🧭 Big-Picture View: AUMB vs the 5 Classic Failure Modes

🧨 1. CAPEX Overruns + Dilution Risk (Highest Risk Area)

Industry Reality:

Developers fail because restart capex or operating capital balloons, forcing massive dilution.

1911 Gold Reality:

✔ Positive:

• They already have a permitted 1,300 tpd mill, tailings facility, power, underground infrastructure — HUGE advantage (avoids $200–300M of new-build capex).
• Rehab work is ongoing; costs have been manageable so far.

❌ Still High Risk Because:

• Even with existing infrastructure, underground restart costs are unpredictable (ground support, backfill, pumping, ventilation upgrades).
• The company is small-cap (251M shares basic / 296M FD) — any capital shortfall means dilution.
• The PEA in Q1 2026 will reveal real capex/opex; right now it’s unknown. They may need working capital + development capex ($20–40M?) before hitting commercial production. A realistic ballpark is ~C$30–40 million of pre-production capital to restart True North, based on what similar Manitoba “existing-mill” underground gold projects

👉 Risk Rating for 1911 Gold: HIGH

What to watch:

• Size of capital needed after PEA.
• Whether bulk sample generates meaningful cash.
• Any equity offering below $0.15–0.20 (dilution danger zone).

🧨 2. Metallurgy & Recovery Risk (Medium-High)

Industry Reality:

Underground mines often fail because recoveries are worse than study assumptions.

1911 Gold Reality:

✔ Positive:

• True North already produced gold historically — metallurgy is known, not theoretical like many new mines.
• Existing mill configuration has processed similar ore.

❌ Risks:

• Historical operations struggled with vein variability and recovery swings.
• If the bulk sample (2026) shows lower recovery or higher grind requirements, AISC can blow past US$1,700+. Any new zones (San Antonio, Deep East, etc.) may not behave the same as old True North ore.

👉 Risk Rating: MEDIUM–HIGH

What to watch:

• Bulk sample results (grade reconciliation + recoveries).
• Any mention of “recovery optimization” → code for metallurgical issues.

🧨 3. Geological / Grade Risk (High)

Industry Reality:

This kills more underground mines than anything else.

1911 Gold Reality:

✔ Positive:

• True North deposit is known and has decades of drilling.
• They are targeting specific high-grade zones for bulk sample.

❌ But Risks Are Serious:

• Historic production had grade-control problems — narrow veins, variable widths.
• Resources need upgrading → PEA → FS. Nothing is NI 43-101 reserve-class yet.
• Bulk sample in 2026 could reveal grade lower than model → restart becomes uneconomic.
• Underground rehab always exposes issues: rock quality, dilution, stope stability.

👉 Risk Rating: HIGH

What to watch:

• Bulk sample head grade vs model grade.
• Any large “adjustments” to resource in Q1 2026 PEA.

🧨 4. Permitting & ESG Risk (Low–Medium)

Industry Reality:

Even permitted mines can run into environmental, tailings, or community issues.

1911 Gold Reality:

✔ Strong Position:

• Existing mine, existing permits, existing mill, existing tailings.
• This is a brownfield restart, not a new mine application.

❌ Remaining Risks:

• Tailings expansion may be needed if production ramps to 100k+ oz/year.
• Rehabilitation zones may need new underground water permits.
• Manitoba regulators can be strict on environmental discharge.

👉 Risk Rating: LOW–MEDIUM

What to watch:

• Any EA filings for expansion.
• Tailings facility audits.

🧨 5. Jurisdiction / Political Risk (Low)

Industry Reality:

Canada is stable, but costs/regulation can creep upward.

1911 Gold Reality (Manitoba):

• Manitoba is a top-tier mining jurisdiction.
• Low probability of political intervention.
• Government generally supportive of brownfield restarts.

👉 Risk Rating: LOW

What to watch:

• None major. Just normal environmental oversight.

>>> Final view: My main concern is with their capex & dilution. A realistic ballpark is ~C$30–40 million of pre-production capital to restart True North, based on what similar Manitoba “existing-mill” underground gold projects. But in today bull market environment, it shouldn't be a problem. Expected trial production start: ~mid-2026 (3‐5 months trial). Expected full production: Not formally announced yet based on modelling estimated maybe 2027-2028 for ramp up.