Harley-Davidson
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The last earnings update was 47 days ago. More info.
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HOG Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
1 Year Returns
HOG Shareholder Return
| 7 Day | 30 Day | 90 Day | 1 Year | 3 Year | 5 Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley-Davidson (HOG) | 5% | 11.4% | 10% | -2.9% | -11% | -43.3% |
| US Auto | -0.1% | 3% | -2.9% | -6.2% | 9.2% | -8.8% |
| US Market | 0.4% | 2.6% | 11% | 6.8% | 38.1% | 45.7% |
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
- HOG outperformed the Auto industry which returned -6.2% over the past year.
- HOG underperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 6.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
Related Companies
Value
Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is
available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale
at half price, they could be considered
undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current
share
price of
Harley-Davidson
to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Harley-Davidson.
| Data Point | Source | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Valuation Model | 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity | |
| Levered Free Cash Flow | Average of 18 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See below |
| Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) | See below | 9.1% |
| Perpetual Growth Rate | 10-Year US Government Bond Rate | 2.7% |
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
| Data Point | Calculation/ Source | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate | 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate | 2.7% |
| Equity Risk Premium | S&P Global | 6% |
| Auto Unlevered Beta | Simply Wall St/ S&P Global | 0.57 |
| Re-levered Beta | = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.574 (1 + (1- 21%) (118.65%)) |
1.075 |
| Levered Beta | Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm) |
1.07 |
| Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity |
= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.075 * 5.96%) |
9.14% |
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:HOG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Harley-Davidson is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
| Levered FCF (USD, Millions) | Source |
Present Value Discounted (@ 9.14%) |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 720.64 | Analyst x6 | 660.31 |
| 2020 | 777.15 | Analyst x6 | 652.48 |
| 2021 | 807.50 | Analyst x2 | 621.21 |
| 2022 | 796.50 | Analyst x2 | 561.45 |
| 2023 | 739.00 | Analyst x1 | 477.31 |
| 2024 | 736.73 | Est @ -0.31% | 436.01 |
| 2025 | 741.18 | Est @ 0.6% | 401.92 |
| 2026 | 750.38 | Est @ 1.24% | 372.85 |
| 2027 | 763.05 | Est @ 1.69% | 347.40 |
| 2028 | 778.31 | Est @ 2% | 324.69 |
| Present value of next 10 years cash flows | $4,855.63 | ||
| Calculation | Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Terminal Value |
= FCF2028
× (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $778.31 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (9.14% – 2.73%) |
$12,481.15 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value |
= Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $12,481.15 ÷ (1 + 9.14%)10 |
$5,206.78 |
| Calculation | Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Equity Value |
= Present value of next 10 years cash flows +
Terminal Value
= $4,855.63 + $5,206.78 |
$10,062.41 |
| Equity Value per Share (USD) |
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $10,062.41 / 157.13 |
$64.04 |
| Calculation | Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Value per share (USD) | From above. | $64.04 |
| Current discount | Discount to share price of
$40.76
= -1 x ($40.76 - $64.04) / $64.04 |
36.4% |
Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .
Current Discount
Current Discount Checks
- Harley-Davidson's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
- Harley-Davidson's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Harley-Davidson's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are
Harley-Davidson's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
| Data Point | Source | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share * | Company Filings (2018-12-31) in USD | $3.21 |
| NYSE:HOG Share Price ** | NYSE (2019-04-16) in USD | $40.76 |
| United States of America Auto Industry PE Ratio | Median Figure of 6 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies | 11.45x |
| United States of America Market PE Ratio | Median Figure of 3,072 Publicly-Listed Companies | 18.08x |
* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.
** Primary Listing of Harley-Davidson.
| Calculation | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|
| PE Ratio | = NYSE:HOG Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD) = 40.76 ÷ 3.21 |
12.71x |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
- Harley-Davidson is overvalued based on earnings compared to the US Auto industry average.
- Harley-Davidson is good value based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does
Harley-Davidson's expected growth come at a high price?
| Data Point | Source | Value |
|---|---|---|
| PE Ratio | See PE Ratio Section | 12.71x |
| Net Income Annual Growth Rate | See Future Growth Section. Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 18 Analysts |
4.1%per year |
| United States of America Auto Industry PEG Ratio | Median Figure of 6 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies | 1.01x |
| United States of America Market PEG Ratio | Median Figure of 2,107 Publicly-Listed Companies | 1.56x |
*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .
| Calculation | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|
| PEG Ratio | = PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate = 12.71x ÷ 4.1% |
3.14x |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
- Harley-Davidson is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on
Harley-Davidson's
assets?
| Data Point | Source | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Book Value per Share | Company Filings (2018-12-31) in USD | $11.24 |
| NYSE:HOG Share Price * | NYSE (2019-04-16) in USD | $40.76 |
| United States of America Auto Industry PB Ratio | Median Figure of 11 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies | 4.9x |
| United States of America Market PB Ratio | Median Figure of 5,176 Publicly-Listed Companies | 1.91x |
| Calculation | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|
| PB Ratio | = NYSE:HOG Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD) = 40.76 ÷ 11.24 |
3.62x |
* Primary Listing of Harley-Davidson.
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
- Harley-Davidson is good value based on assets compared to the US Auto industry average.
Value checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's value by looking at:- Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
- Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Auto industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
- Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
- Is the PB ratio less than the Auto industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check) Harley-Davidson has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.
Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.
Future Performance
The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past
performance, by looking at estimated
growth
and how much profit it is expected to make.Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
- Harley-Davidson's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
- Harley-Davidson's earnings growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
- Harley-Davidson's revenues are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
| Data Point | Source | Value (per year) |
|---|---|---|
| NYSE:HOG Future Earnings Growth Rate | Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 18 Analysts | 4.1% |
| NYSE:HOG Future Revenue Growth Rate | Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 18 Analysts | -5% |
| United States of America Auto Industry Earnings Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 22.5% |
| United States of America Auto Industry Revenue Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 6.9% |
| United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 13.3% |
| United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate | Market Cap Weighted Average | 7% |
*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .
Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.
Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.
Analysts growth expectations
| Data Point | Source | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Past Financials | Company Filings (3 months ago) | See Below |
| Future Estimates | Average of up to 18 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
| Date (Data in USD Millions) | Revenue | Cash Flow | Net Income * | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | 4,991 | 614 | 1 | |
| 2022-12-31 | 4,845 | 1,064 | 580 | 2 |
| 2021-12-31 | 4,860 | 1,103 | 583 | 4 |
| 2020-12-31 | 4,802 | 1,003 | 583 | 17 |
| 2019-12-31 | 4,820 | 935 | 482 | 18 |
| Date (Data in USD Millions) | Revenue | Cash Flow | Net Income * |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-31 | 5,717 | 1,206 | 531 |
| 2018-09-30 | 5,800 | 1,179 | 539 |
| 2018-07-01 | 5,635 | 1,114 | 494 |
| 2018-04-01 | 5,687 | 1,037 | 510 |
| 2017-12-31 | 5,647 | 1,005 | 522 |
| 2017-09-24 | 5,529 | 1,196 | 561 |
| 2017-06-25 | 5,653 | 1,345 | 606 |
| 2017-03-26 | 5,748 | 1,293 | 628 |
| 2016-12-31 | 5,996 | 1,174 | 692 |
| 2016-09-25 | 6,066 | 1,007 | 687 |
| 2016-06-26 | 6,109 | 942 | 713 |
| 2016-03-27 | 6,072 | 967 | 733 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
| Data Point | Source | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Past Financials | Company Filings (3 months ago) | See Below |
| Future Estimates | Average of up to 18 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
All data from Harley-Davidson Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
| Date (Data in USD Millions) | EPS * | EPS High Estimate | EPS Low Estimate | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | ||||
| 2022-12-31 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.00 |
| 2021-12-31 | 4.03 | 4.40 | 3.65 | 2.00 |
| 2020-12-31 | 3.77 | 4.11 | 3.25 | 15.00 |
| 2019-12-31 | 3.02 | 3.19 | 2.90 | 13.00 |
| Date (Data in USD Millions) | EPS * |
|---|---|
| 2018-12-31 | 3.21 |
| 2018-09-30 | 3.23 |
| 2018-07-01 | 2.94 |
| 2018-04-01 | 3.00 |
| 2017-12-31 | 3.03 |
| 2017-09-24 | 3.22 |
| 2017-06-25 | 3.44 |
| 2017-03-26 | 3.53 |
| 2016-12-31 | 3.85 |
| 2016-09-25 | 3.76 |
| 2016-06-26 | 3.77 |
| 2016-03-27 | 3.74 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return
(profit) compared to the available
funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
- Harley-Davidson is expected to make outstanding use of shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity greater than 40%).
Future performance checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's future performance by looking at:- Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
- Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
- Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
- Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
- Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
- Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Harley-Davidson has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.
Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.
Past Performance
How has Harley-Davidson performed over the past 5 years?
The past performance of a company can be measured by how much
growth
it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets
it has available.
Past earnings growth
Past Earnings growth analysis
- Harley-Davidson's year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years and the most recent earnings are below average.
- Harley-Davidson's 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (1.9% vs -10.7%)
- Harley-Davidson's earnings growth has not exceeded the US Auto industry average in the past year (1.9% vs 13.9%).
Earnings and Revenue History
All data from Harley-Davidson Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
| Date (Data in USD Millions) | Revenue | Net Income * | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-31 | 5,716.88 | 531.45 | 1,090.44 | |
| 2018-09-30 | 5,799.94 | 539.27 | 1,077.68 | |
| 2018-07-01 | 5,635.47 | 493.62 | 1,067.31 | |
| 2018-04-01 | 5,687.41 | 510.15 | 1,042.83 | |
| 2017-12-31 | 5,647.22 | 521.76 | 1,016.76 | |
| 2017-09-24 | 5,528.90 | 560.62 | 993.45 | |
| 2017-06-25 | 5,652.51 | 606.48 | 997.16 | |
| 2017-03-26 | 5,748.42 | 628.04 | 1,030.66 | |
| 2016-12-31 | 5,996.46 | 692.16 | 1,062.00 | |
| 2016-09-25 | 6,066.49 | 687.18 | 1,081.98 | |
| 2016-06-26 | 6,109.11 | 713.46 | 1,071.46 | |
| 2016-03-27 | 6,072.43 | 732.84 | 1,053.55 | |
| 2015-12-31 | 5,995.40 | 752.21 | 1,040.27 | |
| 2015-09-27 | 6,014.92 | 784.49 | 1,027.28 | |
| 2015-06-28 | 5,999.10 | 794.21 | 1,027.71 | |
| 2015-03-29 | 6,175.41 | 848.55 | 1,012.26 | |
| 2014-12-31 | 6,228.51 | 844.61 | 1,011.92 | |
| 2014-09-28 | 6,218.99 | 845.55 | 998.08 | |
| 2014-06-29 | 6,261.10 | 858.20 | 990.07 | |
| 2014-03-30 | 6,054.71 | 775.78 | 988.68 | |
| 2013-12-31 | 5,899.87 | 733.99 | 981.57 | |
| 2013-09-29 | 5,880.10 | 729.22 | 986.48 | |
| 2013-06-30 | 5,786.68 | 700.51 | 970.38 | |
| 2013-03-31 | 5,722.03 | 676.02 | 968.66 | |
| 2012-12-31 | 5,580.51 | 623.93 | 966.06 | |
| 2012-09-30 | 5,593.58 | 607.93 | 964.98 | |
| 2012-07-01 | 5,740.54 | 657.52 | 1,030.26 | -66.60 |
*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.
Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is
done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available
funds,
assets
and
capital.
- Whilst Harley-Davidson has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%), this is metric is skewed due to its high level of debt.
- Harley-Davidson used its assets less efficiently than the US Auto industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
- Harley-Davidson's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
Past performance checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:- Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
- Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Auto industry? (1 check)
- Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
- Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
- Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
- Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
Harley-Davidson has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.
Health
How is Harley-Davidson's financial health and their level of debt?
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
(assets)
and owe
(liabilities).The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Harley-Davidson's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
- Harley-Davidson is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
- Harley-Davidson's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
Assets
Liabilities and shares
- Low level of unsold assets.
- Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.6x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
bad,
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
All data from Harley-Davidson Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.
| Date (Data in USD Millions) | Total Equity | Total Debt | Cash & Short Term Investments |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-31 | 1,773.95 | 7,599.28 | 554.56 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2,152.97 | 7,096.53 | 586.68 |
| 2018-07-01 | 2,161.53 | 7,141.71 | 627.78 |
| 2018-04-01 | 1,995.95 | 7,018.17 | 403.01 |
| 2017-12-31 | 1,844.28 | 6,988.01 | 338.19 |
| 2017-09-24 | 1,856.82 | 6,973.07 | 311.03 |
| 2017-06-25 | 2,046.17 | 7,172.35 | 586.89 |
| 2017-03-26 | 1,993.41 | 6,971.22 | 484.44 |
| 2016-12-31 | 1,920.16 | 6,807.57 | 431.06 |
| 2016-09-25 | 1,992.37 | 6,926.19 | 443.91 |
| 2016-06-26 | 2,021.01 | 7,061.32 | 450.73 |
| 2016-03-27 | 1,892.82 | 7,112.77 | 394.42 |
| 2015-12-31 | 1,839.65 | 6,872.20 | 445.64 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2,559.67 | 6,936.11 | 1,010.72 |
| 2015-06-28 | 3,023.63 | 6,226.70 | 880.81 |
| 2015-03-29 | 2,935.84 | 5,928.48 | 821.39 |
| 2014-12-31 | 2,909.29 | 5,504.63 | 631.22 |
| 2014-09-28 | 3,284.36 | 5,443.87 | 687.71 |
| 2014-06-29 | 3,366.26 | 5,358.93 | 693.52 |
| 2014-03-30 | 3,159.84 | 5,094.64 | 641.23 |
| 2013-12-31 | 3,009.49 | 5,259.17 | 817.92 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2,881.85 | 5,183.51 | 775.20 |
| 2013-06-30 | 2,821.24 | 5,536.37 | 1,068.73 |
| 2013-03-31 | 2,657.05 | 5,295.41 | 808.22 |
| 2012-12-31 | 2,557.62 | 5,103.02 | 863.35 |
| 2012-09-30 | 2,703.36 | 5,874.97 | 1,184.81 |
| 2012-07-01 | 2,666.39 | 5,330.25 | 861.76 |
- Harley-Davidson's level of debt (428.4%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
- The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (174.6% vs 428.4% today).
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15.9%, less than 20% of total debt).
- Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 27.5x coverage).
Financial health checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's financial health by checking for:- Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
- Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
- Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
- Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
- Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
- Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check) Harley-Davidson has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.
- Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
- Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.
Dividends
What is Harley-Davidson's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a
bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
If you bought
$2,000 of
Harley-Davidson
shares you are expected to receive
$74
in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
- Harley-Davidson's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.41%).
- Harley-Davidson's dividend is above the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.63%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not
wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate
to count toward your assessment of the stock.We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
| Data Point | Source | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Past Annualized Dividend Yield | S&P Global Market Data | See Below |
| Past Dividends per Share | Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments | See Below |
| Future Dividends per Share Estimates | Average of up to 18 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) | See Below |
| United States of America Auto Industry Average Dividend Yield | Market Cap Weighted Average of 6 Stocks | 3.9% |
| United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield | Market Cap Weighted Average of 2008 Stocks | 2.4% |
| United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield | 10th Percentile | 0.8% |
| United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield | 25th Percentile | 1.4% |
| United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield | 75th Percentile | 3.6% |
Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.
Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.
| Date (Data in $) | Dividend per Share (annual) | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | ||
| 2022-12-31 | 1.78 | 2.00 |
| 2021-12-31 | 1.78 | 5.00 |
| 2020-12-31 | 1.60 | 11.00 |
| 2019-12-31 | 1.55 | 11.00 |
| Date (Data in $) | Dividend per share (annual) | Avg. Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-27 | 1.500 | 4.031 |
| 2018-11-27 | 1.480 | 4.069 |
| 2018-09-05 | 1.480 | 3.548 |
| 2018-05-10 | 1.480 | 3.462 |
| 2018-02-05 | 1.480 | 3.405 |
| 2018-01-30 | 1.460 | 3.021 |
| 2017-08-29 | 1.460 | 2.970 |
| 2017-05-01 | 1.460 | 2.833 |
| 2017-02-02 | 1.460 | 2.486 |
| 2016-11-29 | 1.400 | 2.365 |
| 2016-08-30 | 1.400 | 2.588 |
| 2016-05-02 | 1.400 | 2.909 |
| 2016-02-03 | 1.400 | 3.077 |
| 2015-12-01 | 1.240 | 2.847 |
| 2015-09-01 | 1.240 | 2.392 |
| 2015-08-06 | 1.240 | 2.155 |
| 2015-07-21 | 1.240 | 2.132 |
| 2015-02-04 | 1.240 | 2.117 |
| 2014-12-02 | 1.100 | 1.689 |
| 2014-09-03 | 1.100 | 1.742 |
| 2014-04-28 | 1.100 | 1.625 |
| 2014-02-05 | 1.100 | 1.653 |
| 2013-12-03 | 0.840 | 1.252 |
| 2013-08-30 | 0.840 | 1.299 |
| 2013-04-29 | 0.840 | 1.499 |
| 2013-02-05 | 0.840 | 1.597 |
| 2013-01-29 | 0.620 | 1.174 |
| 2012-11-08 | 0.620 | 1.277 |
| 2012-10-23 | 0.620 | 1.327 |
| 2012-08-09 | 0.620 | 1.442 |
| 2012-08-01 | 0.620 | 1.482 |
| 2012-02-07 | 0.620 | 1.305 |
| 2011-12-06 | 0.500 | 1.239 |
| 2011-09-08 | 0.500 | 1.366 |
| 2011-05-02 | 0.500 | 1.310 |
| 2011-02-10 | 0.400 | 0.991 |
| 2010-12-07 | 0.400 | 1.096 |
| 2010-09-16 | 0.400 | 1.294 |
| 2010-04-26 | 0.400 | 1.470 |
| 2010-02-11 | 0.400 | 1.432 |
| 2009-12-10 | 0.400 | 1.613 |
| 2009-09-10 | 0.400 | 1.547 |
| 2009-04-27 | 0.400 | 2.091 |
| 2009-04-17 | 0.400 | 2.119 |
Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >
- Dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.
- Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of
Harley-Davidson's earnings are
paid
to the shareholders as a dividend.
- Dividends paid are well covered by earnings (2.2x coverage).
- Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (2.3x coverage).
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's dividend by checking for:- Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
- Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
- Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
- Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
- If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
- How sustainable is the dividend, can Harley-Davidson afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks) Harley-Davidson has a total score of 6/6, see the detailed checks below.
Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.
Management
CEO
| COMPENSATION | $11,116,680 |
| AGE | 53 |
| TENURE AS CEO | 3.9 years |
CEO Bio
Mr. Matthew S. Levatich, also known as Matt, has been the Chief Executive Officer since May 1, 2015 and is its President. He served as President of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since May 1, 2015. Mr. Levatich served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company, Inc. from May 1, 2009 to May 1, 2015. He served as President and Managing Director of MV Agusta, the Italian motorcycle maker that Harley-Davidson, Inc. acquired last August. While at MV, he spearheaded the restarting of MV's operations. In his 15 years at Harley-Davidson, he has held positions of increasing responsibility in the U.S. and Europe. He served as General Manager of Parts & Accessories and Custom Vehicle Operations and Vice President of Materials Management - Harley-Davidson Motor at Harley-Davidson, Inc., since November 2007 to July 2008 and October 2003 to October 2007 respectively. He joined Harley-Davidson in 1994 through its Leadership Development Program and quickly worked his way up to several senior roles within Harley-Davidson. Before that, he had managed all aspects of Harley-Davidson's global parts and accessories business after successfully leading its worldwide supply chain operations. Prior to Harley-Davidson, he held various supervising roles at Albany International in New York. He has been an Independent Director of Emerson Electric Co., since August 2012 and of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since February 4, 2015. He serves on the executive advisory board of the MMM Program at the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management and Robert R. McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Northwestern University and is a trustee on the Milwaukee Institute of Art and Design and a Regent at the Milwaukee School of Engineering (MSOE). Mr. Levatich holds an Undergraduate Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. He holds ME in Engineering Management and MBA in Marketing, Finance and Organizational Behavior from Northwestern University.
CEO Compensation
- Matt's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
- Matt's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the Harley-Davidson management team in years:
- The average tenure for the Harley-Davidson management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team
Matt Levatich
President
$11M
53
3.9 yrs
John Olin
Senior VP & CFO
$4M
57
9.6 yrs
Paul Jones
VP, Chief Legal Officer
$2M
47
3.2 yrs
Larry Hund
President & COO of Harley-Davidson Financial Services
$3M
62
Mark Kornetzke
Chief Accounting Officer
9.9 yrs
Shannon Burns
Director of Investor Relations
Joanne Bischmann
VP & Chief Communications Officer
56
8.9 yrs
Julie Anding
VP & Chief Human Resources Officer
49
0.3 yrs
Ray Drea
Chief Stylist
Mike Kennedy
VP & MD of Americas
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the Harley-Davidson board of directors in years:
- The tenure for the Harley-Davidson board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors
Mike Cave
Non-Executive Chairman
$395K
57
3 yrs
Matt Levatich
President
$11M
53
4.2 yrs
Tom Linebarger
Independent Director
$255K
55
10.8 yrs
Troy Alstead
Independent Director
$458K
55
2.2 yrs
Sara Levinson
Independent Director
$235K
67
23.2 yrs
Jochen Zeitz
Independent Director
$250K
55
11.7 yrs
R. Anderson
Independent Director
$235K
67
8.5 yrs
Brian Niccol
Independent Director
$235K
44
2.8 yrs
Maryrose Sylvester
Independent Director
$240K
53
2.8 yrs
Allan Golston
Independent Director
$443K
51
2.2 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Transactions
| Announced | Type | Name | Entity | Role | Start | End | Shares | Max Price ($) | Value ($) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08. Aug 18 | Sell | Jochen Zeitz | Individual | 06. Aug 18 | 06. Aug 18 | -1,598 | $43.50 | $-69,507 | ||
Management checks
We assess Harley-Davidson's management by checking for:- Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
- Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
- Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
- Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check) Harley-Davidson has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.
Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .
Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.
News
Simply Wall St News
What Does Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Share Price Indicate?
As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock? … Today I will analyse the most recent data on Harley-Davidson’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists
Simply Wall St - – Full articleCan Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) ROE Continue To Surpass The Industry Average?
This article is for those who would like to learn about Return On Equity (ROE). … One way to conceptualize this, is that for each $1 of shareholders' equity it has, the company made $0.30 in profit. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity
Simply Wall St - – Full articleIf You Had Bought Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Stock Five Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 48% Loss, Today
By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time. … During the five years over which the share price declined, Harley-Davidson's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 0.6% each year. … Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 12% per year, over the period.
Simply Wall St - – Full articleIs Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) A Smart Pick For Income Investors?
The stock currently pays out a dividend yield of 4.0%, and has a market cap of US$5.9b. … Let's dig deeper into whether Harley-Davidson should have a place in your portfolio. … 5 checks you should use to assess a dividend stock
Simply Wall St - – Full articleWhat Should Investors Know About Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Growth?
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) announced its latest earnings update in December 2018, whicha … signalled
Simply Wall St - – Full articleHarley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG): Earnings Growth Remains Elusive
Want to participate in a short research study? … Help shape the future of investing tools and receive a $20 prize! … (NYSE:HOG) released its latest earnings announcement on 31 December 2018,
Simply Wall St - – Full articleHarley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Is Trading At A 24.83% Discount
by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. … discounted cash flows (DCF) … If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Simply Wall St - – Full articleWhy Income Investors Should Have Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) In Their Portfolio
Over the past 10 years, the US$5.6b market cap company has been growing its dividend payments, from $1.32 to $1.48. … Currently yielding 4.3%, let's take a closer look at Harley-Davidson's dividend profile. … reliable and steady dividend over the past decade, at a rate that is competitive relative to the other dividend-paying companies on the market
Simply Wall St - – Full articleHow Do Harley-Davidson, Inc.’s (NYSE:HOG) Returns On Capital Compare To Peers?
In particular, we'll consider its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), as that can give us insight into how profitably the company is able to employ capital in its business. … What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)? … ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business.
Simply Wall St - – Full articleIs Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) CEO Overpaid Relative To Its Peers?
First, this article will compare CEO compensation with compensation at similar sized companies. … How Does Matt Levatich's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies. … has a market cap of US$5.6b, and is paying total annual CEO compensation of US$11m.
Simply Wall St - – Full articleCompany Info
Description
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and motorcycle parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses the Harley-Davidson brand to third-party financial institutions. The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Details
| Name: | Harley-Davidson, Inc. |
| HOG | |
| Exchange: | NYSE |
| Founded: | 1903 |
| $6,404,537,646 | |
| 157,128,009 | |
| Website: | http://www.harley-davidson.com |
| Address: |
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 53208, United States |
Listings
| Exchange Symbol | Ticker Symbol | Security | Exchange | Country | Currency | Listed on | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE | HOG | Common Stock | New York Stock Exchange | US | USD | 08. Jul 1986 | |
| DB | HAR | Common Stock | Deutsche Boerse AG | DE | EUR | 08. Jul 1986 | |
| XTRA | HAR | Common Stock | XETRA Trading Platform | DE | EUR | 08. Jul 1986 | |
| LSE | 0QYY | Common Stock | London Stock Exchange | GB | USD | 08. Jul 1986 | |
| WBAG | HOG | Common Stock | Wiener Boerse AG | AT | EUR | 08. Jul 1986 |
Number of employees
Current staff
Industry
| Motorcycle Manufacturers | |
| Automobiles |
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Area | Date (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis updated: | 2019/04/16 23:38 |
| End of day share price update: | 2019/04/16 00:00 |
| Last estimates confirmation: | 2019/04/16 |
| Last earnings filing: | 2019/02/28 |
| Last earnings reported: | 2018/12/31 |
| Last annual earnings reported: | 2018/12/31 |
All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.
