Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Price Target After Its Latest Report

Shareholders of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to US$51.78 following its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in 2.3% below expectations, at US$2.9b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$0.28 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Chipotle Mexican Grill from 32 analysts is for revenues of US$12.3b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 6.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 3.8% to US$1.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$12.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.26 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

See our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill

The consensus price target fell 7.1% to US$57.94, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Chipotle Mexican Grill at US$68.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$46.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Chipotle Mexican Grill. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Chipotle Mexican Grill's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Chipotle Mexican Grill Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.