A case for TSXV:AUMB to reach USD$2.69 (CAD$3.70) by 2030 (15X).

Stock Analysis: 1911 Gold Corporation (TSXV:AUMB)

Company Overview

1911 Gold Corporation is a Canada-based junior mining company focused on gold exploration and development, primarily in Manitoba’s Rice Lake greenstone belt. Its flagship asset is the True North Complex in Bissett, Manitoba, which includes a past-producing mine and mill with over 2 million ounces of historical gold production. The company holds a 61,647-hectare land package, including the True North mine, Rice Lake exploration properties, Apex project (near Snow Lake, Manitoba), and Denton-Keefer project (Timmins, Ontario). As of November 2024, the True North project’s updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) includes:

• Indicated Resources: 3.52 million tonnes at 4.4 g/t gold (499,000 oz)
• Inferred Resources: 5.49 million tonnes at 3.65 g/t gold (644,000 oz)

The company employs a “hub-and-spoke” model, aiming to process satellite deposits (e.g., Ogama-Rockland, Central Manitoba) at the True North mill (the mill is already permitted and worth more than the market cap of the entire company $33 vs $300). Recent activities include exploration drilling, tailings reprocessing, and a partnership with Grid Metals for lithium processing at the True North mill.

Current Stock Performance (as of June 25, 2025)

• Stock Price: CAD $0.24 (USD $0.178, using 1 CAD = 0.74 USD)
• Market Capitalization: CAD $45.91M (USD $33.97M)
• 52-Week Performance: Up 144.44% over the past year, but volatile with a 16% weekly volatility and a beta of 2.11, indicating high market sensitivity.
• Recent Financials: Q1 2025 net income of CAD -$3.94M (USD -$2.92M), down 54.98% from the prior quarter’s CAD -$2.54M (USD -$1.88M). No dividends paid.
• Financing: Raised CAD $11.5M (USD $8.51M) via a “bought deal” private placement in June 2025 to fund exploration and working capital.
• Technical Indicators: Strong Buy signal based on moving averages, with 3 bullish, 1 bearish, and 1 neutral indicators.

Macroeconomic Assumptions and Their Impact

The specified economic conditions significantly influence 1911 Gold’s operations and valuation, especially given its gold focus and exploration-stage status.

1. Gold at USD $5,000/oz:
   • A gold price of $5,000/oz (a 64% increase from ~$3,050/oz in March 2025) reflects a strong bull market, likely driven by inflation, geopolitical tensions, or currency devaluation.
   • Impact: High gold prices enhance the economic viability of 1911 Gold’s True North project, increasing revenue potential and making lower-grade deposits profitable. Successful exploration could significantly expand resources, boosting investor confidence.
2. Silver at USD $100/oz:
   • Silver at $100/oz (up from ~$30/oz in 2025) suggests parallel precious metals strength, though 1911 Gold primarily explores for gold.
   • Impact: Minimal direct impact, as silver is not a core focus. However, high silver prices could increase costs for industrial inputs (e.g., equipment), slightly offsetting cost savings from low oil prices.
3. Oil at USD $60/bbl:
   • Oil at $60/bbl (down from $73.56/bbl in June 2025) reduces energy and transportation costs.
   • Impact: Lower oil prices decrease operating expenses for mining and milling, improving margins. This is critical for 1911 Gold, which is pre-production and cash-constrained.
4. Inflation at 7.5%:
   • Persistent 7.5% inflation increases input costs (labor, equipment, utilities) but also supports higher gold prices as a hedge.
   • Impact: Inflation raises operating costs, but 1911 Gold’s high-grade resources (4.4 g/t indicated) and existing infrastructure mitigate margin compression. Inflation-driven gold demand enhances project economics.

Assumptions for Analysis

• Successful Exploration: Exploration at True North and satellite deposits (e.g., Ogama-Rockland) confirms additional high-grade resources, doubling the indicated resource to ~1 million oz by 2027 (from 499,000 oz).
• Full Production On Time: The True North mine resumes full production by 2028, leveraging existing mill infrastructure (permitted and operational). Annual production is estimated at 100,000 oz, based on historical output and resource potential.
• Production Costs: All-in sustaining costs (AISC) of USD $1,800/oz in 2028, rising 7.5% annually due to inflation (to $2,573/oz by 2030).
• Capital Expenditures: USD $50M for mine development and mill upgrades, funded by the $8.51M raised in 2025 and additional debt/equity by 2027.
• Discount Rate: 10% for net present value (NPV) calculations, reflecting junior mining risk in a high-inflation environment.

Financial Projections (2025–2030, USD)

1. Resource Growth:
   • 2025–2027: Exploration adds 500,000 oz to indicated resources (total 1M oz by 2027). Inferred resources grow to 1M oz.
   • Cost: $10M/year for drilling and studies (total $30M).
2. Revenue Model (2028–2030):
   • Production: 100,000 oz/year starting 2028.
   • Gold Price: $5,000/oz (constant for simplicity, though inflation may push it higher).
   • Annual Revenue: 100,000 oz × $5,000/oz = $500M/year.
   • AISC:
     • 2028: $1,800/oz → $180M/year
     • 2029: $1,935/oz → $193.5M/year
     • 2030: $2,080/oz → $208M/year
   • Operating Cash Flow:
     • 2028: $500M - $180M = $320M
     • 2029: $500M - $193.5M = $306.5M
     • 2030: $500M - $208M = $292M
3. Net Present Value (NPV):
   • Cash Flows (2025–2030):
     • 2025: -$10M (exploration)
     • 2026: -$10M
     • 2027: -$10M
     • 2028: $320M - $50M (capex) = $270M
     • 2029: $306.5M
     • 2030: $292M
   • NPV (10% discount rate):NPV=−10(1.1)1+−10(1.1)2+−10(1.1)3+270(1.1)4+306.5(1.1)5+292(1.1)6NPV = \frac{-10}{(1.1)^1} + \frac{-10}{(1.1)^2} + \frac{-10}{(1.1)^3} + \frac{270}{(1.1)^4} + \frac{306.5}{(1.1)^5} + \frac{292}{(1.1)^6}NPV = \frac{-10}{(1.1)^1} + \frac{-10}{(1.1)^2} + \frac{-10}{(1.1)^3} + \frac{270}{(1.1)^4} + \frac{306.5}{(1.1)^5} + \frac{292}{(1.1)^6}NPV=−9.09−8.26−7.51+184.64+190.54+165.04=USD $515.36MNPV = -9.09 - 8.26 - 7.51 + 184.64 + 190.54 + 165.04 = \text{USD } \$515.36MNPV = -9.09 - 8.26 - 7.51 + 184.64 + 190.54 + 165.04 = \text{USD } \$515.36M
4. Valuation:
   • Current Market Cap: $33.97M.
   • Potential Market Cap (2030): Assuming a P/NAV multiple of 1.0 (typical for producing juniors), the stock could be valued at ~$515M.
   • Shares Outstanding: ~191.3M (based on CAD $45.91M market cap at CAD $0.24/share).
   • Projected Share Price (2030): $515M ÷ 191.3M = USD $2.69 (CAD $3.64, assuming constant exchange rate).
   • CAGR (2025–2030): From $0.178 to $2.69, a CAGR of ~72.2%.

Technical Analysis

• Chart Trends: AUMB exhibits a bullish trend, with a Strong Buy signal from moving averages. Recent breakout above resistance at CAD $0.22 suggests momentum.
• Volatility: Beta of 2.11 and 16% weekly volatility indicate high risk, amplified by gold price sensitivity and exploration outcomes.
• Support/Resistance: Support at CAD $0.20 (USD $0.148), resistance at CAD $0.30 (USD $0.222).

Risks

1. Exploration Risk: Despite the assumption of success, drilling may yield lower-grade or uneconomic resources, delaying or derailing production.
2. Funding Risk: Additional capital (beyond $8.51M raised) is needed for development. Dilution or debt could pressure share price.
3. Operational Risk: Delays in permitting, mill upgrades, or production ramp-up could increase costs or reduce output.
4. Market Risk: A reversal in gold prices (e.g., if inflation subsides) could undermine economics. High beta amplifies market swings.
5. Inflation Pressure: 7.5% inflation raises AISC faster than projected, squeezing margins if gold prices stagnate.

Bull Case

• Upside Scenario: Gold reaches $6,000/oz by 2030 (7.5% annual increase), and exploration discovers 1.5M oz indicated resources. Production scales to 150,000 oz/year, boosting NPV to ~$800M and share price to ~USD $4.18 (CAGR 88%).
• Catalysts: Positive drill results, production milestones, or strategic partnerships (e.g., lithium deal with Grid Metals) could drive re-rating.

Bear Case

• Downside Scenario: Exploration underperforms (resources grow only 20%), and production is delayed to 2029 with 50,000 oz/year. Gold falls to $4,000/oz, reducing NPV to ~$100M and share price to ~USD $0.52 (CAGR 24%).
• Triggers: Negative drill results, funding shortfalls, or operational setbacks.

Recommendation

• Investment Thesis: 1911 Gold is a high-risk, high-reward junior miner well-positioned to capitalize on a gold bull market ($5,000/oz). Successful exploration and on-time production could drive significant upside, with a projected share price of USD $2.69 by 2030 (15x current price). Existing infrastructure and high-grade resources reduce development risk compared to greenfield projects.
• Rating: Speculative Buy for risk-tolerant investors. Allocate a small portfolio portion (e.g., 2–5%) due to volatility and execution risks.

Disclaimer

Do your own due diligence before speculating in a stock, especially junior miners.