Vistra Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Vistra has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 53.6%, while the Renewable Energy industry saw earnings growing at 13.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 10.1% per year. Vistra's return on equity is 18.5%, and it has net margins of 4.2%.
Key information
53.61%
Earnings growth rate
54.73%
EPS growth rate
| Renewable Energy Industry Growth | -5.84% |
| Revenue growth rate | 10.09% |
| Return on equity | 18.47% |
| Net Margin | 4.24% |
| Next Earnings Update | 07 May 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
VST: Data Center Power Hype Will Pressure Meta Nuclear And Gas Deal Risks
Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Vistra by about $3 to $145.33. This reflects slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, while still largely reaffirming their broader positive research stance on the stock.
VST: Long Term Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Demand And Undervalued Upside
Analysts have updated their view on Vistra with a higher fair value estimate, moving from $293.00 to $318.00. They cite recent mixed but generally supportive price target adjustments and ongoing confidence in the company story across several research firms.Vistra: Still Not Buying The Dip Here
Apr 06
VST: Long-Term Data Center Nuclear Contracts Will Shape Future Power Pricing
Analysts have made a modest upward adjustment to the Vistra price target to about $234 from about $233, reflecting fine tuned expectations around revenue growth, margin assumptions, and future P/E multiples following recent research updates that highlight both positive contract wins and more cautious views on gas exposure and sector valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra reflects a mix of enthusiasm around new long term contracts and growth projects, alongside more careful adjustments to gas exposure and valuation multiples.VST: Meta Nuclear Deals And Gas Acquisition Will Reshape Future Risk Profile
Vistra's analyst price target has been revised lower by about $20.94, with analysts citing updated sector-wide assumptions, tempered revenue growth outlooks, and adjustments to valuation multiples, even as they highlight solid execution, long-term contracts such as the Meta PPAs, and continued interest in gas-related opportunities. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra shows a mix of confidence in the business model and caution around valuation, sector conditions, and deal risks.VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Anchor PJM Power Demand
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Vistra is unchanged at $293, as analysts balance modest tweaks to growth, margins and P/E assumptions with ongoing support from recent price target revisions across the Street. These revisions include reactions to new long-term Meta contracts, PJM exposure and recent gas generation deals.VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Data Center Demand
Analysts kept their average price target for Vistra around $293, with modest tweaks to assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, reflecting mixed but generally constructive recent research updates on the company and its long term contracts and acquisitions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra has leaned constructive, with several price target adjustments and ratings actions reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to execute on long term contracts, acquisitions, and capital allocation.VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Agreements Will Support PJM Data Center Demand
Analysts have nudged their average price targets on Vistra higher into a range around $217 to $293, citing recent long term nuclear power agreements with Meta, as well as updated expectations for execution and market conditions as key drivers behind the recalibration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Vistra reflects mixed adjustments to price targets, but the tone from several bullish analysts remains constructive.VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Support Data Center Power Demand
Analysts nudged their price target on Vistra up to $293 from $288 as they factor in stronger contracted growth from long term Meta power agreements and updated expectations for revenue, margins and future P/E multiples across the independent power producer group. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are largely framing the latest Vistra moves, including long term power agreements with Meta and recent generation acquisitions, as supportive for the company’s valuation and earnings power within the independent power producer peer group.VST: Data Center Demand Will Drive Long-Term Power Pricing Upside
The analyst price target for Vistra has inched higher to approximately $233 per share from about $231, as analysts factor in a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly stronger margin outlook, and supportive sector research highlighting rising power prices and data-center-driven demand for electric utilities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts remain constructive on Vistra, highlighting that the combination of rising power prices, data center demand, and improving cash flows supports a premium valuation versus historical levels.VST: Data Center Power Demand Will Drive Long-Term Cash Flow Upside
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vistra to $288 from $232 per share. This reflects higher projected revenue growth and profit margins driven by accelerating data center power demand, robust pricing for thermal IPPs, and a series of supportive Overweight and Buy initiations and price target increases across the Street.VST: Long-Term Power Deals And Buybacks Will Drive Strength Ahead
Analysts have moderately increased their price target for Vistra, raising fair value from $228.26 to $230.71 per share. This change reflects expectations for stable earnings growth and sector tailwinds, despite slightly tempered revenue outlooks.VST: Accelerating Power Demand From Data Centers Will Drive Next Phase
Vistra's analyst price target has been raised slightly to approximately $228. Analysts cite robust earnings prospects supported by surging power demand, higher expected growth rates, and industry tailwinds from evolving utility and data center markets.VST: Accelerating Power Demand Will Drive New Nuclear And Gas Asset Expansion
Vistra's analyst fair value price target has been modestly raised from $226.45 to $227.03. Analysts point to factors including improving profit margins, a positive outlook for thermal IPPs due to higher power prices, and robust demand growth driven by data centers and utility asset upgrades.Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Vistra's analyst price target has been raised by nearly $2.53 to $226.45, as analysts cite an improved profit margin outlook and continued sector optimism. This optimism is driven by strong power demand and asset expansion opportunities.Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Vistra's analyst price target has risen by approximately $2 to just under $224, as analysts cite updated EBITDA estimates, new power agreements, and favorable market fundamentals for the upgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra reflects a dynamic mix of optimism and caution among analysts as the company continues to secure long-term power agreements, increase capacity, and benefit from evolving power market fundamentals.Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Upward revisions to Vistra's price target reflect bullish sentiment driven by record PJM capacity prices, growing power demand from AI adoption and data centers, higher expected EBITDA, and regulatory tailwinds, resulting in a new analyst consensus fair value of $221.57. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite record PJM capacity market prices for the 2026-2027 delivery year and a favorable shift in power market dynamics, leading to valuation upside.Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
The consensus analyst price target for Vistra has increased to $207.22, primarily reflecting an improved net profit margin, despite a slight reduction in revenue growth forecasts. What's in the News Vistra completed the repurchase of 1,705,797 shares for $273.13 million, totaling 163,499,236 shares (39.89% of shares outstanding) bought back for $5,350 million under its ongoing buyback program.Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Looks Just Right With A 31% Price Jump
May 13
Vistra: Stay Long, Key Drivers Intact
Feb 28Vistra Stands To Benefit From The Energy State Of Emergency
Feb 11Vistra: DeepSeek Sparks Undue AI Selling (Rating Upgrade)
Jan 27Power Play: Why Vistra Is My Favorite Utility Star
Dec 23Vistra: Too Much Hype Priced In
Nov 22Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Vistra makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 25 | 17,738 | 752 | 1,697 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 17,191 | 960 | 1,743 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 18,508 | 2,196 | 1,709 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 18,103 | 2,234 | 1,665 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 17,224 | 2,467 | 1,601 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 16,265 | 1,852 | 1,488 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 14,064 | 477 | 1,426 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 13,408 | 598 | 1,353 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 14,779 | 1,343 | 1,308 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 15,570 | 1,281 | 1,227 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 16,629 | 1,448 | 1,204 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 15,028 | -393 | 1,183 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 13,728 | -1,377 | 1,189 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 13,173 | -388 | 1,171 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 11,018 | -1,014 | 1,115 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 11,995 | 425 | 1,085 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 12,077 | -1,295 | 1,048 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 11,287 | -2,029 | 1,056 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 11,848 | -1,592 | 1,054 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 11,792 | -1,463 | 1,039 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 11,443 | 636 | 1,040 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 11,779 | 899 | 989 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 11,421 | 569 | 970 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 11,744 | 759 | 944 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 11,809 | 928 | 907 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 11,512 | 508 | 855 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 11,561 | 725 | 804 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 11,302 | 477 | 946 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 9,144 | -54 | 929 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 7,524 | -447 | 877 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 6,115 | -504 | 829 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 4,838 | -638 | 627 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 5,430 | -254 | 600 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 5,678 | 818 | 642 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 5,534 | 731 | 657 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 5,472 | 258 | 663 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 5,164 | -163 | 690 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 5,078 | -2,266 | 663 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 5,126 | -3,969 | 673 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 5,147 | -3,684 | 677 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 5,370 | -4,677 | 676 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 5,512 | -8,134 | 730 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 5,581 | -6,653 | 587 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: VST has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: VST's current net profit margins (4.2%) are lower than last year (14.3%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: VST has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 53.6% per year.
Accelerating Growth: VST's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: VST had negative earnings growth (-69.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Renewable Energy industry average (0.1%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: VST's Return on Equity (18.5%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/06 04:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Vistra Corp. is covered by 28 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| James Thalacker | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Moses Sutton | BNP Paribas |
| Ross Fowler | BofA Global Research |