Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.3x Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 18x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

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While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Harley-Davidson's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson

Keen to find out how analysts think Harley-Davidson's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Any Growth For Harley-Davidson?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Harley-Davidson's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 40%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 27% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 15% each year during the coming three years according to the twelve analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 10% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's peculiar that Harley-Davidson's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Final Word

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Harley-Davidson's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/E ratio. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Harley-Davidson (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.