Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

NYSE:CMG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$81.1b

Chipotle Mexican Grill Valuation

Is CMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CMG ($2957.6) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($1821.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CMG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA43.8x
PEG Ratio4.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.1x
SBUX Starbucks
22.4x11.2%US$96.1b
YUM Yum! Brands
24.3x7.1%US$38.8b
QSR Restaurant Brands International
18.8x12.5%US$31.9b
MCD McDonald's
22.8x6.7%US$193.1b
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill
66x15.8%US$81.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (66x) compared to the peer average (22.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (66x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (19.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio66x
Fair PE Ratio35.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (66x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$2,957.60
US$2,903.81
-1.8%
12.2%US$3,400.00US$1,950.00n/a31
Apr ’25US$2,877.00
US$2,801.40
-2.6%
10.7%US$3,300.00US$1,950.00n/a30
Mar ’25US$2,688.78
US$2,728.90
+1.5%
9.2%US$3,100.00US$1,950.00n/a30
Feb ’25US$2,442.02
US$2,429.07
-0.5%
11.2%US$3,000.00US$1,800.00n/a30
Jan ’25US$2,286.96
US$2,237.29
-2.2%
9.7%US$2,650.00US$1,800.00n/a31
Dec ’24US$2,233.83
US$2,173.58
-2.7%
9.8%US$2,570.00US$1,800.00n/a31
Nov ’24US$1,986.64
US$2,149.40
+8.2%
9.3%US$2,570.00US$1,800.00n/a30
Oct ’24US$1,831.83
US$2,160.57
+17.9%
9.1%US$2,570.00US$1,720.00n/a30
Sep ’24US$1,938.61
US$2,158.90
+11.4%
9.1%US$2,570.00US$1,720.00n/a30
Aug ’24US$1,955.00
US$2,164.07
+10.7%
9.1%US$2,570.00US$1,700.00n/a30
Jul ’24US$2,139.00
US$2,096.67
-2.0%
9.5%US$2,350.00US$1,550.00n/a30
Jun ’24US$2,082.33
US$2,068.79
-0.7%
9.1%US$2,350.00US$1,550.00n/a29
May ’24US$2,039.28
US$2,021.52
-0.9%
10.0%US$2,300.00US$1,550.00n/a31
Apr ’24US$1,708.29
US$1,815.10
+6.3%
8.7%US$2,084.00US$1,550.00US$2,877.0031
Mar ’24US$1,484.77
US$1,810.16
+21.9%
8.8%US$2,084.00US$1,550.00US$2,688.7832
Feb ’24US$1,652.56
US$1,769.06
+7.0%
7.8%US$2,000.00US$1,450.00US$2,442.0232
Jan ’24US$1,387.49
US$1,779.56
+28.3%
7.5%US$2,000.00US$1,510.00US$2,286.9632
Dec ’23US$1,625.83
US$1,794.94
+10.4%
10.0%US$2,500.00US$1,510.00US$2,233.8332
Nov ’23US$1,477.72
US$1,794.63
+21.4%
10.0%US$2,500.00US$1,510.00US$1,986.6432
Oct ’23US$1,502.76
US$1,787.03
+18.9%
11.3%US$2,500.00US$1,400.00US$1,831.8332
Sep ’23US$1,613.15
US$1,748.50
+8.4%
12.2%US$2,500.00US$1,400.00US$1,938.6130
Aug ’23US$1,557.38
US$1,737.07
+11.5%
12.1%US$2,500.00US$1,400.00US$1,955.0030
Jul ’23US$1,306.80
US$1,843.99
+41.1%
13.7%US$2,500.00US$1,335.00US$2,139.0030
Jun ’23US$1,374.72
US$1,858.99
+35.2%
12.9%US$2,500.00US$1,530.00US$2,082.3330
May ’23US$1,455.61
US$1,887.67
+29.7%
11.6%US$2,500.00US$1,530.00US$2,039.2830
Apr ’23US$1,594.04
US$1,899.31
+19.2%
10.9%US$2,500.00US$1,510.00US$1,708.2929

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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