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Fully Permitted Gold Mine with 50 Baggers Potential

Published
19 Sep 25
RockeTeller's Fair Value
CA$41.00
98.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
19 Sep
CA$0.54
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1Y
300.0%
7D
58.8%

Author's Valuation

CA$41.0

98.7% undervalued intrinsic discount

RockeTeller's Fair Value

1911 Gold – Updated Snapshot (September 2025)

Latest verified facts

  • The company commenced a PEA on the True North restart in late August 2025 with AMC Consultants; a short trial mining campaign (3–5 months) is planned to validate methods and economics ahead of a bulk sample. Newswire+1
  • Corporate presentation (Sept 9, 2025) shows 262.32M shares outstanding (296.19M fully diluted) and ~C$15.2M cash including a recent financing. The investor “Stock Information” page lists ~251.26M shares but appears slightly older; use 262.32M basic for modeling. 1911 Gold+1
  • Public materials reiterate a unique position at the True North mine & mill (permitted ~1,300 tpd) within the Rice Lake district and an intention to leverage existing infrastructure for a restart. 1911 Gold+1

Latest AISC

  • 1911 Gold is not yet back in commercial production; there is no official AISC published for the restart. ($1,700/oz AISC for sensitivities is fine as a placeholder, but it is not company guidance.) Newswire

Reality-check on the user timeline (aligning with current disclosures)

  • “PEA Q1 2026, bulk sample Q2 2026, PFS Q4 2027, production Q1 2027.” Based on the company’s Aug 28, 2025 PEA start and stated plan, a more consistent sequence is: PEA (initiated late-2025)trial mining / bulk sample mid-2026economic decision & possible PFS into 2027 → construction decision thereafter. Production before PFS completion is unlikely; treat Q1 2027 production as optimistic unless the trial/bulk sample justifies an accelerated plan. Newswire+1

Updated risks

  • Study/Timing risk: PEA only just started; outcomes on grade, recoveries, and capex/opex may shift, affecting start dates. Newswire
  • Cost uncertainty: No AISC yet; inflation, power, labor, and underground development could push costs above placeholder assumptions.
  • Financing risk: Bulk sample profits (if any) are uncertain; additional capital may be required, potentially dilutive despite your “no equity” plan.
  • Restart execution: Underground restarts often encounter dilution, ground conditions, and ramp constraints that diverge from plans.
  • Permitting/ESG: The site is permitted and in Canada, but trial mining and any plant/mine modifications still require regulatory steps. 1911 Gold
  • Commodity price exposure: Sensitivities rely on very high gold/silver prices; downside compresses FCF and multiples.

Key catalysts (next 6–24 months)

  • PEA completion (first formal restart economics). Newswire
  • Trial mining / bulk sample results planned for mid-2026, providing reconciliation data and potential cash contribution. Junior Mining Network
  • Additional drill results across True North targets that could grow or upgrade resources. Investing News Network (INN)
  • Financing updates and any government support programs; clarity on construction decision path post-PEA/bulk sample. Junior Mining Network

Expected timeline (grounded in current disclosures)

  • H2 2025: PEA in progress; underground delineation drilling continues. Newswire
  • Mid-2026: Trial mining / bulk sample window (3–5 months) to validate the mine plan and economics. Junior Mining Network
  • 2027: Depending on PEA outcomes and bulk sample results, advance to PFS/financing and a construction decision; first production could follow thereafter (not before studies unless an accelerated path is explicitly approved). Newswire

FCF sensitivities (copy-friendly; use your production/AISC path) Method: FCF ≈ annual ounces × (price − AISC). Assumptions: AISC = US$1,700/oz (placeholder), shares = 262,320,000 basic. These are operating proxies (pre-tax, pre-interest, pre-sustaining nuances) for torque illustration.

Gold = US$4,500/oz (margin = 2,800/oz)

  • 45,000 oz (your 2027): FCF ≈ US$126M; 10× = US$1.26B~US$4.80/sh; 15× = US$7.20/sh; 20× = US$9.60/sh
  • 70,000 oz (late-2028): FCF ≈ US$196M; 10× = US$1.96B~US$7.47/sh; 15× = US$11.20/sh; 20× = US$14.94/sh
  • 100,000 oz (2029): FCF ≈ US$280M; 10× = US$2.80B~US$10.67/sh; 15× = US$16.00/sh; 20× = US$21.33/sh
  • 120,000 oz (expanded mill): FCF ≈ US$336M; 10× = US$3.36B~US$12.80/sh; 15× = US$19.20/sh; 20× = US$25.60/sh

Gold = US$5,000/oz (margin = 3,300/oz)

  • 45,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$148.5M; 10× = US$1.485B~US$5.66/sh; 15× = US$8.49/sh; 20× = US$11.32/sh
  • 70,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$231.0M; 10× = US$2.31B~US$8.81/sh; 15× = US$13.22/sh; 20× = US$17.62/sh
  • 100,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$330.0M; 10× = US$3.30B~US$12.58/sh; 15× = US$18.87/sh; 20× = US$25.16/sh
  • 120,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$396.0M; 10× = US$3.96B~US$15.09/sh; 15× = US$22.63/sh; 20× = US$30.18/sh

Cash & funding notes

  • Corporate presentation lists ~C$15.2M cash post financing (Sept 2025). Any “no dilution” plan assumes bulk-sample proceeds and non-dilutive debt suffice; treat that as aspirational until financing is finalized. 1911 Gold

Bottom line

  • 1911 Gold has turned the corner from concept to formal economic work with a PEA underway and a trial mining / bulk-sample plan for mid-2026—the right de-risking steps before construction. With a current basic share count ~262.3M, the project shows strong torque at US$4,500–US$5,000 gold under your AISC/oz path—but outcomes hinge on PEA/PFS results, bulk-sample performance, financing, and execution. Newswire+1

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Disclaimer

The user RockeTeller has a position in TSXV:AUMB. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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