NYSE:HOG

Stock Analysis Report

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Executive Summary

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Moderate growth potential second-rate dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Harley-Davidson's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: HOG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: HOG's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-2.0%

HOG

-9.6%

US Auto

-0.4%

US Market


1 Year Return

33.5%

HOG

230.4%

US Auto

36.2%

US Market

Return vs Industry: HOG underperformed the US Auto industry which returned 230.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HOG underperformed the US Market which returned 36.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

HOGIndustryMarket
7 Day-2.0%-9.6%-0.4%
30 Day3.8%-25.6%-2.9%
90 Day-11.1%-5.8%5.0%
1 Year34.4%33.5%230.8%230.4%39.1%36.2%
3 Year-13.9%-21.2%298.2%276.3%48.4%39.0%
5 Year-17.4%-28.5%442.1%373.8%116.5%92.4%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Harley-Davidson's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Harley-Davidson undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

4127.23x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: HOG ($34.97) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($22.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: HOG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (4127.2x) compared to the US Auto industry average (48.2x).

PE vs Market: HOG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (4127.2x) compared to the US market (21.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: HOG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (141.1x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its PB Ratio (3.1x) compared to the US Auto industry average (4.5x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Harley-Davidson forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

29.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HOG's forecast earnings growth (29.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: HOG's earnings (29.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (19.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: HOG's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (10% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HOG's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.4%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Harley-Davidson performed over the past 5 years?

-25.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: HOG has a large one-off loss of $130.0M impacting its December 31 2020 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: HOG's current net profit margins (0.03%) are lower than last year (7.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HOG's earnings have declined by 25.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: HOG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: HOG had negative earnings growth (-99.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Auto industry average (-1.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: HOG's Return on Equity (0.08%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Harley-Davidson's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HOG's short term assets ($5.8B) exceed its short term liabilities ($4.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: HOG's short term assets ($5.8B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($6.3B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HOG's debt to equity ratio (521.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: HOG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 373.6% to 521.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: HOG's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (13.1%).

Interest Coverage: HOG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Harley-Davidson current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.72%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: HOG's dividend (1.72%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.31%).

High Dividend: HOG's dividend (1.72%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.64%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: HOG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: HOG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (5193%), HOG's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: HOG's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (25.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jochen Zeitz (57 yo)

1.08yrs

Tenure

US$250,000

Compensation

Mr. Jochen Zeitz is the Founder of The Zeitz Foundation. He has been Chairman of Harley-Davidson, Inc. since February 2020. Mr. Zeitz serves as President and Chief Executive Officer at Harley-Davidson, Inc...


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Jochen Zeitz
Chairman1.08yrsUS$250.00k0.17%
$ 8.9m
Lawrence Hund
Chief Commercial Officer1.17yrsUS$2.61m0.027%
$ 1.4m
Luke Mansfield
VP & Chief Strategy Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company2.33yrsUS$1.27m0.0053%
$ 282.5k
Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer0.50yrno data0.00015%
$ 7.9k
Mark Kornetzke
Chief Accounting Officer11.83yrsno data0.0056%
$ 295.2k
Julie Anding
VP & Chief Administrative Officerno datano data0.0056%
$ 296.2k
Shannon Burns
Director of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Paul Krause
VP, Chief Legal1.33yrsno data0.0022%
$ 118.7k
Amy Giuffre
VP & Chief Communications Officerno datano data0.014%
$ 721.3k
Ray Drea
Chief Stylistno datano datano data
Sajeev Rajasekharan
Managing Director of Harley India2.42yrsno datano data
Jagdish Krishnan
Chief Digital Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company0.58yrno data0.000070%
$ 3.7k

1.3yrs

Average Tenure

50yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: HOG's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Jochen Zeitz
Chairman1.08yrsUS$250.00k0.17%
$ 8.9m
N. Linebarger
Independent Presiding Director0.83yrUS$255.00k0.0029%
$ 151.6k
Sara Levinson
Independent Director25.08yrsUS$235.00k0.0032%
$ 169.6k
Michael Cave
Independent Presiding Director1.08yrsUS$395.00k0.0024%
$ 128.8k
R. Anderson
Independent Director10.42yrsUS$235.00k0.0015%
$ 80.0k
Troy Alstead
Independent Director4.08yrsUS$255.00k0.0099%
$ 526.8k
Maryrose Sylvester
Independent Director4.67yrsUS$240.00k0.012%
$ 659.8k
Allan Golston
Independent Director4.08yrsUS$240.00k0.011%
$ 595.1k
Brian Niccol
Independent Director4.67yrsUS$235.00k0.015%
$ 797.0k

4.1yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: HOG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: HOG insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Harley-Davidson, Inc.
  • Ticker: HOG
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1903
  • Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
  • Sector: Automobiles
  • Market Cap: US$5.300b
  • Shares outstanding: 151.54m
  • Website: https://www.harley-davidson.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Harley-Davidson, Inc.
  • 3700 West Juneau Avenue
  • Milwaukee
  • Wisconsin
  • 53208
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
HOGNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJul 1986
HARDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
HARXTRA (XETRA Trading Platform)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
0QYYLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJul 1986
HARETLX (Eurotlx)YesCommon StockITEURJul 1986
HOGWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesCommon StockATEURJul 1986
HOG *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon StockMXMXNJul 1986
HOGBASE (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange)CEDEAR EA REP 1/3 ORD (USD)ARARSSep 2005
H1OG34BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)BDR EACH 1 REPR 1 SHS UNSPONBRBRLJan 2020

Biography

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Rel...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/03/08 00:08
End of Day Share Price2021/03/05 00:00
Earnings2020/12/31
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.