| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 1/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
VST Stock Overview
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the electricity business in the United States.
Vistra Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$21.72 |
| 52 Week High | US$24.20 |
| 52 Week Low | US$15.47 |
| Beta | 0.98 |
| 1 Month Change | -1.41% |
| 3 Month Change | 13.66% |
| 1 Year Change | 1.78% |
| 3 Year Change | -11.89% |
| 5 Year Change | 29.83% |
| Change since IPO | 35.75% |
Recent News & Updates
Vistra: Turning A Threat Into An Opportunity
Last year, the State of Texas got hit with what is now known as the "2021 Texas power crisis." Vistra Corp. has played a major role in this crisis. The company has managed to turn what seemed like a great threat back in February 2021 into what looks like a great opportunity (even as late as) in January 2022. We jumped on the VST cart early and cheaply, but we believe there's still a lot of fuel in this utility's tank, surely more than the sector and/or peers offer. Unlike the Utilities sector which isn't much of an interest for us right now, we believe that Vistra is a solid investment with limited downside risk and at least 3x as much upside potential.
Vistra (NYSE:VST) Has Debt But No Earnings; Should You Worry?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Vistra Stock: Financial Engineering Or Sound Management?
Vistra Energy was on the path to be one of the great story stocks coming out of the pandemic. While the coronavirus had basically zero impact on earnings, the Texas Winter Storms cost the firm billions. Much of that was due to factors outside company's control. An 8.0% Preferred to buy back stock preserves a path to investment-grade credit and lets management aggressively buy back shares before the market comes around to 2022/2023 earnings health. Per share metrics do not factor into the largest bucket of executive compensation. Management has been out buying the stock in the open market.
Vistra Corp. Starts Emerging From Deep Freeze
Vistra is a $9.2 billion company, an independent power producer generating and selling electricity in Texas and other areas of the country. Over 60% of its generation is natural-gas fueled. The company was on the front lines of providing power in Texas during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 and continues to recover from the large emergency costs it incurred. Vistra plans to retire eight coal plants with a capacity of 7,300 megawatts in the next six years and add more renewable capacity.
Vistra Corp.: Potential High Returns Tempered By Risk
Vistra came out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2016, and following the Uri storm event the company has suffered another significant setback. Performance since exiting bankruptcy has been sound through end of 2020, with share repurchases and dividends adequately covered by operating earnings. There had been significant reduction in net debt from 2018 through end of 2020, but that all reversed with Uri, and net debt is now above 2018 level. While there remains the risk of further catastrophic events, the losses suffered by Vistra were more to do with regulatory failures than the Uri storm itself. Regulatory changes may significantly de-risk future storm events for Vistra, changing the outlook from High Reward:High Risk to High Reward:Moderate risk, and a Buy.
Shareholder Returns
| VST | US Renewable Energy | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -3.9% | -3.7% | -6.1% |
| 1Y | 1.8% | -20.6% | 4.2% |
Return vs Industry: VST exceeded the US Renewable Energy industry which returned -20.6% over the past year.
Return vs Market: VST underperformed the US Market which returned 4.2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| VST volatility | |
|---|---|
| VST Average Weekly Movement | 4.0% |
| Renewable Energy Industry Average Movement | 7.7% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.7% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.5% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.4% |
Stable Share Price: VST is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.
Volatility Over Time: VST's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1882 | 5,365 | Curt Morgan | https://www.vistracorp.com |
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the electricity business in the United States. It operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
Vistra Fundamentals Summary
| VST fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$10.48b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$2.03b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$11.29b |
0.9x
P/S Ratio-5.2x
P/E RatioIs VST overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| VST income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$11.29b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$10.72b |
| Gross Profit | US$572.00m |
| Expenses | US$2.60b |
| Earnings | -US$2.03b |
Last Reported Earnings
Sep 30, 2021
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -4.20 |
| Gross Margin | 5.07% |
| Net Profit Margin | -17.98% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 192.8% |
How did VST perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
2.8%
Current Dividend Yield-14%
Payout RatioValuation
Is Vistra undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
>50%
Undervalued compared to fair value
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: VST ($21.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($100.17)
Significantly Below Fair Value: VST is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Price To Earnings Ratio
PE vs Industry: VST is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Renewable Energy industry average.
PE vs Market: VST is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate VST's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.
Price to Book Ratio
PB vs Industry: VST is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.7x) compared to the US Renewable Energy industry average (2.2x).
Future Growth
How is Vistra forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?
90.2%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: VST is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2%).
Earnings vs Market: VST is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: VST's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: VST's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-13.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: VST's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-13.7% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: VST's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.6%).
Past Performance
How has Vistra performed over the past 5 years?
-5.1%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: VST is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: VST is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: VST is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 5.1% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare VST's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: VST is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Renewable Energy industry (-10.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: VST has a negative Return on Equity (-33.51%), as it is currently unprofitable.
Financial Health
How is Vistra's financial position?
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: VST's short term assets ($7.8B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($7.9B).
Long Term Liabilities: VST's short term assets ($7.8B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($16.0B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: VST's net debt to equity ratio (186.7%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: VST had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.
Balance Sheet
Cash Runway Analysis
For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.
Stable Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if VST has enough cash runway based on its current free cash flow.
Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if VST has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.
Dividend
What is Vistra current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
2.76%
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: VST's dividend (2.76%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.37%).
High Dividend: VST's dividend (2.76%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.61%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, VST has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.
Growing Dividend: VST's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 3 years.
Current Payout to Shareholders
Dividend Coverage: VST is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.
Future Payout to Shareholders
Future Dividend Coverage: VST's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (34% payout ratio).
Next Steps
Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
5.3yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Curt Morgan (60 yo)
5.25yrs
Tenure
US$10,875,562
Compensation
Mr. Curtis A. Morgan, also known as Curt, CPA, has been Chief Executive Officer and Director of Vistra Corp. (formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp.) since October 3, 2016. Mr. Morgan had been President at...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Curt's total compensation ($USD10.88M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD11.47M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Curt's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: VST's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.3 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: VST's board of directors are considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Vistra Corp.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Vistra Corp.
- Ticker: VST
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 1882
- Industry: Independent Power Producers and Energy Traders
- Sector: Utilities
- Implied Market Cap: US$10.483b
- Shares outstanding: 482.63m
- Website: https://www.vistracorp.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Vistra Corp.
- 6555 Sierra Drive
- Irving
- Texas
- 75039
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/01/22 23:37 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/01/21 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2021/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2020/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.