Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX) Shares Could Be 36% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

March 14, 2025

Key Insights

The projected fair value for Equifax is US$371 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Equifax's US$237 share price signals that it might be 36% undervalued
Our fair value estimate is 27% higher than Equifax's analyst price target of US$292

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Equifax

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025202620272028202920302031203220332034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$991.0mUS$1.32bUS$1.59bUS$1.79bUS$1.97bUS$2.12bUS$2.25bUS$2.37bUS$2.47bUS$2.57bGrowth Rate Estimate SourceAnalyst x5Analyst x7Analyst x3Est @ 12.80%Est @ 9.79%Est @ 7.68%Est @ 6.20%Est @ 5.16%Est @ 4.44%Est @ 3.93% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9% US$927US$1.2kUS$1.3kUS$1.4kUS$1.4kUS$1.4kUS$1.4kUS$1.4kUS$1.4kUS$1.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$13b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.6b× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (6.9%– 2.8%) = US$64b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$64b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)¹⁰= US$33b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$46b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$237, the company appears quite good value at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf — NYSE:EFX Discounted Cash Flow March 14th 2025

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Equifax as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.952. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Equifax

Strength

Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

Balance sheet summary for EFX.

Weakness

Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Professional Services industry.

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.

Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

What else are analysts forecasting for EFX?

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Equifax, we've put together three important factors you should further examine:

Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Equifax that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does EFX's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.