Update shared on 11 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 208%Since my original post, RKLB has continued to expand its space systems business, including through acquisitions and raising more capital. Its Neutron rocket is still largely on schedule; and as expected, no major new players have arrived to take RKLBs #2 spot in space launch.
This all means Rocket Lab's revenue can be expected to increase faster (though in a very lumpy manner, not the smooth curves that SimplyWallSt's valuator produces), reaching ~$44b by 2035, equivalent to around 5% market share of the ~$800B space 'backbone' economy.
The new acquisitions and prevailingly limited competition mean future net profit margins can be expected to be higher before, now estimated to be 20% for net earnings of ~$9B. Earlier this year, SpaceX's government and political connections could have been a major risk to RKLB. Developments since mean that this risk is minor and likely now goes in the other direction with Rocket Lab widely seen as the more neutral and reliable partner, instead of SpaceX, particularly for non-US spaceflight customers. If RKLB remains second to SpaceX over the next 10 years, Rocket Lab will still do tremendously well, however catching up to SpaceX still remains a possibility.
These estimates produce a current fair value of ~$98 per share. The main determinant of daily stock prices over the next 10 years will be the PE ratio the market ascribes to Rocket Labs. This will fluctuate massively over time as an amplified measure of current investor confidence in the spaceflight business, the space economy, the global economy and global markets in general. Throughout Rocket Lab will continue to innovate and grow. Periods of lower PEs will offer good buying opportunities. Only extremely high PEs represent true 'overvalued' status, given the long term prospects of this company.
Disclaimer
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