Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

NYSE:CMG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$41.4b

Chipotle Mexican Grill Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Chipotle Mexican Grill is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11% and 9.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 13.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 62.4% in 3 years.

Key information

11.0%

Earnings growth rate

13.46%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth17.9%
Revenue growth rate9.1%
Future return on equity62.44%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated01 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysts Are Updating Their Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

Jul 26
Analysts Are Updating Their Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

Recent updates

Chipotle Q1 2026 Results Preview: It's All About Transactions Growth

Apr 27

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): The Digital Burrito Powerhouse Tests Throughput and Loyalty

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) , the global vanguard of the fast-casual movement, enters the weekend of Sunday, April 26, 2026 , in a state of calculated expansion. The company is scheduled to release its Q1 2026 earnings report on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, after the market close.

CMG: 2026 Menu Initiatives Are Expected To Support Higher P E Multiple

Chipotle Mexican Grill's updated analyst price target reflects a modest trim of fair value to $43.66, with analysts broadly fine-tuning their models as they weigh slightly higher discount rates, adjusted long term P/E assumptions, and a recent wave of small downward target revisions across major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Chipotle Mexican Grill points to a period of recalibration, with many firms trimming price targets by small increments and a few highlighting more constructive long term views.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Reports Resilient FY 2025 Earnings Despite Margin Pressures and Heavy Capital Returns

Analyst: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) Executive Summary Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. delivered a solid financial performance for the year ended December 31, 2025, with total revenue rising to $11.93 billion, reflecting +5.4% YoY growth driven primarily by strong food and beverage sales.

CMG: 2026 Sales Initiatives And Buybacks Will Support Higher P E Multiple

Analysts trimmed their Chipotle Mexican Grill price target by about $0.50 to reflect slightly lower fair value, a modestly higher discount rate, and marginally softer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, partly offset by a higher future P/E multiple supported by recent mixed but generally constructive research commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Chipotle Mexican Grill reflects a mix of cautious fine tuning on price targets and supportive views on the business model, management, and long term growth potential.

CMG: 2026 Sales Initiatives And Buybacks Will Sustain Elevated P E Multiple

The analyst price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill has been trimmed by about $0.07 to reflect slightly lower modeled fair value, even as analysts highlight modest improvements in revenue growth, profit margin assumptions, and a still elevated future P/E, informed by a mix of recent target cuts, fresh Buy initiations, and sector-wide re-rating work for 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Chipotle Mexican Grill reflects an active debate around how much investors should pay for the company given mixed sector trends, shifting consumer behavior, and company specific execution questions.

CMG: 2026 Sales Initiatives And Buybacks Will Support Multiple Expansion

Analysts made a small upward adjustment to their Chipotle price target, moving it by about $0.33, as they weighed newly bullish views tied to potential sales drivers and multiple expansion against a recent wave of modest target trims from other firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Chipotle shows a split view, with some firms highlighting long term growth drivers and others focusing on consumer headwinds and execution risk.

CMG: 2026 Marketing Firepower And Buybacks Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts have made a small upward adjustment to their Chipotle price target to about $44. This reflects slightly lower assumed discount rates and a modestly higher future P/E multiple, along with fine-tuned revenue growth and margin expectations.

CMG: 2026 Unit Expansion And Share Repurchases Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts now see slightly lower upside for Chipotle, trimming the price target in line with a modest reduction in fair value to about $44.24 per share after reassessing the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Chipotle Mexican Grill has become more finely balanced, with several small downward price target revisions offset by a cluster of earlier target increases and a few rating changes.

CMG: 2026 Traffic Recovery And Unit Expansion Will Drive Balanced Risk Reward

Analysts have nudged their Chipotle Mexican Grill fair value estimate higher to about $45 per share from roughly $44, citing a slightly lower discount rate, modest tweaks to long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a marginally higher future P/E multiple that reflect recent shifts in Street price targets and mixed but engaged research coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed picture for Chipotle Mexican Grill, with price targets moving in both directions and opinions divided on how quickly the company can work through current traffic and macro pressures.

CMG: 2026 Unit Expansion And Traffic Recovery Efforts Will Shape Balanced Outlook

Analysts have lifted the Chipotle Mexican Grill fair value estimate slightly, with the price target moving from US$43.18 to US$44.12. This reflects modest tweaks to discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions after a mix of target cuts on macro and traffic headwinds, as well as fresh target hikes tied to updated 2026 restaurant sector outlooks.

CMG: 2026 Unit Expansion Will Drive Long Term Upside Despite Near Term Traffic Headwinds

Analysts have modestly reduced their average price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill by about $10 per share to the mid $40s, citing weaker than expected Q3 traffic and comp trends, macro driven consumer softness, and lowered same store sales guidance, even as they highlight longer term benefits from menu innovation, value focused marketing, and continued unit growth. Analyst Commentary Analysts broadly agree that Chipotle is navigating a tougher operating backdrop, but they differ on how quickly the brand can reaccelerate traffic and comps and how much of the long term growth story remains intact at current valuation levels.

CMG: Robust 2026 Unit Expansion Is Expected To Drive Long Term Upside

The Analyst Price Target for Chipotle Mexican Grill has been cut meaningfully, with analysts trimming expectations by roughly $10 per share as persistent macro headwinds, softer traffic, and repeated same store sales guidance cuts temper the near term outlook, despite confidence in the longer term unit growth story. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary reflects a more cautious stance on Chipotle in the near term, with widespread price target reductions but a generally constructive view on the multiyear unit growth and margin opportunity.

CMG: Robust Unit Expansion Plans Will Lead to Improved Performance

Analysts have lowered their average price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill, cutting it from approximately $45.09 to $43.18 per share. Ongoing macroeconomic pressures and softer same-store sales trends continue to weigh on the company's near-term outlook.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Stocks Pounded By 25% But Not Lagging Market On Growth Or Pricing

Nov 07
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Stocks Pounded By 25% But Not Lagging Market On Growth Or Pricing

CMG: Share Repurchases And Menu Revamps Will Drive Stronger Performance Ahead

Chipotle Mexican Grill's analyst price target has been lowered significantly, dropping from approximately $54 to about $45. Analysts cite ongoing traffic challenges, softer same-store sales growth, and mounting macroeconomic headwinds following disappointing third-quarter results.

Restaurant Expansion In Mexico And Europe Will Boost Performance

Chipotle Mexican Grill's analyst price target has been reduced from approximately $56.94 to $54.15. Analysts cite near-term industry headwinds, including choppy demand, softer sales trends, and cautious sector outlooks as factors driving the adjustment.

Restaurant Expansion In Mexico And Europe Will Boost Performance

Analysts have lowered their price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill to approximately $56.94 from about $57.75. This modest reduction reflects tempered revenue growth expectations, despite recent performance improvements and ongoing industry challenges.

Restaurant Expansion In Mexico And Europe Will Boost Performance

Analysts modestly lowered Chipotle's consensus price target to $57.75, citing disappointing Q2 results, macro headwinds, and heightened competitive pressures, though some remain constructive on resilient demand, recent menu innovation, and the company's long-term growth outlook. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite improved risk/reward following a 31% YTD selloff, with expectations that market pessimism regarding same-store-sales is overly priced in.

The Price Is Right For Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Even After Diving 26%

Aug 01
The Price Is Right For Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Even After Diving 26%

Analysts Are Updating Their Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

Jul 26
Analysts Are Updating Their Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

Is Now The Time To Put Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) On Your Watchlist?

Jul 14
Is Now The Time To Put Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) On Your Watchlist?

Should You Investigate Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) At US$51.47?

May 21
Should You Investigate Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) At US$51.47?

Chipotle Q1 Preview: Tariffs Hurt Them (Deep Dive)

Apr 22

Chipotle: Dark Pool Buys And Long-Term Growth Make It A Buy

Mar 19

Chipotle: Rare Opportunity To Buy At A Truly Attractive Price

Feb 28

Chipotle: Tariff Fears Overblown, Dips Are Tasty For Long-Term Investors

Feb 05

Chipotle: It Still Has Fuel In The Tank

Jan 21

Chipotle: In A Tough Spot As Price Hikes May Trigger Further Sales Deterioration

Dec 20

It's Time To Get Mexican Food: Chipotle Is A Buy (Technical Analysis)

Nov 25

Chipotle: Both The Business And The Investment Are Very Simple

Nov 07

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:CMG - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202815,9461,9391,8812,73414
12/31/202714,3891,7051,5992,41035
12/31/202612,9801,4381,4872,19435
3/31/202612,1391,4521,5062,208N/A
12/31/202511,9261,5361,4482,114N/A
9/30/202511,7871,5371,5732,215N/A
6/30/202511,5781,5421,4662,092N/A
3/31/202511,4871,5611,4872,093N/A
12/31/202411,3141,5341,5112,105N/A
9/30/202410,9851,4841,2511,844N/A
6/30/202410,6631,4101,3011,878N/A
3/31/202410,2051,2961,3251,898N/A
12/31/20239,8721,2291,2231,783N/A
9/30/20239,5361,1701,3871,920N/A
6/30/20239,2841,1141,2511,791N/A
3/31/20238,9831,0329921,495N/A
12/31/20228,6358998441,323N/A
9/30/20228,4158099031,360N/A
6/30/20228,1477568621,289N/A
3/31/20227,8266848071,259N/A
12/31/20217,5476538401,282N/A
9/30/20217,194710512959N/A
6/30/20216,843586502922N/A
3/31/20216,315406405788N/A
12/31/20205,985356290664N/A
9/30/20205,817237393735N/A
6/30/20205,619256369726N/A
3/31/20205,689338374721N/A
12/31/20195,586350N/A722N/A
9/30/20195,371310N/A664N/A
6/30/20195,193249N/A627N/A
3/31/20195,025205N/A603N/A
12/31/20184,865177N/A622N/A
9/30/20184,750188N/A581N/A
6/30/20184,653170N/A520N/A
3/31/20184,556190N/A519N/A
12/31/20174,476176N/A468N/A
9/30/20174,401148N/A447N/A
6/30/20174,310137N/A413N/A
3/31/20174,13995N/A438N/A
12/31/20163,90423N/A355N/A
9/30/20163,86775N/A376N/A
6/30/20164,047212N/A462N/A
3/31/20164,247327N/A502N/A
12/31/20154,501476N/A683N/A
9/30/20154,574529N/A721N/A
6/30/20154,441515N/A723N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CMG's forecast earnings growth (11% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: CMG's earnings (11% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CMG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CMG's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CMG's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CMG's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (62.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/06 23:21
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/06 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is covered by 59 analysts. 35 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
David TarantinoBaird
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays