The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value. We use
analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years.
See our documentation to learn about this calculation.
|Levered FCF (USD, Millions)||$644.33||$733.83||$763.33||$767.67||$655.50|
|Source||Analyst x6||Analyst x6||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Analyst x2|
Discounted (@ 10.1%)
Present value of next 5 years cash flows:
Terminal Value = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
Terminal Value = $656 × (1 + 2.47%) ÷ (10.1% – 2.47%)
Terminal value based on the Perpetuity Method where growth (g) =
Present value of terminal value:
Equity Value (Total value) = Present value of next 5 years cash flows +
$8,133 = $2,690 + $5,442
Value = Total value / Shares Outstanding ($8,133 / 167)Discount to Share Price
Value per share:
Current discount (share price of $46.3): 4.97%
The discount rate, or required rate of return, is estimated by calculating the Cost of Equity.
Discount rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
Discount rate = 10.1% = 2.47% + (1.013 * 7.53%)
The Levered Beta is the Unlevered Beta adjusted for financial leverage. It is limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm). Note the market value of equity is used not the book value ($7,728,812,700).
Levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
1.013 = 0.657 (1 + (1- 40%) (90.42%))
Levered Beta used in calculation = 1.013
Mr. Matthew S. Levatich, also known as Matt, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since May 1, 2015. Mr. Levatich served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company, Inc. from May 1, 2009 to May 1, 2015. He served as President and Managing Director of MV Agusta, the Italian motorcycle maker that Harley-Davidson, Inc. acquired last August. While at MV, he spearheaded the restarting of MV's operations. In his 15 years at Harley-Davidson, he has held positions of increasing responsibility in the U.S. and Europe. He served as General Manager of Parts & Accessories and Custom Vehicle Operations and Vice President of Materials Management - Harley-Davidson Motor at Harley-Davidson, Inc., since November 2007 to July 2008 and October 2003 to October 2007 respectively. He joined Harley-Davidson in 1994 through its Leadership Development Program and quickly worked his way up to several senior roles within Harley-Davidson. Before that, he had managed all aspects of Harley-Davidson's global parts and accessories business after successfully leading its worldwide supply chain operations. Prior to Harley-Davidson, he held various supervising roles at Albany International in New York. He has been an Independent Director of Emerson Electric Co., since August 2012 and of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since February 4, 2015. He serves on the executive advisory board of the MMM Program at the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management and Robert R. McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Northwestern University and is a trustee on the Milwaukee Institute of Art and Design and a Regent at the Milwaukee School of Engineering (MSOE). Mr. Levatich holds an Undergraduate Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. He holds ME in Engineering Management and MBA in Marketing, Finance and Organizational Behavior from Northwestern University.
Average tenure and age of the Harley-Davidson management team in years:
Average tenure and age of the Harley-Davidson board of directors in years:
5-year cash flow forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $828.71 $920.80 $929.00 $825.67 $713.00 Source Analyst x7 Analyst x4 Analyst x2 Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Present Value Discounted @ 10.09% $752.75 $759.74 $696.25 $562.09 $440.90 Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $3,212 The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = $713 × (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (10.1% – 2.5%) = $9,588 Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = $9,588 / ( 1 + 10.1%)5 = $5,929 The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is $9,141. … NYSE:HOG Intrinsic Value Jan 30th 18 The assumptions Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows.Simply Wall St - – Full article
Breaking Down HOG's Profit Margin Attractive margins generally indicate a desirable ability to translate sales revenue in to earnings, and return for shareholders. … Margin Calculation for HOG Profit Margin = Net Income ÷ Revenue ∴ Profit Margin = 560.62 Million ÷ 5.53 Billion = 10.14% The past five years have seen Harley-Davidson's margin expand, as a result of a 6.55% average growth in net income outstripping a 2.23% average growth in revenue, which suggests that the company has been able to convert a larger percentage of revenue into net income whilst grow their top line at the same time. … This suggests future earnings growth is driven further by enhanced cost efficiency alongside revenue increases, which is enlarging the incremental amount of net income that is retained from the forecasted revenue growth.Simply Wall St - – Full article
NYSE:HOG Historical Dividend Yield Dec 24th 17 C.H. … NasdaqGS:CHRW Historical Dividend Yield Dec 24th 17 Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) F has an appealing dividend yield of 5.17% and is currently distributing 54.09% of profits to shareholders. … NYSE:F Historical Dividend Yield Dec 24th 17 For more solid dividend payers to add to your portfolio, you can use our free platform to explore our interactive list of top dividend payers.Simply Wall St - – Full article
I prefer to use data from the most recent 12 months, which either annualizes the most recent 6-month earnings update, or in some cases, the most recent annual report is already the latest available financial data. … Eyeballing growth from a sector-level, the US automobiles industry has been growing its average earnings by double-digit 19.97% in the past year, and a less exciting 8.86% over the past five years. … In some cases, companies that experience a prolonged period of reduction in earnings are going through some sort of reinvestment phase with the aim of keeping up with the recent industry disruption and expansion.Simply Wall St - – Full article
View our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson 5 checks you should do on a dividend stock When assessing a stock as a potential addition to my dividend Portfolio, I look at these five areas: Does it pay an annual yield higher than 75% of dividend payers? … Going forward, analysts expect HOG's payout to remain around the same level at 42.97% of its earnings, which leads to a dividend yield of around 3.09%. … With Harley-Davidson producing strong dividend income for your portfolio over the past few years, you can take comfort in knowing that this stock will still continue to be a robust dividend generator moving forward.Simply Wall St - – Full article
Harley-Davidson, Inc. primarily manufactures and sells cruiser and touring motorcycles. The company operates through two segments, Motorcycles & Related Products, and Financial Services. The Motorcycles & Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells wholesale on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise, and related services. It offers motorcycle parts and accessories, such as replacement parts, and mechanical and cosmetic accessories; general merchandise, including MotorClothes apparel and riding gears; and various services to its independent dealers comprising motorcycle services, business management training programs, and customized dealer software packages. This segment also licenses the Harley-Davidson name and other trademarks. It sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as ecommerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale and retail financing services; and insurance and insurance-related programs primarily to Harley-Davidson dealers and retail customers in the United States and Canada. This segment offers wholesale financial services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and motorcycle parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles. It also operates as an agent providing point-of-sale protection products, including motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, credit protection, and motorcycle maintenance protection. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
3700 West Juneau Avenue,
|Exchange Symbol||Ticker Symbol||Security||Exchange||Country||Currency||Listed on|
|NYSE||HOG||Common Stock||New York Stock Exchange||US||USD||08. Jul 1986|
|DB||HAR||Common Stock||Deutsche Boerse AG||DE||EUR||08. Jul 1986|
|LSE||0QYY||Common Stock||London Stock Exchange||GB||USD||08. Jul 1986|
|SWX||HOG||Common Stock||SIX Swiss Exchange||CH||CHF||08. Jul 1986|
|Company Analysis updated:||2018/02/22|
|Last estimates confirmation:||2018/02/13|
|Last earnings update:||2017/12/31|
|Last annual earnings update:||2017/12/31|
All dates in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.