Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

NYSE:CMG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$84.6b

Chipotle Mexican Grill Valuation

Is CMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CMG ($62.01) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($56.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMG?

Key metric: As CMG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CMG. This is calculated by dividing CMG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CMG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio57x
EarningsUS$1.48b
Market CapUS$84.56b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.6x
SBUX Starbucks
30.9x10.5%US$116.2b
YUM Yum! Brands
24.7x8.0%US$37.8b
QSR Restaurant Brands International
17.6x10.9%US$31.1b
MCD McDonald's
25.2x6.6%US$208.0b
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill
57x15.5%US$84.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57x) compared to the peer average (24.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GDHG Golden Heaven Group Holdings
3.7xn/aUS$6.21m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
CCL Carnival Corporation &
n/a19.8%US$24.00
No more companies available in this PE range
CMG 57.0xIndustry Avg. 25.0xNo. of Companies15PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (25x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio57x
Fair PE Ratio32.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$62.01
US$64.64
+4.2%
11.3%US$72.00US$42.00n/a31
Nov ’25US$58.59
US$64.28
+9.7%
11.8%US$72.00US$42.00n/a29
Oct ’25US$57.17
US$61.99
+8.4%
11.9%US$73.00US$43.00n/a31
Sep ’25US$56.08
US$61.93
+10.4%
11.8%US$73.00US$43.00n/a31
Aug ’25US$53.46
US$63.42
+18.6%
11.8%US$80.00US$43.00n/a31
Jul ’25US$61.81
US$65.89
+6.6%
11.7%US$80.00US$40.00n/a31
Jun ’25US$62.59
US$64.47
+3.0%
10.4%US$72.00US$41.00n/a30
May ’25US$62.77
US$64.00
+2.0%
10.5%US$72.00US$41.00n/a31
Apr ’25US$57.54
US$56.03
-2.6%
10.7%US$66.00US$39.00n/a30
Mar ’25US$53.78
US$54.58
+1.5%
9.2%US$62.00US$39.00n/a30
Feb ’25US$48.84
US$48.58
-0.5%
11.2%US$60.00US$36.00n/a30
Jan ’25US$45.74
US$44.75
-2.2%
9.7%US$53.00US$36.00n/a31
Dec ’24US$44.68
US$43.47
-2.7%
9.8%US$51.40US$36.00n/a31
Nov ’24US$39.73
US$42.99
+8.2%
9.3%US$51.40US$36.00US$58.5930
Oct ’24US$36.64
US$43.21
+17.9%
9.1%US$51.40US$34.40US$57.1730
Sep ’24US$38.77
US$43.18
+11.4%
9.1%US$51.40US$34.40US$56.0830
Aug ’24US$39.10
US$43.28
+10.7%
9.1%US$51.40US$34.00US$53.4630
Jul ’24US$42.78
US$41.93
-2.0%
9.5%US$47.00US$31.00US$61.8130
Jun ’24US$41.65
US$41.38
-0.7%
9.1%US$47.00US$31.00US$62.5929
May ’24US$40.79
US$40.43
-0.9%
10.0%US$46.00US$31.00US$62.7731
Apr ’24US$34.17
US$36.30
+6.3%
8.7%US$41.68US$31.00US$57.5431
Mar ’24US$29.70
US$36.20
+21.9%
8.8%US$41.68US$31.00US$53.7832
Feb ’24US$33.05
US$35.38
+7.0%
7.8%US$40.00US$29.00US$48.8432
Jan ’24US$27.75
US$35.59
+28.3%
7.5%US$40.00US$30.20US$45.7432
Dec ’23US$32.52
US$35.90
+10.4%
10.0%US$50.00US$30.20US$44.6832
Nov ’23US$29.55
US$35.89
+21.4%
10.0%US$50.00US$30.20US$39.7332

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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