CMG Stock Overview
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Competitors
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$1,631.09|
|52 Week High||US$1,958.55|
|52 Week Low||US$1,196.28|
|1 Month Change||29.30%|
|3 Month Change||23.73%|
|1 Year Change||-13.12%|
|3 Year Change||101.40%|
|5 Year Change||413.05%|
|Change since IPO||3,607.02%|
Recent News & Updates
Chipotle Mexican Grill: Solid Second Quarter Results Further Establish Long-Term Outperformance Thesis
F2Q2022 revenues of ~$2.21 billion missed analyst projections by ~$40 million. EPS of $9.25 beat consensus estimates by $0.21. Digital transactions remained steady despite significant surge in dine-in customers. We’re maintaining our 1-year Price Target of $2,020/share. Reiterate Buy Rating. Investment Conclusion Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) delivered outstanding F2Q2022 financial results. The outperformance was driven by double digit growth in system sales and same-store sales derived from substantial expansion in dine-in transactions and sustained off-premise orders. Accordingly, supported by a decrease in delivery transactions (which generate relatively low margins), and revenue leverage from the sharply higher retail sales, as fixed cost/dollar of sales declined, restaurant level margins advanced considerably, inching closer to peak levels, experienced prior to the food contamination incidences that plagued the company during CY2015. That margins expanded despite cost inflation related to commodities and hourly wages, was encouraging. Moreover, annual average unit volumes reached $2.8 million (best stores are generating between $6 million and $7 million), extending significantly towards the $3 million target. CMG added 42 new stores (of which 32 feature Chipotlanes) to its restaurant footprint ending the quarter with 3,052 outlets. Over the next couple of quarters, we expect the strong momentum in sales to continue, fueled by the persistent uptrend in dine-in sales, sustained digital sales, and the launch of a new menu item, the garlic guajillo steak. In addition, we don't view a potential economic downturn as a gating factor for sales (although the frequency of visits associated with the lower-income group is clearly declining), as CMG's customers belong to the higher income bracket, for the most part. Further, despite some decrease in sales related to college towns as kids return home for the Summer, overall, we expect seasonality to support sales, during the third quarter. Moreover, we anticipate sequential improvement in margins at the restaurant level, driven by some easing in commodity cost inflation, stabilizing federal wage growth, improved labor productivity due to the deployment of a digital scheduling tool, a planned price increase, and the impact of operating initiatives being rolled-out. Similarly, we expect leverage at the company level, due to decrease in SG&A spending, and economies of scale related to lower marginal costs associated with corporate infrastructure, marketing, and technology. Therefore, buoyed by solid upside in revenues and margins, earnings and free cash flows are likely to surge considerably, during FY2022, in our opinion. For the year, CMG plans on launching between 235 and 250 new restaurants, of which ~80% are expected to include a Chipotlane. In addition, the firm has guided to F3Q2022 same-store sales in a range of mid-to-high single digits. During July, CMG's same-store sales were trending at around mid-single digits. Longer-term, CMG's planned growth in footprint to 7,000 restaurants within ~10 years, from the current ~3,000 will drive the majority of its growth. Given that the massive expansion in the number of restaurants is likely to be focused on under penetrated regions, we do not expect cannibalization in sales or declines in average unit volumes, as new units are established. Additional growth will be derived from an increase in same-store sales attributed to: Chipotlanes, menu innovation, the loyalty program, some conversion of dine-in orders to digital, and the continued growth of off-premise sales. Given the potential significant expansion in sales, margins are likely to increase as marginal fixed costs decrease substantially and economies of scale related to corporate spending, advertising, and the digital platform are secured. As a flow-through of higher sales and improved margins, we expect substantial growth in earnings and free cash flows over an elongated time horizon. Considering that F2Q2022 financial results have further established our strong long-term view on CMG, we are confident that the firm will handily meet and exceed our normalized 10-year revenue growth rate of 17%, which incorporates a 10-year store count of 7,000 and average unit volumes of over $3 million. Therefore, we are maintaining our 1-year Price Target of $2,020/share for CMG. Reiterate Buy Rating. (Please go through our initiation report "Chipotle Mexican Grill: Turnaround Story With Substantial Growth Potential" and related notes for our long term opinion on the stock). Key Takeaways From The Second Quarter F2Q2022 Results Summary. For the quarter, CMG reported revenues of ~$2.21 billion (+17% compared to F2Q2021) missing analyst expectations of ~$2.25 billion, and earnings per share of $9.25 (+40.2% on a year over year basis) was above consensus estimates of $9.04. Excluding extraordinary items, earnings per share would have been $9.30, representing an increase of 24.7% from F2Q2021. In addition, compared to the same quarter last year, same-store sales increased by 10.1% over the second quarter. Net income for the period was ~$260 million reflecting an expansion of 38.2% on a year-over-year basis. Restaurant margins of 25.2% increased by 70 bps compared to the prior year's same quarter. Labor Management Tool Represents Key Growth Driver. CMG's is currently rolling-out technology which is designed to optimally schedule employees based on labor requirements on the front make-line as well as the digital make-line. In addition, strategies are being implemented to orient the newer staff, particularly that hired on during and after the pandemic, including front-line workers and General Managers, on the mechanics of the firm's peak throughput that was achieved during 2013 and 2014. Based on management commentary, a five entrée increase every 15 minutes during regular hours, could potentially translate to 1% of same-store sales growth for that day. Considering that the current throughput is 25 entrees/every 15 minutes compared to the peak throughput of between 30 to 33 entrées/every 15 minutes evidenced during the 2013/2014 time frame, there appears significant opportunity for same-store sales growth, as the initiatives being rolled out to ignite throughput begin to gain traction. International Opportunity Gathering Momentum. CMG's business outside the U.S, continued to shine with Canadian restaurants generating annual average unit volumes consistent with those associated with domestic restaurants. In addition, same-store sales continued to advance substantially in the region. Given the recent addition of the loyalty program to the Canadian business, we expect sales momentum to continue, as transactions associated with rewards platforms are considered as digital sales, which are associated with superior margins and incremental sales, as customers that transact online, order more frequently and with higher check values. Beyond North America, CMG's business in Europe continues to develop, with improving unit economics, the roll-out of digital platforms, and opening of smaller footprint store formats. In addition, additional territories in the region are being tested under CMG's stage-gate process. In that regard, supported by the launch of five new restaurants over the past 18 months and the roll-out of the digital ecosystem, CMG's U.K. business has been outperforming, as per management. In addition, the digital platform associated with the company's French business is expected to be introduced shortly. Plant Protein As Center-Of-Plate Item On Cards. CMG typically introduces two to three new menu items every year, comprised mainly of limited time offerings. During FY2022, the firm has launched Pollo Asado and Chorizo, and a new menu item, the garlic guajillo steak is nearing debut, having already passed the stage-gate process. Given the increasing attention that plant-based foods are gathering, CMG is actively expending efforts to identify a substantive plant based menu item that would be consistent with the company's food with integrity ethos and also delicious from a culinary standpoint. To support the objective, CMG has invested in an early stage plant food company called Meati, that is focused on developing mushroom based meat alternatives. Recall that CMG has actively supported the plant food trend, launching the tofu based Sofrita in 2014, which remains on the menu as a permanent item, and introducing the pea based Chorizo as a limited time offer, earlier this year.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Has More To Do To Multiply In Value Going Forward
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Typically, we'll want...
|CMG||US Hospitality||US Market|
Return vs Industry: CMG exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned -17.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: CMG underperformed the US Market which returned -11.6% over the past year.
|CMG Average Weekly Movement||6.6%|
|Hospitality Industry Average Movement||8.7%|
|Market Average Movement||7.8%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||16.9%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||3.2%|
Stable Share Price: CMG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.
Volatility Over Time: CMG's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Fundamentals Summary
|CMG fundamental statistics|
Is CMG overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|CMG income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$5.05b|
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||27.23|
|Net Profit Margin||9.28%|
How did CMG perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
Is CMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 1/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMG?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is CMG's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does CMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
|CMG PE Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PE||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
YUM Yum! Brands
QSR Restaurant Brands International
YUMC Yum China Holdings
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (59.9x) compared to the peer average (23.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does CMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (59.9x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (17.7x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is CMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PE Ratio||59.9x|
|Fair PE Ratio||46.9x|
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (59.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46.9x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of CMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: CMG ($1631.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1648.03)
Significantly Below Fair Value: CMG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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How is Chipotle Mexican Grill forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 28 analysts?
Future Growth Score5/6
Future Growth Score 5/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: CMG's forecast earnings growth (22.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: CMG's earnings (22.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.5% per year).
High Growth Earnings: CMG's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: CMG's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8% per year).
High Growth Revenue: CMG's revenue (12.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: CMG's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (50.9%).
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How has Chipotle Mexican Grill performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score4/6
Past Performance Score 4/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: CMG has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: CMG's current net profit margins (9.3%) are higher than last year (8.6%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CMG's earnings have grown significantly by 34.3% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: CMG's earnings growth over the past year (29%) is below its 5-year average (34.3% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: CMG earnings growth over the past year (29%) underperformed the Hospitality industry 52.4%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: CMG's Return on Equity (35.1%) is considered high.
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How is Chipotle Mexican Grill's financial position?
Financial Health Score5/6
Financial Health Score 5/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: CMG's short term assets ($1.0B) exceed its short term liabilities ($831.6M).
Long Term Liabilities: CMG's short term assets ($1.0B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($3.6B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: CMG is debt free.
Reducing Debt: CMG has not had any debt for past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: CMG has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.
Interest Coverage: CMG has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.
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What is Chipotle Mexican Grill current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 0/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Forecast Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CMG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CMG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CMG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CMG's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CMG has not reported any payouts.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Brian Niccol (48 yo)
Mr. Brian R. Niccol serves as Independent Director at KB Home since July 8, 2021. He has been Chief Executive Officer and Director at Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., since March 05, 2018 and has been its Cha...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Brian's total compensation ($USD17.88M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.88M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Brian's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Experienced Management: CMG's management team is considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: CMG's board of directors are considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: CMG insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
- Ticker: CMG
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 1993
- Industry: Restaurants
- Sector: Consumer Services
- Implied Market Cap: US$45.287b
- Shares outstanding: 27.76m
- Website: https://www.chipotle.com
Number of Employees
- Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
- 610 Newport Center Drive
- Suite 1400
- Newport Beach
- United States
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/08/11 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/08/11 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.