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Top Pick for Multi-bagger

SU
SuEricInvested
Community Contributor

Published

January 09 2025

Updated

January 15 2025

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Strong Q1 2024 Performance

In Q1 2024, $MNSO revenue surged 26% year-on-year to $515.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 200 basis points to 25.9%. This growth was fueled by a robust strategy of opening new stores globally.

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Aggressive Expansion Plans

$MNSO plans to open 900 to 1,100 stores annually from 2024 to 2028, aiming for a revenue CAGR of over 20%. As operational efficiency improves, sustained EBITDA margin growth is expected, enhancing the potential for higher dividends.

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Market Growth Potential

$MNSO market growth outlook is projected to be around 9% for the next decade, indicating robust potential for expansion.

Efficient Operations

With capital expenditure representing only 15-20% of its cash from operations, $MNSO operates efficiently, requiring minimal funds for smooth operations.

Rising Margins

$MNSO margins are rising, with EBITDA improving from 7% to 23%. We expect this to stabilize around +20%, further strengthening profitability.

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Financial Strength

Debt-free and holding a cash reserve of ~$878 million USD, $MNSO is well-positioned for strategic growth.

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Strong Insider Confidence

Additionally, 69% insider $MNSO ownership underscores strong confidence in the company's future.

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Top Pick for Multi-Bagger

Returns $MNSO is one of my top picks for a multi-bagger in the next decade. As of today's price, it isn't the best entry point. I would wait for ~$20 to keep adding more shares.

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Disclaimer

The user SuEric has a position in NYSE:MNSO. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
US$44.1
46.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
SuEric's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture010b20b30b40b2019202120232025202720292030Revenue CN¥43.7bEarnings CN¥7.9b
% p.a.
Decrease
Increase
Current revenue growth rate
17.68%
General Merchandise and Department Stores revenue growth rate
0.37%