Harley-Davidson Valuation

Is HOG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HOG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HOG ($43.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($44.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HOG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HOG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA11.8x
PEG Ratio-12x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HOG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HOG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.9x
THO THOR Industries
22.5x22.9%US$6.1b
MOD Modine Manufacturing
22x6.8%US$5.0b
BWA BorgWarner
12.7x12.5%US$8.0b
LEA Lear
14.4x21.3%US$8.3b
HOG Harley-Davidson
8.4x-0.7%US$6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the peer average (17.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HOG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (14.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HOG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HOG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.4x
Fair PE Ratio12.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HOG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HOG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$43.66
US$44.01
+0.8%
11.8%US$55.00US$37.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$36.34
US$43.11
+18.6%
10.0%US$50.00US$37.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$33.38
US$40.94
+22.7%
14.0%US$50.00US$29.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$36.84
US$40.39
+9.6%
13.8%US$50.00US$29.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$31.33
US$38.94
+24.3%
16.8%US$50.00US$29.00n/a9
Nov ’24US$27.30
US$41.50
+52.0%
10.8%US$50.00US$33.00n/a9
Oct ’24US$33.06
US$46.28
+40.0%
12.4%US$55.00US$35.00n/a9
Sep ’24US$34.21
US$46.83
+36.9%
10.2%US$55.00US$40.00n/a9
Aug ’24US$38.52
US$46.83
+21.6%
10.2%US$55.00US$40.00n/a9
Jul ’24US$35.21
US$45.61
+29.5%
13.2%US$57.00US$36.00n/a9
Jun ’24US$31.33
US$47.28
+50.9%
14.0%US$57.00US$37.00n/a9
May ’24US$36.83
US$48.81
+32.5%
11.5%US$57.00US$39.00n/a8
Apr ’24US$37.97
US$52.39
+38.0%
10.0%US$65.00US$47.00n/a9
Mar ’24US$47.49
US$51.65
+8.8%
12.7%US$65.00US$39.00US$36.3410
Feb ’24US$46.72
US$48.20
+3.2%
12.3%US$60.00US$39.00US$33.3810
Jan ’24US$41.60
US$47.73
+14.7%
12.4%US$60.00US$39.00US$36.8411
Dec ’23US$47.31
US$46.91
-0.8%
13.3%US$60.00US$39.00US$31.3311
Nov ’23US$44.08
US$46.10
+4.6%
14.5%US$60.00US$40.00US$27.3010
Oct ’23US$34.88
US$45.67
+30.9%
18.8%US$60.00US$36.00US$33.069
Sep ’23US$38.23
US$45.67
+19.5%
18.8%US$60.00US$36.00US$34.219
Aug ’23US$37.71
US$45.50
+20.7%
19.2%US$60.00US$36.00US$38.529
Jul ’23US$31.99
US$47.78
+49.4%
21.4%US$70.00US$35.00US$35.219
Jun ’23US$33.85
US$49.38
+45.9%
19.7%US$70.00US$41.00US$31.338
May ’23US$36.45
US$49.75
+36.5%
19.3%US$70.00US$41.00US$36.838
Apr ’23US$38.76
US$51.38
+32.5%
20.1%US$70.00US$41.00US$37.978
Mar ’23US$40.02
US$51.89
+29.7%
18.9%US$70.00US$41.00US$47.499

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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