Fully Permitted Gold Mine with 50 Baggers Potential

🪙 1911 Gold Corporation (TSXV: AUMB / OTC: AUMBF) – 2025 Update

Latest official info

• Shares Outstanding (basic): 251,264,152; Options: 11,230,000; Warrants: 33,699,202; Fully Diluted: 296,193,354. (1911gold.com)
• Cash: ~C$15.2M after recent financing, per corporate presentation (Sept 2025). (Simply Wall St)
• Project: True North Gold Project, Manitoba (Bissett); existing permitted 1,300 tpd mill, tailings facility, and mines in place. Infrastructure already there. (1911gold.com)
• PEA status: 1911 Gold engaged AMC Consultants on August 28, 2025 to do a Preliminary Economic Assessment, expected Q1 2026. (Newswire)
• Underground rehabilitation & exploration: rehab work nearing completion on some levels; fall drilling planned (bulk sample target zones + resource expansion). (Newswire)
• AISC: No official AISC published yet; so previous placeholder ($1,700/oz) remains assumption. (Simply Wall St)

⚠️ Risks (detailed)

• Study / Timing risk: PEA has just started; results could change assumptions on grade, recoveries, capex/opex. (Newswire)
• Cost uncertainty: Inflation, underground access challenges, power or fuel cost, etc., could push costs above placeholders.
• Financing risk: Bulk sample profit may be small or delayed; may require further equity or debt, possibly dilutive.
• Execution risk: Underground restarts often deal with unforeseen ground conditions, ramp constraints, and higher costs in early phases.
• Permitting / ESG risk: While existing permits/ infrastructure help, trials, modifications, and local/regional environmental/stakeholder approvals still needed.
• Commodity price exposure: High scenario outcomes depend heavily on gold price; downside risk if gold remains low.

⚡ Catalysts (next 6-24 months)

• PEA completion (Q1 2026) → insights on cost, mine plan, and economic viability.
• Trial mining / bulk sample (mid-2026) → test methods, recoveries, produce early ore, validate assumptions.
• Drilling across True North (San Antonio zones, etc.) → resource upgrades / extensions.
• Infrastructure rehabilitation progress (underground levels, mill readiness) → lowers startup risk.
• Clarity on financing path → project finance, debt or equity necessary for restart.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

H2 2025

• 🚧 Risks: Early execution (rehab, drilling), cost surprises, financing shortfall.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Rehabilitation of underground levels; funding in place; drill planning.

2026

• 🚧 Risks: Bulk sample underperforming (grade or recovery), delays in PEA / permitting.
• ⚡ Catalysts: PEA reports; trial mining results; drill results; stakeholder / permitting progress.

2027

• 🚧 Risks: Financing for construction; final approvals; scaling challenges.
• ⚡ Catalysts: FS (if it follows PEA); construction decision; early production ramp.

2028-2030

• 🚧 Risks: Sustaining costs, underground expansion cost, gold price downside.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Production ramp toward nameplate; cost improvements; possible M&A interest; silver/gold price tailwinds.

📊 Detailed Valuation Sensitivities

Method: FCF ≈ annual ounces × (price − AISC) Assumptions: AISC = US$1,700/oz (placeholder), shares = 262,320,000 basic

Gold = US$4,500/oz (margin = 2,800/oz)

• 45,000 oz (2027): FCF ≈ US$126M → 10× = US$1.26B → ~US$4.80/sh | 15× = ~US$7.20/sh | 20× = ~US$9.60/sh
• 70,000 oz (late-2028): FCF ≈ US$196M → 10× = US$1.96B → ~US$7.47/sh | 15× = ~US$11.20/sh | 20× = ~US$14.94/sh
• 100,000 oz (2029): FCF ≈ US$280M → 10× = US$2.80B → ~US$10.67/sh | 15× = ~US$16.00/sh | 20× = ~US$21.33/sh
• 120,000 oz (expanded mill): FCF ≈ US$336M → 10× = US$3.36B → ~US$12.80/sh | 15× = ~US$19.20/sh | 20× = ~US$25.60/sh

Gold = US$5,000/oz (margin = 3,300/oz)

• 45,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$148.5M → 10× = US$1.485B → ~US$5.66/sh | 15× ~US$8.49/sh | 20× ~US$11.32/sh
• 70,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$231.0M → 10× = US$2.31B → ~US$8.81/sh | 15× ~US$13.22/sh | 20× ~US$17.62/sh
• 100,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$330.0M → 10× = US$3.30B → ~US$12.58/sh | 15× ~US$18.87/sh | 20× ~US$25.16/sh
• 120,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$396.0M → 10× = US$3.96B → ~US$15.09/sh | 15× ~US$22.63/sh | 20× ~US$30.18/sh

📅 Expected full timeline (now → production)

• H2 2025: PEA in progress; underground rehab and delineation drilling underway. (Newswire)
• Mid-2026: Trial mining / bulk sample (3-5 months) to test methods, recoveries, resource zones. (Newswire)
• 2027: Use PEA + trial sample results to decide on FS or full construction; signaling of pre-production build.
• 2028-2029: Potential early production ramp, depending on approvals and financing.

🎯 Conclusion

✅ Basic shares ~251.3M; FD ~296.2M. Use these for your per-share modeling. (1911gold.com)

✅ No AISC published yet; your $1,700/oz assumption remains a placeholder until PEA or FS gives real numbers.

✅ Using $4,500–$5,000 gold, the FCF multiples show modest per-share value (~US$5–$30/sh depending on production scale) versus high risk.

⚠️ Key swing factors: recovery/grade from trial mining; capex/opex in PEA; financing & dilution.

🚀 If execution goes well, 1911 Gold has potential upside—but expect a multi-year path.