Earnings Beat: Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$54.50 in the week since its latest yearly results. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of US$15b being 5.0% less than what the analysts had been modelling. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Vistra

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Vistra from five analysts is for revenues of US$17.4b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 15% to US$4.44. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$16.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.85 in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Vistra's future following the latest results, with a solid gain to the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Vistra 8.3% to US$49.80on the back of these upgrades. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Vistra, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$62.00 and the most bearish at US$26.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Vistra's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.5% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Vistra to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vistra following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Vistra going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Vistra (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.