Harley-Davidson Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
Harley-Davidson's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -7.1%, while the Auto industry saw earnings declining at 13% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 1.6% per year. Harley-Davidson's return on equity is 7.2%, and it has net margins of 5.3%.
Key information
-7.09%
Earnings growth rate
-2.92%
EPS growth rate
| Auto Industry Growth | 23.94% |
| Revenue growth rate | -1.57% |
| Return on equity | 7.22% |
| Net Margin | 5.34% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 23
HOG: Turnaround Execution And Reshoring Plans Will Test Dealer And Demand Improvements
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been nudged higher to approximately $25.64 from about $25.45, as analysts factor in recent estimate revisions tied to a Q1 beat, improved competitive positioning, and easing tariff pressures, while still viewing some longer term targets as ambitious. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary on Harley-Davidson points to a more constructive stance on near term execution, while still flagging meaningful questions around how achievable some of the longer range targets are.Seeking Alpha • Jun 20
Harley-Davidson: The Margin Reset Could Rip The Bear Case Apart
Summary HOG is priced like the margin collapse is permanent, yet Q1 retail sales rose 8% and dealer inventory fell 22%, signaling demand may have stopped bleeding. The 2027 reset is the first catalyst: less discounting, $150M+ cost cuts, U.S.-built Revolution Max, and fuller York production can lift HDMC EBITDA to over $350M. My base case is $32 in 12-18 months and $48 in 2-3 years, with greater upside if Harley turns dealers into rider factories and rebuilds cultural demand. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 05
HOG: Turnaround Plan And Buybacks Will Confront Ongoing Demand And Dealer Risks
Analysts have raised the implied fair value for Harley-Davidson stock from about $22.14 to $25.45, citing higher Street price targets around $15, along with updated assumptions for slower revenue declines, improved profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed picture for Harley-Davidson, with several firms lifting price targets while still urging caution on the stock.Narrative Update • Apr 28
HOG: Brand Refresh And Buybacks Will Confront Ongoing Demand And Dealer Concerns
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been trimmed by less than $0.05, as analysts reflect weaker revenue growth assumptions alongside slightly firmer profit margin and lower future P/E expectations, following a series of reduced Street targets and new Underweight ratings that highlight demand concerns and business uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Harley-Davidson clusters around concern for demand, dealer health and the longer term direction of the business, with several firms trimming price targets and leaning cautious on the shares.Narrative Update • Apr 13
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Counter Ongoing Demand And Dealer Concerns
Harley-Davidson’s analyst price target has been modestly adjusted to $22.18, as analysts factor in slightly less severe revenue contraction and profit margin pressure, along with a higher assumed future P/E and a wave of recent target cuts and Underweight ratings that highlight concerns around demand, dealer health, and overall business direction. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned cautious, with several firms trimming price targets and initiating with Underweight or Neutral ratings.Narrative Update • Mar 28
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Offset Ongoing Demand And Dealer Pressures
Harley-Davidson's analyst price targets have been reset lower, with reductions from firms including UBS, Morgan Stanley, Baird, DA Davidson, and Citi. Wells Fargo also initiated coverage with an Underweight rating and a $15 target, as analysts highlight ongoing demand softness, dealer pressures, and uncertainty around the direction of the business.Narrative Update • Mar 12
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Support Future Brand And Margin Resilience
We are trimming our Harley-Davidson fair value estimate to $22.00 from $23.50, reflecting a series of lower Street price targets and analyst concerns about weak demand, dealer health, profit pressure, and higher implied future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Street research has tilted cautious on Harley-Davidson, with several firms reducing price targets and flagging execution and demand risks.Narrative Update • Feb 25
HOG: Product Refresh And Share Repurchases Will Support Future Margin Stability
The updated analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been revised to $23.50 from $26.50. This change reflects recent cuts across the Street as analysts factor in a choppy consumer backdrop, softer profit expectations, and adjusted powersports estimates following Q4 results and industry events.Narrative Update • Feb 10
HOG: Inventory Actions And Lower Price Models Will Support Future Margin Stability
Narrative Update: Harley-Davidson Analysts have reduced their price targets on Harley-Davidson by up to $5, citing weaker retail conditions, margin pressure from clearing inventory, and an expected shift toward lower price point models. This is reflected in lower EPS estimates for coming periods.Analysis Article • Feb 09
Is Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Narrative Update • Jan 26
HOG: Inventory Cleanup And Dealer Health Efforts Will Support Future Margin Stability
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Harley-Davidson to $26.50 from $27.50, citing lower price targets and updated earnings expectations that reflect a softer retail backdrop, margin pressure from inventory clearance, and some product mix headwinds, even as recent commentary highlights efforts to improve dealer health and rebuild trust across the network. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Harley-Davidson point to a mixed setup, with price targets moving lower but with some constructive views on execution efforts and dealer health.Narrative Update • Jan 09
HOG: New Leadership Actions Will Drive Inventory Cleanup And Margin Stability
Analysts have trimmed Harley-Davidson's blended price target to a range of about US$21 to US$30, citing concerns about weaker retail demand, inventory-related margin pressure and product mix. These factors are partly offset by confidence in new CEO led inventory actions and efforts to improve dealer health.Narrative Update • Dec 18
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Inventory Clearance And Future Margin Recovery
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has edged down by $0.10 as analysts factor in weaker retail demand, ongoing inventory clearance related margin pressure, and mixed views on the pace of recovery despite recent management actions to improve dealer health. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a divided view on Harley-Davidson's outlook, with some emphasizing operational progress and others highlighting structural headwinds that could weigh on valuation and earnings power.Analysis Article • Dec 06
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.18
Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.18 per share on the 22nd of...Narrative Update • Dec 04
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Inventory Reset And Future Margin Stability
Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been trimmed modestly, with fair value estimates easing by about $0.70 per share as analysts factor in weaker retail trends, margin pressure tied to inventory clearance, and a slightly lower future earnings multiple, despite ongoing efforts to improve dealer health and rebuild network trust. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a widening divide between cautious and constructive views on Harley-Davidson, with valuation resets incorporating both near term execution risk and potential upside from operational changes under new leadership.Narrative Update • Nov 20
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Dealer Health And Inventory Improvement
Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been revised downward by $1 to $28. Analysts cite ongoing inventory challenges, cautious retail trends, and mixed outlooks on recent management changes as key factors influencing the adjustment.Analysis Article • Aug 29
A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) 26% Share Price Climb
Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month...Analysis Article • Jul 18
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Jun 16
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.3x Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) may be sending very bullish...Analysis Article • May 20
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • Apr 22
Why Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Could Be Worth Watching
While Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share price...Analysis Article • Mar 18
There's No Escaping Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Muted Earnings
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s ( NYSE:HOG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x might make it look like a strong buy...Seeking Alpha • Mar 04
Harley-Davidson: Secular Decline And Market Share Deterioration Weaken Outlook
Summary Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s sales have declined over the long term. On top of a secular decline in the US, the brand's market share has deteriorated in both the US and Europe. The company's LiveWire brand isn't gaining customers, generating significant losses and showing little promise for a turnaround. Dealers' overstocked inventories are exacerbating Harley-Davidson's weak short-term financial performance. Despite a P/E below 8, I don't believe HOG stock to be attractive. The company ultimately needs to stabilize its sales, which seems unlikely for now. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 20
Harley-Davidson's (NYSE:HOG) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's
Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) will increase its dividend on the 14th of March to $0.18, which is 4.3% higher than...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Harley-Davidson makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 4,316 | 230 | 939 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 4,473 | 339 | 887 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 4,665 | 501 | 867 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 4,475 | 243 | 868 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 4,786 | 354 | 873 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 5,187 | 455 | 904 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 5,552 | 598 | 922 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 5,951 | 678 | 948 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 5,777 | 637 | 936 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 5,836 | 707 | 932 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 5,926 | 723 | 989 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 6,025 | 785 | 967 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 6,049 | 823 | 917 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 5,755 | 741 | 882 | 0 |
| 25 Sep 22 | 5,629 | 721 | 843 | 0 |
| 26 Jun 22 | 5,346 | 623 | 834 | 0 |
| 27 Mar 22 | 5,409 | 613 | 871 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 5,336 | 650 | 1,041 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 5,045 | 532 | 786 | 0 |
| 27 Jun 21 | 4,845 | 489 | 808 | 0 |
| 28 Mar 21 | 4,179 | 191 | 814 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 4,054 | 1 | 1,053 | 0 |
| 27 Sep 20 | 4,401 | 111 | 1,170 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 4,508 | 78 | 1,202 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 5,276 | 365 | 1,237 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 5,362 | 424 | 1,182 | 0 |
| 29 Sep 19 | 5,435 | 411 | 1,048 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 5,479 | 438 | 1,047 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 5,559 | 485 | 1,061 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 5,717 | 531 | 1,255 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 5,800 | 539 | 1,067 | 0 |
| 01 Jul 18 | 5,635 | 494 | 1,057 | 0 |
| 01 Apr 18 | 5,687 | 510 | 1,031 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 5,647 | 522 | 1,017 | 0 |
| 24 Sep 17 | 5,529 | 561 | 993 | 0 |
| 25 Jun 17 | 5,653 | 606 | 997 | 0 |
| 26 Mar 17 | 5,748 | 628 | 1,031 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 5,996 | 692 | 1,062 | 0 |
| 25 Sep 16 | 6,066 | 687 | 1,082 | 0 |
| 26 Jun 16 | 6,109 | 713 | 1,071 | 0 |
| 27 Mar 16 | 6,072 | 733 | 1,054 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 5,995 | 752 | 1,040 | 0 |
| 27 Sep 15 | 6,015 | 784 | 1,027 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: HOG has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: HOG's current net profit margins (5.3%) are lower than last year (7.4%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: HOG's earnings have declined by 7.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: HOG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: HOG had negative earnings growth (-34.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Auto industry average (-34.8%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: HOG's Return on Equity (7.2%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/06 17:16 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/02 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Coleman | Argus Research Company |
| Craig Kennison | Baird |
| Felicia Kantor Hendrix | Barclays |