Harley-Davidson, Inc.

NYSE:HOG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.0b

Harley-Davidson Valuation

Is HOG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HOG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HOG ($30.48) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($30.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HOG?

Key metric: As HOG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HOG. This is calculated by dividing HOG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HOG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.5x
EarningsUS$598.06m
Market CapUS$4.02b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HOG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HOG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.5x
MAMO Massimo Group
14.8xn/aUS$107.6m
THO THOR Industries
24.6x23.3%US$5.4b
DORM Dorman Products
21.3x10.6%US$4.1b
LEA Lear
9.3x17.8%US$5.1b
HOG Harley-Davidson
6.5x2.5%US$4.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the peer average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HOG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HOG 6.5xIndustry Avg. 15.9xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HOG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HOG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.5x
Fair PE Ratio12.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HOG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$30.48
US$37.61
+23.4%
8.1%US$40.00US$31.50n/a9
Dec ’25US$33.63
US$37.61
+11.8%
8.1%US$40.00US$31.50n/a9
Nov ’25US$31.87
US$38.17
+19.8%
7.8%US$40.00US$31.50n/a9
Oct ’25US$38.02
US$42.31
+11.3%
11.2%US$50.00US$33.50n/a8
Sep ’25US$37.44
US$42.06
+12.3%
11.7%US$50.00US$33.50n/a8
Aug ’25US$36.50
US$42.25
+15.8%
10.7%US$50.00US$36.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$32.35
US$42.44
+31.2%
12.3%US$51.00US$34.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$35.88
US$42.67
+18.9%
11.5%US$51.00US$36.00n/a9
May ’25US$34.38
US$43.31
+26.0%
11.1%US$51.00US$36.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$43.55
US$44.01
+1.1%
11.8%US$55.00US$37.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$36.34
US$43.11
+18.6%
10.0%US$50.00US$37.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$33.38
US$40.94
+22.7%
14.0%US$50.00US$29.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$36.84
US$40.39
+9.6%
13.8%US$50.00US$29.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$31.33
US$38.94
+24.3%
16.8%US$50.00US$29.00US$33.639
Nov ’24US$27.30
US$41.50
+52.0%
10.8%US$50.00US$33.00US$31.879
Oct ’24US$33.06
US$46.28
+40.0%
12.4%US$55.00US$35.00US$38.029
Sep ’24US$34.21
US$46.83
+36.9%
10.2%US$55.00US$40.00US$37.449
Aug ’24US$38.52
US$46.83
+21.6%
10.2%US$55.00US$40.00US$36.509
Jul ’24US$35.21
US$45.61
+29.5%
13.2%US$57.00US$36.00US$32.359
Jun ’24US$31.33
US$47.28
+50.9%
14.0%US$57.00US$37.00US$35.889
May ’24US$36.83
US$48.81
+32.5%
11.5%US$57.00US$39.00US$34.388
Apr ’24US$37.97
US$52.39
+38.0%
10.0%US$65.00US$47.00US$43.559
Mar ’24US$47.49
US$51.65
+8.8%
12.7%US$65.00US$39.00US$36.3410
Feb ’24US$46.72
US$48.20
+3.2%
12.3%US$60.00US$39.00US$33.3810
Jan ’24US$41.60
US$47.73
+14.7%
12.4%US$60.00US$39.00US$36.8411
Dec ’23US$47.31
US$46.91
-0.8%
13.3%US$60.00US$39.00US$31.3311

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 23:29
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is covered by 38 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Rommel DionisioAegis Capital Corporation
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Craig KennisonBaird