Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

NYSE:CMG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$84.9b

Chipotle Mexican Grill Valuation

Is CMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CMG ($62.24) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($56.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMG?

Key metric: As CMG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CMG. This is calculated by dividing CMG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CMG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio57.2x
EarningsUS$1.48b
Market CapUS$84.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.5x
SBUX Starbucks
27.1x10.1%US$101.9b
YUM Yum! Brands
24.7x7.9%US$37.7b
MCD McDonald's
25.5x6.6%US$210.7b
QSR Restaurant Brands International
16.7x10.8%US$29.7b
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill
57.2x15.5%US$84.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.2x) compared to the peer average (23.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
CMG 57.2xIndustry Avg. 23.8xNo. of Companies14PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.2x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (23.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio57.2x
Fair PE Ratio32.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$62.24
US$65.64
+5.5%
11.8%US$75.00US$42.00n/a31
Dec ’25US$61.52
US$64.64
+5.1%
11.3%US$72.00US$42.00n/a31
Nov ’25US$58.59
US$64.28
+9.7%
11.8%US$72.00US$42.00n/a29
Oct ’25US$57.17
US$61.99
+8.4%
11.9%US$73.00US$43.00n/a31
Sep ’25US$56.08
US$61.93
+10.4%
11.8%US$73.00US$43.00n/a31
Aug ’25US$53.46
US$63.42
+18.6%
11.8%US$80.00US$43.00n/a31
Jul ’25US$61.81
US$65.89
+6.6%
11.7%US$80.00US$40.00n/a31
Jun ’25US$62.59
US$64.47
+3.0%
10.4%US$72.00US$41.00n/a30
May ’25US$62.77
US$64.00
+2.0%
10.5%US$72.00US$41.00n/a31
Apr ’25US$57.54
US$56.03
-2.6%
10.7%US$66.00US$39.00n/a30
Mar ’25US$53.78
US$54.58
+1.5%
9.2%US$62.00US$39.00n/a30
Feb ’25US$48.84
US$48.58
-0.5%
11.2%US$60.00US$36.00n/a30
Jan ’25US$45.74
US$44.75
-2.2%
9.7%US$53.00US$36.00n/a31
Dec ’24US$44.68
US$43.47
-2.7%
9.8%US$51.40US$36.00US$61.5231
Nov ’24US$39.73
US$42.99
+8.2%
9.3%US$51.40US$36.00US$58.5930
Oct ’24US$36.64
US$43.21
+17.9%
9.1%US$51.40US$34.40US$57.1730
Sep ’24US$38.77
US$43.18
+11.4%
9.1%US$51.40US$34.40US$56.0830
Aug ’24US$39.10
US$43.28
+10.7%
9.1%US$51.40US$34.00US$53.4630
Jul ’24US$42.78
US$41.93
-2.0%
9.5%US$47.00US$31.00US$61.8130
Jun ’24US$41.65
US$41.38
-0.7%
9.1%US$47.00US$31.00US$62.5929
May ’24US$40.79
US$40.43
-0.9%
10.0%US$46.00US$31.00US$62.7731
Apr ’24US$34.17
US$36.30
+6.3%
8.7%US$41.68US$31.00US$57.5431
Mar ’24US$29.70
US$36.20
+21.9%
8.8%US$41.68US$31.00US$53.7832
Feb ’24US$33.05
US$35.38
+7.0%
7.8%US$40.00US$29.00US$48.8432
Jan ’24US$27.75
US$35.59
+28.3%
7.5%US$40.00US$30.20US$45.7432
Dec ’23US$32.52
US$35.90
+10.4%
10.0%US$50.00US$30.20US$44.6832

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 04:32
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is covered by 67 analysts. 33 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
David TarantinoBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research