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MAR

Marriott International NasdaqGS:MAR Stock Report

Last Price

US$161.38

Market Cap

US$52.4b

7D

-1.6%

1Y

23.1%

Updated

19 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
MAR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth4/6
Past Performance4/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends0/6

MAR Stock Overview

Marriott International, Inc. operates, franchises, and licenses hotel, residential, and timeshare properties worldwide.

Marriott International Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Marriott International
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$161.38
52 Week HighUS$195.90
52 Week LowUS$129.02
Beta1.63
1 Month Change5.75%
3 Month Change3.96%
1 Year Change23.05%
3 Year Change29.00%
5 Year Change60.32%
Change since IPO806.35%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 01

Marriott Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Marriott (NASDAQ:MAR) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Tuesday, August 2nd, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $1.57 (+98.7% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $4.96B (+57.5% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, MAR has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 25% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 14 upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 5 upward revisions and 2 downward.

Jul 19

Marriott International: Stock Price Is Not Reflecting A Recession

Marriott is reporting strong growth rates in the last few quarters, and earnings per share already have reached pre-crisis levels. The company also has improved its balance sheet and also reinstated the quarterly dividend. However, COVID-19 is still an issue, and an upcoming potential recession will likely also have a negative effect on the business. And considering these risks, the stock is still overvalued. One of the companies hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis was Marriott International, Inc. (MAR). And in my last article about the company that was published in December 2021, I still considered COVID-19 as one of the major risks for the business. Now that worldwide traveling is returning almost to "normal" levels again, we see another risk rising for Marriott International - a potential global recession. And considering these risks surrounding the business, I still don't see it as a solid investment, as I will explain in the following article. But, let's start with some positive aspects. Improving Results One positive aspect about Marriott international we can mention are the improving quarterly results. In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, Marriott generated a total revenue of $4,199 million and compared to $2,316 million in Q1/21 this is an increase of 81.3% YoY. Operating income could multiply from $84 million in the same quarter last year to $558 million in Q1/22, and diluted earnings per share improved from a loss of $0.03 in Q1/21 to $1.14 this quarter. Of course, we always must keep in mind that we are comparing the current quarter with one of the worst quarters in a long time, and therefore high growth rates are not surprising. Marriott International FactBook And we also see improvements over the last few quarters. While revenue hasn't reached pre-crisis levels yet, Marriott is more profitable than before the pandemic. While operating margin has almost reached the same levels as in 2017 again, gross margin is at the highest level it has been in a long time. And as a result, operating income as well as earnings per share are higher than they were in the quarters before the COVID-19 crisis. Data by YCharts And aside from revenue and earnings per share, different metrics (like the revenue per available room) also improved, as Marriott stated in its May press release: In the 2022 first quarter, worldwide RevPAR increased 96.5 percent (a 95.5 percent increase using actual dollars) compared to the 2021 first quarter. RevPAR in the U.S. & Canada increased 99.1 percent (a 99.1 percent increase using actual dollars), and RevPAR in international markets increased 88.5 percent (an 84.8 percent increase using actual dollars). Balance Sheet Improved and Dividend Resumed Aside from improved results, Marriott International could also improve its balance sheet. On March 31, 2022, the company had $8,738 million in long-term debt as well as $731 million in short-term debt on its balance sheet (resulting in $9,468 million in total debt). And compared to $10,057 million in debt one year earlier this is a reduction by 6%. During the same timeframe, total equity also improved from only $234 million one year ago to $1,772 million on March 31, 2022. And cash and cash equivalents also increased from $628 million on March 31, 2021, to $1,042 million on March 31, 2022. While the balance sheet clearly improved, Marriott International still has a debt-equity ratio of 5.34 and it would still take almost 4.5 times the operating income of the last four quarters to repay the outstanding debt. And while we should not be concerned about those numbers, the balance sheet is still not great. Aside from improving the balance sheet, Marriott International also resumes paying a cash dividend and the company will pay a quarterly dividend of $0.30. And although this is still lower than the dividend before the COVID-19 crisis (which was $0.48) it is a positive sign. However, we can identify at least three reasons why Marriott International is probably not a great investment right now - starting with COVID-19, which is still an issue. Reason I: COVID-19 In my last article about Marriott International, I mostly focused on the risk presented by COVID-19. Now, about eight months later COVID-19 still seems like an issue that is not completely resolved. We certainly don't know what the next fall and winter will bring and as mentioned in my last article, we don't know what long-term effects the pandemic will have on business travelling. It might be a possibility that conferences and meetings will be less in-person and business traveling will decline a bit. And when talking about this issue we should also keep in mind that society can't really afford to travel and fly the same way it has before when taking climate change seriously. Reason II: Recession And while these might rather be mid-to-long-term trends, there is another risk for the next few quarters: the recession that seems already visible on the horizon. And while we can argue that Marriott is rather focused on high-income individuals that might not be affected so much by the recession (as it is especially the low- and mid-income population that is affected) the past recessions are painting a different picture. Data by YCharts

Shareholder Returns

MARUS HospitalityUS Market
7D-1.6%1.6%1.4%
1Y23.1%-11.4%-8.4%

Return vs Industry: MAR exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned -11.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MAR exceeded the US Market which returned -8.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MAR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MAR volatility
MAR Average Weekly Movement5.2%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement8.4%
Market Average Movement7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: MAR is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MAR's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1927120,000Tony Capuanohttps://www.marriott.com

Marriott International, Inc. operates, franchises, and licenses hotel, residential, and timeshare properties worldwide. The company operates through U.S. and Canada, and International segments. It operates its properties under the JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, Ritz-Carlton Reserve, W Hotels, The Luxury Collection, St. Regis, EDITION, Bulgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Delta Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Marriott Vacation Club, Westin, Renaissance, Le Méridien, Autograph Collection, Gaylord Hotels, Tribute Portfolio, Design Hotels, Courtyard, Residence Inn, Fairfield by Marriott, SpringHill Suites, Four Points, TownePlace Suites, Aloft, AC Hotels by Marriott, Protea Hotels, Element, and Moxy brand names.

Marriott International Fundamentals Summary

How do Marriott International's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MAR fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$52.38b
Earnings (TTM)US$1.74b
Revenue (TTM)US$4.54b

30.0x

P/E Ratio

11.5x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MAR income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$4.54b
Cost of RevenueUS$937.00m
Gross ProfitUS$3.60b
Other ExpensesUS$1.86b
EarningsUS$1.74b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)5.37
Gross Margin79.36%
Net Profit Margin38.40%
Debt/Equity Ratio487.9%

How did MAR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.7%

Current Dividend Yield

6%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MAR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MAR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA20.9x
PEG Ratio2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MAR PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for MAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average50.7x
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings
38.4x14.4%US$37.2b
BKNG Booking Holdings
53.7x22.7%US$82.9b
ABNB Airbnb
58.8x22.1%US$73.4b
EXPE Expedia Group
51.8x33.4%US$17.9b
MAR Marriott International
30x14.6%US$52.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the peer average (50.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MAR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (18.7x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30x
Fair PE Ratio43.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.8x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MAR ($161.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($252.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MAR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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Future Growth

How is Marriott International forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


14.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MAR's forecast earnings growth (14.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: MAR's earnings (14.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MAR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MAR's revenue (10.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MAR's revenue (10.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MAR's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (296.8%).


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Past Performance

How has Marriott International performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-17.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MAR has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MAR's current net profit margins (38.4%) are higher than last year (15%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MAR's earnings have declined by 17.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MAR's earnings growth over the past year (402.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (-17.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MAR earnings growth over the past year (402.3%) exceeded the Hospitality industry 49.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst MAR's Return on Equity (98.36%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


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Financial Health

How is Marriott International's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MAR's short term assets ($3.1B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($6.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: MAR's short term assets ($3.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($16.0B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MAR's net debt to equity ratio (457.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: MAR's debt to equity ratio has increased from 169.8% to 487.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MAR's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (24.3%).

Interest Coverage: MAR's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7.2x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Marriott International current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


0.74%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MAR's dividend (0.74%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.47%).

High Dividend: MAR's dividend (0.74%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.97%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MAR is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: MAR is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: MAR is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: MAR is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Tony Capuano (56 yo)

1.5yrs

Tenure

US$18,391,882

Compensation

Mr. Anthony G. Capuano, Jr., also known as Tony, serves as Chief Executive Officer and Director at Marriott International, Inc. since February 21, 2021. Mr. Capuano had been Acting Co-Principal Executive O...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tony's total compensation ($USD18.39M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.86M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tony's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MAR's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: MAR's board of directors are considered experienced (7.7 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: MAR insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Marriott International, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Marriott International, Inc.
  • Ticker: MAR
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1927
  • Industry: Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Implied Market Cap: US$52.376b
  • Shares outstanding: 324.55m
  • Website: https://www.marriott.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Marriott International, Inc.
  • 10400 Fernwood Road
  • Bethesda
  • Maryland
  • 20817
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/19 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/19 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.