 2021 | n/a | n/a | US$817m |
| Jun 30 2021 | n/a | n/a | US$431m |
| Mar 31 2021 | n/a | n/a | -US$75m |
| Dec 31 2020 | US$4m | US$671k | -US$170m |
| Sep 30 2020 | n/a | n/a | -US$469m |
| Jun 30 2020 | n/a | n/a | -US$641m |
| Mar 31 2020 | n/a | n/a | -US$846m |
| Dec 31 2019 | US$4m | US$651k | -US$1b |
Compensation vs Market: Bill's total compensation ($USD14.00M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD14.57M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Bill's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
CEO
Bill Oplinger (59 yo)
2.8yrs
Tenure
US$14,002,088
Compensation
Mr. William F. Oplinger, also known as Bill, serves as Director at Solstice Advanced Materials, Inc since October 2025. He serves as Member of Advisory Board at Ridgeline Royalties Inc. He had been Executi...
Leadership Team
| Name | Position | Tenure | Compensation | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | 2.8yrs | US$14.00m | 0.069% $ 8.2m | |
| Executive VP & CFO | 3.4yrs | US$4.34m | 0.028% $ 3.4m | |
| Executive VP & COO | 2.5yrs | US$4.25m | 0.0088% $ 1.1m | |
| Executive VP & General Counsel | 2.8yrs | US$3.08m | 0.0041% $ 487.4k | |
| Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 4.4yrs | US$2.86m | 0.019% $ 2.2m | |
| Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 6.3yrs | US$1.94m | 0.026% $ 3.1m | |
| Senior Vice President of Tax | 7.5yrs | no data | no data | |
| Senior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets | 4.5yrs | no data | no data | |
| Senior Vice President of Strategy | 2.5yrs | no data | no data | |
| Executive VP & Chief External Affairs Officer | less than a year | no data | no data | |
| Vice President of Environment & Sustainability | no data | no data | no data | |
| Senior VP | 6.5yrs | no data | no data |
3.4yrs
Average Tenure
52yo
Average Age
Experienced Management: AA's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).
Board Members
| Name | Position | Tenure | Compensation | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | 2.8yrs | US$14.00m | 0.069% $ 8.2m | |
| Independent Director | 9.7yrs | US$311.73k | 0.017% $ 2.1m | |
| Independent Director | 1.9yrs | US$297.14k | 0.011% $ 1.3m | |
| Independent Director | 9.7yrs | US$321.00k | 0.021% $ 2.6m | |
| Independent Director | 9.7yrs | US$312.72k | 0.020% $ 2.4m | |
| Independent Non-Executive Chairman of the Board | 5.2yrs | US$410.55k | 0.0088% $ 1.1m | |
| Independent Director | 1.9yrs | US$290.00k | 0.0046% $ 551.9k | |
| Independent Director | 3.5yrs | US$297.14k | 0.0060% $ 715.6k | |
| Independent Director | 6.2yrs | US$301.00k | 0.015% $ 1.8m | |
| Independent Director | less than a year | no data | 0.00096% $ 114.7k | |
| Independent Director | 4.2yrs | US$306.50k | 0.0075% $ 890.0k |
4.2yrs
Average Tenure
63yo
Average Age
Experienced Board: AA's board of directors are considered experienced (4.2 years average tenure).
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/24 22:42 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/24 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Alcoa Corporation is covered by 28 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Coleman | Argus Research Company |
| Dale Koenders | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Paretosh Misra | Berenberg |