| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 4/6 |
| Future Growth | 4/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
MAR Stock Overview
Marriott International, Inc. operates, franchises, and licenses hotel, residential, and timeshare properties worldwide.
Marriott International Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$161.38 |
| 52 Week High | US$195.90 |
| 52 Week Low | US$129.02 |
| Beta | 1.63 |
| 1 Month Change | 5.75% |
| 3 Month Change | 3.96% |
| 1 Year Change | 23.05% |
| 3 Year Change | 29.00% |
| 5 Year Change | 60.32% |
| Change since IPO | 806.35% |
Recent News & Updates
Marriott Q2 2022 Earnings Preview
Marriott (NASDAQ:MAR) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Tuesday, August 2nd, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $1.57 (+98.7% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $4.96B (+57.5% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, MAR has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 25% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 14 upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 5 upward revisions and 2 downward.
Marriott International: Stock Price Is Not Reflecting A Recession
Marriott is reporting strong growth rates in the last few quarters, and earnings per share already have reached pre-crisis levels. The company also has improved its balance sheet and also reinstated the quarterly dividend. However, COVID-19 is still an issue, and an upcoming potential recession will likely also have a negative effect on the business. And considering these risks, the stock is still overvalued. One of the companies hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis was Marriott International, Inc. (MAR). And in my last article about the company that was published in December 2021, I still considered COVID-19 as one of the major risks for the business. Now that worldwide traveling is returning almost to "normal" levels again, we see another risk rising for Marriott International - a potential global recession. And considering these risks surrounding the business, I still don't see it as a solid investment, as I will explain in the following article. But, let's start with some positive aspects. Improving Results One positive aspect about Marriott international we can mention are the improving quarterly results. In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, Marriott generated a total revenue of $4,199 million and compared to $2,316 million in Q1/21 this is an increase of 81.3% YoY. Operating income could multiply from $84 million in the same quarter last year to $558 million in Q1/22, and diluted earnings per share improved from a loss of $0.03 in Q1/21 to $1.14 this quarter. Of course, we always must keep in mind that we are comparing the current quarter with one of the worst quarters in a long time, and therefore high growth rates are not surprising. Marriott International FactBook And we also see improvements over the last few quarters. While revenue hasn't reached pre-crisis levels yet, Marriott is more profitable than before the pandemic. While operating margin has almost reached the same levels as in 2017 again, gross margin is at the highest level it has been in a long time. And as a result, operating income as well as earnings per share are higher than they were in the quarters before the COVID-19 crisis. Data by YCharts And aside from revenue and earnings per share, different metrics (like the revenue per available room) also improved, as Marriott stated in its May press release: In the 2022 first quarter, worldwide RevPAR increased 96.5 percent (a 95.5 percent increase using actual dollars) compared to the 2021 first quarter. RevPAR in the U.S. & Canada increased 99.1 percent (a 99.1 percent increase using actual dollars), and RevPAR in international markets increased 88.5 percent (an 84.8 percent increase using actual dollars). Balance Sheet Improved and Dividend Resumed Aside from improved results, Marriott International could also improve its balance sheet. On March 31, 2022, the company had $8,738 million in long-term debt as well as $731 million in short-term debt on its balance sheet (resulting in $9,468 million in total debt). And compared to $10,057 million in debt one year earlier this is a reduction by 6%. During the same timeframe, total equity also improved from only $234 million one year ago to $1,772 million on March 31, 2022. And cash and cash equivalents also increased from $628 million on March 31, 2021, to $1,042 million on March 31, 2022. While the balance sheet clearly improved, Marriott International still has a debt-equity ratio of 5.34 and it would still take almost 4.5 times the operating income of the last four quarters to repay the outstanding debt. And while we should not be concerned about those numbers, the balance sheet is still not great. Aside from improving the balance sheet, Marriott International also resumes paying a cash dividend and the company will pay a quarterly dividend of $0.30. And although this is still lower than the dividend before the COVID-19 crisis (which was $0.48) it is a positive sign. However, we can identify at least three reasons why Marriott International is probably not a great investment right now - starting with COVID-19, which is still an issue. Reason I: COVID-19 In my last article about Marriott International, I mostly focused on the risk presented by COVID-19. Now, about eight months later COVID-19 still seems like an issue that is not completely resolved. We certainly don't know what the next fall and winter will bring and as mentioned in my last article, we don't know what long-term effects the pandemic will have on business travelling. It might be a possibility that conferences and meetings will be less in-person and business traveling will decline a bit. And when talking about this issue we should also keep in mind that society can't really afford to travel and fly the same way it has before when taking climate change seriously. Reason II: Recession And while these might rather be mid-to-long-term trends, there is another risk for the next few quarters: the recession that seems already visible on the horizon. And while we can argue that Marriott is rather focused on high-income individuals that might not be affected so much by the recession (as it is especially the low- and mid-income population that is affected) the past recessions are painting a different picture. Data by YCharts
Shareholder Returns
| MAR | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| 1Y | 23.1% | -11.4% | -8.4% |
Return vs Industry: MAR exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned -11.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MAR exceeded the US Market which returned -8.4% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MAR volatility | |
|---|---|
| MAR Average Weekly Movement | 5.2% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 8.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.6% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 17.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: MAR is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.
Volatility Over Time: MAR's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1927 | 120,000 | Tony Capuano | https://www.marriott.com |
Marriott International, Inc. operates, franchises, and licenses hotel, residential, and timeshare properties worldwide. The company operates through U.S. and Canada, and International segments. It operates its properties under the JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, Ritz-Carlton Reserve, W Hotels, The Luxury Collection, St. Regis, EDITION, Bulgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Delta Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Marriott Vacation Club, Westin, Renaissance, Le Méridien, Autograph Collection, Gaylord Hotels, Tribute Portfolio, Design Hotels, Courtyard, Residence Inn, Fairfield by Marriott, SpringHill Suites, Four Points, TownePlace Suites, Aloft, AC Hotels by Marriott, Protea Hotels, Element, and Moxy brand names.
Marriott International Fundamentals Summary
| MAR fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$52.38b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$1.74b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$4.54b |
30.0x
P/E Ratio11.5x
P/S RatioIs MAR overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MAR income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$4.54b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$937.00m |
| Gross Profit | US$3.60b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.86b |
| Earnings | US$1.74b |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 5.37 |
| Gross Margin | 79.36% |
| Net Profit Margin | 38.40% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 487.9% |
How did MAR perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.7%
Current Dividend Yield6%
Payout RatioValuation
Is MAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MAR?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is MAR's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$52.38b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 13.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 20.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does MAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| MAR PE Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 50.7x | ||
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings | 38.4x | 14.4% | US$37.2b |
BKNG Booking Holdings | 53.7x | 22.7% | US$82.9b |
ABNB Airbnb | 58.8x | 22.1% | US$73.4b |
EXPE Expedia Group | 51.8x | 33.4% | US$17.9b |
MAR Marriott International | 30x | 14.6% | US$52.4b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the peer average (50.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does MAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MAR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (18.7x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is MAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 30x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 43.8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.8x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of MAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: MAR ($161.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($252.54)
Significantly Below Fair Value: MAR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
Discover undervalued companies
Future Growth
How is Marriott International forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?
Future Growth Score
4/6Future Growth Score 4/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
14.6%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: MAR's forecast earnings growth (14.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: MAR's earnings (14.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: MAR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: MAR's revenue (10.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).
High Growth Revenue: MAR's revenue (10.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: MAR's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (296.8%).
Discover growth companies
Past Performance
How has Marriott International performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
4/6Past Performance Score 4/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
-17.9%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: MAR has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: MAR's current net profit margins (38.4%) are higher than last year (15%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MAR's earnings have declined by 17.9% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: MAR's earnings growth over the past year (402.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (-17.9% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: MAR earnings growth over the past year (402.3%) exceeded the Hospitality industry 49.5%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: Whilst MAR's Return on Equity (98.36%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.
Discover strong past performing companies
Financial Health
How is Marriott International's financial position?
Financial Health Score
2/6Financial Health Score 2/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: MAR's short term assets ($3.1B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($6.9B).
Long Term Liabilities: MAR's short term assets ($3.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($16.0B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: MAR's net debt to equity ratio (457.1%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: MAR's debt to equity ratio has increased from 169.8% to 487.9% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: MAR's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (24.3%).
Interest Coverage: MAR's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7.2x coverage).
Balance Sheet
Discover healthy companies
Dividend
What is Marriott International current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage
0.74%
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: MAR's dividend (0.74%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.47%).
High Dividend: MAR's dividend (0.74%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.97%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: MAR is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.
Growing Dividend: MAR is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: MAR is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: MAR is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.
Discover strong dividend paying companies
Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
1.8yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Tony Capuano (56 yo)
1.5yrs
Tenure
US$18,391,882
Compensation
Mr. Anthony G. Capuano, Jr., also known as Tony, serves as Chief Executive Officer and Director at Marriott International, Inc. since February 21, 2021. Mr. Capuano had been Acting Co-Principal Executive O...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Tony's total compensation ($USD18.39M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.86M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Tony's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: MAR's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.
Board Members
Experienced Board: MAR's board of directors are considered experienced (7.7 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: MAR insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Marriott International, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Marriott International, Inc.
- Ticker: MAR
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 1927
- Industry: Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines
- Sector: Consumer Services
- Implied Market Cap: US$52.376b
- Shares outstanding: 324.55m
- Website: https://www.marriott.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Marriott International, Inc.
- 10400 Fernwood Road
- Bethesda
- Maryland
- 20817
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/08/19 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/08/19 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.