NYSE:CMG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 20.43% per year

Earnings grew by 98.3% over the past year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for CMG from our risk checks.


Snowflake Analysis

High growth potential with solid track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Chipotle Mexican Grill's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: CMG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

2.3%

CMG

0.09%

US Hospitality

0.5%

US Market


1 Year Return

55.3%

CMG

6.7%

US Hospitality

20.3%

US Market

Return vs Industry: CMG exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned 6.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CMG exceeded the US Market which returned 20.3% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

CMGIndustryMarket
7 Day2.3%0.09%0.5%
30 Day7.2%-1.9%2.0%
90 Day20.9%7.4%9.4%
1 Year55.3%55.3%9.5%6.7%22.8%20.3%
3 Year121.1%121.1%37.0%27.9%50.1%40.4%
5 Year39.3%39.3%48.5%32.8%73.1%54.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Chipotle Mexican Grill's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

73.98x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: CMG ($933.84) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($429.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: CMG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (74x) compared to the Hospitality industry average (24.3x).

PE vs Market: CMG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (74x) compared to the US market (18.3x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CMG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: CMG is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (15.4x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (2.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Chipotle Mexican Grill forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 31 analysts?

20.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CMG's forecast earnings growth (20.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: CMG's earnings (20.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CMG's revenue (10.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CMG's revenue (10.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CMG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (29.2%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Chipotle Mexican Grill performed over the past 5 years?

-17.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CMG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CMG's current net profit margins (6.3%) are higher than last year (3.6%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CMG's earnings have declined by -17.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CMG's earnings growth over the past year (98.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (-17.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: CMG earnings growth over the past year (98.3%) exceeded the Hospitality industry -9.8%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: CMG's Return on Equity (20.8%) is considered high.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Chipotle Mexican Grill's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CMG's short term assets ($1.1B) exceed its short term liabilities ($666.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: CMG's short term assets ($1.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($2.8B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CMG is debt free.

Reducing Debt: CMG has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CMG has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: CMG has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: CMG has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: Insufficient data to determine if CMG's debt is covered by short term assets.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Chipotle Mexican Grill's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage3.0%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CMG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CMG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CMG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CMG's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of CMG's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Brian Niccol (45yo)

1.9yrs

Tenure

US$33,730,294

Compensation

Mr. Brian R. Niccol has been Chief Executive Officer and Director at Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., since March 05, 2018. Mr. Niccol has been an Independent Director of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since July 25,  ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Brian's total compensation ($USD33.73M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD10.78M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Brian's compensation with company performance.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Brian Niccol
CEO & Director1.9yrsUS$33.73m0.018% $4.7m
John Hartung
Chief Financial Officer18.1yrsUS$4.98m0.13% $32.9m
Curtis Garner
Chief Technology Officer2.9yrsUS$8.13m0.014% $3.5m
Christopher Brandt
Chief Marketing Officer1.8yrsUS$5.19mno data
Scott Boatwright
Chief Restaurant Officer2.8yrsUS$5.71m0.011% $2.8m
Ashish Kohli
Head of Investor Relations0yrsno datano data
Roger Theodoredis
Chief Legal Officer & General Counsel1.3yrsno datano data
Marissa Andrada
Chief People Officer1.8yrsno datano data
Jim Slater
Managing Director of Europe3.4yrsno datano data
Laurie Schalow
Chief Corporate Reputation Officer0.9yrsno datano data

1.9yrs

Average Tenure

50yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: CMG's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Brian Niccol
CEO & Director1.9yrsUS$33.73m0.018% $4.7m
Paul Cappuccio
Independent Director3.2yrsUS$234.56k0.0018% $466.8k
Patricia Fili-Krushel
Independent Director0.9yrsno data0.000040% $10.4k
Neil Flanzraich
Lead Independent Director5.4yrsUS$286.56k0.015% $3.9m
Matthew Paull
Independent Director3.2yrsUS$214.06k0.0019% $482.3k
M. Ells
Founder & Executive Chairman15.1yrsUS$7.96m0.75% $194.6m
Albert Baldocchi
Independent Director23.1yrsUS$237.06k0.26% $67.3m
Ali Namvar
Independent Director3.2yrsUS$220.06k0.011% $2.8m
Scott Maw
Director0.9yrsno datano data
Robin Hickenlooper
Independent Director3.2yrsUS$217.06kno data

3.2yrs

Average Tenure

55.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: CMG's board of directors are considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
  • Ticker: CMG
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1993
  • Industry: Restaurants
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: US$25.931b
  • Shares outstanding: 27.77m
  • Website: https://www.chipotle.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
  • 610 Newport Center Drive
  • Suite 1300
  • Newport Beach
  • California
  • 92660
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
CMGNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJan 2006
C9FDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJan 2006
CMG *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon StockMXMXNJan 2006
0HXWLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJan 2006
CHMGWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesCommon StockATEURJan 2006
C1MG34BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)BDR EACH 20 REPR 1 COMBRBRLJan 2020

Biography

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of December 31, 2019, it operated 2,580 restaurants in the United States; 39 international Chipotle restaurants; and 3 non-Chipotle restaurants. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/20 01:03
End of Day Share Price2020/02/19 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.