H World Group (NasdaqGS:HTHT): Reassessing Valuation After Q3 Beat, 10,000th Hotel Milestone and Laos Expansion Plans

Q3 beat, 10,000th hotel, and new markets

H World Group (HTHT) just delivered better than expected Q3 2025 results, marked its 10,000th hotel opening, and outlined expansion into Laos, a combination that is quietly reshaping how investors value the stock.

See our latest analysis for H World Group.

The latest Q3 beat slots into a strong run, with the share price at 47.88 dollars and a near 29 percent 90 day share price return pointing to building momentum, while the 50.76 percent one year total shareholder return confirms the longer term story is firmly intact.

If this kind of compounding growth catches your eye, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership to uncover other under the radar names following similar trajectories.

Yet with shares already up nearly 50 percent over the past year and trading only a touch below refreshed analyst targets, investors now face a tougher call: is H World still mispriced or is future growth already reflected in the tag?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 5.8% Undervalued

Compared with the last close at 47.88 dollars, the most followed narrative sees fair value closer to 50.83 dollars, implying modest upside if its assumptions land.

The ongoing expansion into lower tier cities and network growth despite short term RevPAR pressure and a challenging macro backdrop positions H World Group to capitalize on rising domestic travel fueled by urbanization and an expanding middle class, supporting robust top line revenue growth as the economic environment normalizes.

Rapid digitalization and enhancements in H Rewards membership program including deeper direct booking integration, price guarantees, and cross industry partnerships are expected to further reduce customer acquisition costs and drive higher net margins as direct bookings increase.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady mid single digit revenue growth, rising margins, and an unchanged earnings multiple can still argue for upside from here? The full narrative spells out the exact earnings path, margin lift, and valuation bridge that turn today’s price into that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $50.83 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer long term RevPAR and the risk of overexpansion in weaker lower tier cities could quickly erode the currently improving margin story.

Find out about the key risks to this H World Group narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

While the narrative suggests H World is 5.8 percent undervalued, its 26.3 times price to earnings sits above the US hospitality average of 23.6 times and above our 25.2 times fair ratio, which may indicate a richer tag. Is the premium due to earnings quality, or is it driven by optimism?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out H World Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 904 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own H World Group Narrative

And if you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your H World Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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