Harley-Davidson, Inc.

NYSE:HOG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.5b

Harley-Davidson Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Harley-Davidson's revenue is forecast to decline at 2.2% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 9.8% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 15.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.7% in 3 years.

Key information

9.8%

Earnings growth rate

15.14%

EPS growth rate

Auto earnings growth37.1%
Revenue growth rate-2.2%
Future return on equity7.68%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated14 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 28

HOG: Brand Refresh And Buybacks Will Confront Ongoing Demand And Dealer Concerns

The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been trimmed by less than $0.05, as analysts reflect weaker revenue growth assumptions alongside slightly firmer profit margin and lower future P/E expectations, following a series of reduced Street targets and new Underweight ratings that highlight demand concerns and business uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Harley-Davidson clusters around concern for demand, dealer health and the longer term direction of the business, with several firms trimming price targets and leaning cautious on the shares.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 16

Harley-Davidson: Losing Its Grip On The Road Ahead

Summary Harley-Davidson faces persistent volume declines, an aging customer base, and intensifying competition, with recent balance sheet improvements failing to address core structural challenges. HOG's 2026 outlook signals a reset year, with HDMC operating income expected between a $40M loss and a $10M profit, reflecting ongoing margin and demand pressures. Management's cost-cutting and inventory actions may steady operations, but demographic headwinds, tariffs, and weak pricing power limit prospects for real growth. I maintain a 'hold' rating, as valuation reflects some risks but lacks catalysts for upside; investors should remain cautious given limited visibility into a turnaround. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 13

HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Counter Ongoing Demand And Dealer Concerns

Harley-Davidson’s analyst price target has been modestly adjusted to $22.18, as analysts factor in slightly less severe revenue contraction and profit margin pressure, along with a higher assumed future P/E and a wave of recent target cuts and Underweight ratings that highlight concerns around demand, dealer health, and overall business direction. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned cautious, with several firms trimming price targets and initiating with Underweight or Neutral ratings.
Narrative Update • Mar 28

HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Offset Ongoing Demand And Dealer Pressures

Harley-Davidson's analyst price targets have been reset lower, with reductions from firms including UBS, Morgan Stanley, Baird, DA Davidson, and Citi. Wells Fargo also initiated coverage with an Underweight rating and a $15 target, as analysts highlight ongoing demand softness, dealer pressures, and uncertainty around the direction of the business.
Narrative Update • Mar 12

HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Support Future Brand And Margin Resilience

We are trimming our Harley-Davidson fair value estimate to $22.00 from $23.50, reflecting a series of lower Street price targets and analyst concerns about weak demand, dealer health, profit pressure, and higher implied future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Street research has tilted cautious on Harley-Davidson, with several firms reducing price targets and flagging execution and demand risks.
Narrative Update • Feb 25

HOG: Product Refresh And Share Repurchases Will Support Future Margin Stability

The updated analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been revised to $23.50 from $26.50. This change reflects recent cuts across the Street as analysts factor in a choppy consumer backdrop, softer profit expectations, and adjusted powersports estimates following Q4 results and industry events.
Narrative Update • Feb 10

HOG: Inventory Actions And Lower Price Models Will Support Future Margin Stability

Narrative Update: Harley-Davidson Analysts have reduced their price targets on Harley-Davidson by up to $5, citing weaker retail conditions, margin pressure from clearing inventory, and an expected shift toward lower price point models. This is reflected in lower EPS estimates for coming periods.
Analysis Article • Feb 09

Is Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Narrative Update • Jan 26

HOG: Inventory Cleanup And Dealer Health Efforts Will Support Future Margin Stability

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Harley-Davidson to $26.50 from $27.50, citing lower price targets and updated earnings expectations that reflect a softer retail backdrop, margin pressure from inventory clearance, and some product mix headwinds, even as recent commentary highlights efforts to improve dealer health and rebuild trust across the network. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Harley-Davidson point to a mixed setup, with price targets moving lower but with some constructive views on execution efforts and dealer health.
Narrative Update • Jan 09

HOG: New Leadership Actions Will Drive Inventory Cleanup And Margin Stability

Analysts have trimmed Harley-Davidson's blended price target to a range of about US$21 to US$30, citing concerns about weaker retail demand, inventory-related margin pressure and product mix. These factors are partly offset by confidence in new CEO led inventory actions and efforts to improve dealer health.
Narrative Update • Dec 18

HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Inventory Clearance And Future Margin Recovery

The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has edged down by $0.10 as analysts factor in weaker retail demand, ongoing inventory clearance related margin pressure, and mixed views on the pace of recovery despite recent management actions to improve dealer health. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a divided view on Harley-Davidson's outlook, with some emphasizing operational progress and others highlighting structural headwinds that could weigh on valuation and earnings power.
Analysis Article • Dec 06

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.18

Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.18 per share on the 22nd of...
Narrative Update • Dec 04

HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Inventory Reset And Future Margin Stability

Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been trimmed modestly, with fair value estimates easing by about $0.70 per share as analysts factor in weaker retail trends, margin pressure tied to inventory clearance, and a slightly lower future earnings multiple, despite ongoing efforts to improve dealer health and rebuild network trust. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a widening divide between cautious and constructive views on Harley-Davidson, with valuation resets incorporating both near term execution risk and potential upside from operational changes under new leadership.
Narrative Update • Nov 20

HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Dealer Health And Inventory Improvement

Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been revised downward by $1 to $28. Analysts cite ongoing inventory challenges, cautious retail trends, and mixed outlooks on recent management changes as key factors influencing the adjustment.
Analysis Article • Aug 29

A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) 26% Share Price Climb

Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month...
Analysis Article • Jul 18

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Analysis Article • Jun 16

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.3x Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) may be sending very bullish...
Analysis Article • May 20

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Analysis Article • Apr 22

Why Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Could Be Worth Watching

While Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share price...
Analysis Article • Mar 18

There's No Escaping Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Muted Earnings

Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s ( NYSE:HOG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x might make it look like a strong buy...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 04

Harley-Davidson: Secular Decline And Market Share Deterioration Weaken Outlook

Summary Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s sales have declined over the long term. On top of a secular decline in the US, the brand's market share has deteriorated in both the US and Europe. The company's LiveWire brand isn't gaining customers, generating significant losses and showing little promise for a turnaround. Dealers' overstocked inventories are exacerbating Harley-Davidson's weak short-term financial performance. Despite a P/E below 8, I don't believe HOG stock to be attractive. The company ultimately needs to stabilize its sales, which seems unlikely for now. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Feb 20

Harley-Davidson's (NYSE:HOG) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) will increase its dividend on the 14th of March to $0.18, which is 4.3% higher than...
Analysis Article • Feb 16

Some Investors May Be Worried About Harley-Davidson's (NYSE:HOG) Returns On Capital

To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications...
Analysis Article • Jan 31

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:HOG - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20283,860218N/AN/A3
12/31/20273,93818717838312
12/31/20263,7783440817212
3/31/20264,31623044199N/A
12/31/20254,473339415569N/A
9/30/20254,665501392550N/A
6/30/20254,475243821996N/A
3/31/20254,7863549211,101N/A
12/31/20245,1874558671,064N/A
9/30/20245,552598770979N/A
6/30/20245,951678713922N/A
3/31/20245,777637604812N/A
12/31/20235,836707547755N/A
9/30/20235,926723475681N/A
6/30/20236,025785532715N/A
3/31/20236,049823287456N/A
12/31/20225,755741397548N/A
9/25/20225,629721481625N/A
6/26/20225,346623438576N/A
3/27/20225,409613823952N/A
12/31/20215,336650856976N/A
9/30/20215,045532868968N/A
6/27/20214,8454891,1101,212N/A
3/28/20214,1791911,2321,349N/A
12/31/20204,05411,0471,178N/A
9/27/20204,4011111,0021,155N/A
6/30/20204,50878817982N/A
3/31/20205,276365648827N/A
12/31/20195,362424N/A868N/A
9/29/20195,435411N/A932N/A
6/30/20195,479438N/A966N/A
3/31/20195,559485N/A1,047N/A
12/31/20185,717531N/A1,206N/A
9/30/20185,800539N/A1,179N/A
7/1/20185,635494N/A1,114N/A
4/1/20185,687510N/A1,037N/A
12/31/20175,647522N/A1,005N/A
9/24/20175,529561N/A1,196N/A
6/25/20175,653606N/A1,345N/A
3/26/20175,748628N/A1,293N/A
12/31/20165,996692N/A1,174N/A
9/25/20166,066687N/A1,007N/A
6/26/20166,109713N/A942N/A
3/27/20166,072733N/A967N/A
12/31/20155,995752N/A1,100N/A
9/27/20156,015784N/A1,201N/A
6/28/20155,999794N/A1,190N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HOG's forecast earnings growth (9.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: HOG's earnings (9.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HOG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: HOG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-2.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HOG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.2% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/29 18:28
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/29 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Craig KennisonBaird
Felicia Kantor HendrixBarclays