XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a moderately negative result overall - revenue fell 2.9% short of analyst estimates at CN¥31b, and statutory losses were in line with analyst expectations, at CN¥11.92 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for XPeng

After the latest results, the 32 analysts covering XPeng are now predicting revenues of CN¥48.4b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 58% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 23% to CN¥8.46. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥56.8b and losses of CN¥8.04 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The consensus price target fell 9.9% to US$14.85, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values XPeng at US$28.32 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.30. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that XPeng is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting XPeng's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 58% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 45% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect XPeng to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at XPeng. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for XPeng going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for XPeng that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.