Vistra (VST) Stock Overview
Operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 2/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
VST Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
Vistra Corp. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$143.56 |
| 52 Week High | US$219.82 |
| 52 Week Low | US$132.66 |
| Beta | 1.41 |
| 1 Month Change | 2.16% |
| 3 Month Change | -12.33% |
| 1 Year Change | -31.69% |
| 3 Year Change | 329.18% |
| 5 Year Change | 715.22% |
| Change since IPO | 797.25% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Sep 17
VST: AI Power Demand And Fleet Expansion Will Drive Long-Term Earnings Power
Vistra's analyst price target is updated to $217.42. Analysts point to slightly lower modeled revenue growth, a higher profit margin outlook, ongoing support from data center driven power demand, and recent fleet expansion.Seeking Alpha • Sep 17
Vistra: Q2 2026 Confirmed The AI Power Scarcity Problem
Summary I maintain my Strong Buy rating and $220 price target on Vistra Corp., with Q2 2026 results strengthening my conviction. VST’s diversified generation assets and integration in PJM/ERCOT position it to capitalize on AI-driven electricity scarcity and accelerating data center demand. Helix digital infrastructure offers new upside optionality, but I await signed contracts before factoring material value into my valuation. Strong capital allocation, robust fleet performance, and major customer contracts (META, AWS) support visible EBITDA growth and further re-rating potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRecent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 17
VST: AI Power Demand And Fleet Expansion Will Drive Long-Term Earnings Power
Vistra's analyst price target is updated to $217.42. Analysts point to slightly lower modeled revenue growth, a higher profit margin outlook, ongoing support from data center driven power demand, and recent fleet expansion.Seeking Alpha • Sep 17
Vistra: Q2 2026 Confirmed The AI Power Scarcity Problem
Summary I maintain my Strong Buy rating and $220 price target on Vistra Corp., with Q2 2026 results strengthening my conviction. VST’s diversified generation assets and integration in PJM/ERCOT position it to capitalize on AI-driven electricity scarcity and accelerating data center demand. Helix digital infrastructure offers new upside optionality, but I await signed contracts before factoring material value into my valuation. Strong capital allocation, robust fleet performance, and major customer contracts (META, AWS) support visible EBITDA growth and further re-rating potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 03
VST: Election Policy And ERCOT Review Will Restrain Data Center Upside
Vistra's analyst fair value estimate has been trimmed by about $4 to $130.22 as analysts balance very strong AI and data center driven demand expectations, higher projected revenue growth and profit margins, and updated valuation assumptions that include a slightly higher discount rate and a lower future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research on Vistra in recent months shows a mix of optimism about long term power demand and more cautious adjustments as valuation, policy risk, and project timing are reassessed.
New Narrative • Aug 31
Vistra Fell 38%. Adjusted EBITDA Rose 31%. Here's the $472 Million Reason They Disagree.
Wall Street spent two years discovering that artificial intelligence needs electricity. Then Vistra fell from nearly $220 to $139 anyway.
Narrative Update • Aug 20
VST: AI Data Center Power Deals Will Drive Future Nuclear Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Vistra as fair value estimates eased to about $308 from roughly $314, reflecting slightly higher discount rates, a more cautious profit margin outlook, and ongoing debate around data center related demand and regulatory timing. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a mix of caution and optimism around Vistra, with most Street commentary focusing on data center demand, ERCOT related reviews, and the earnings path over the next few years.
New Narrative • Aug 16
Vistra Energy ($VST): The Flexible Power Platform Capturing AI Load Growth
The market still largely prices Vistra as a volatile merchant generator with a mixed fossil and nuclear fleet. What is underappreciated is how effectively the company has converted its scale and geographic reach into long-duration contracted nuclear cash flows while retaining the flexible gas capacity needed to serve the fastest-growing large loads in ERCOT and PJM.
New Narrative • Aug 07
Vistra's data centers + AI
Teza inwestycyjna: Vistra to jeden z najlepiej ustawionych konkurencyjnych generatorów w USA na wzrost popytu na energię (szczególnie data centers + AI). Posiada solidną skalę, wartościowe aktywa nuklearne, zintegrowany model z retailem oraz atrakcyjniejszą wycenę niż najwyższej jakości peer (Constellation).Narrative Update • Aug 05
VST: Data Center Power Demand Will Test PJM Capacity And Earnings Balance
Analysts lifted the fair value estimate for Vistra from $130.74 to $134.15, reflecting updated price targets that factor in views on the Helix data center partnership, long term contract visibility, power demand linked to AI, and recent adjustments across North American utilities coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra points to a mixed tone, with some firms lifting price targets and others trimming them.New Narrative • Jul 24
US Energy Giant: PowerHouse Of The Future Of AI
Vistra Corp is on a discount. AMZN, META, Quantom Capital group, and many more.Narrative Update • Jul 16
VST: Data Center Power Hype Will Overstretch PJM Capacity And Gas Fleet Earnings
Vistra's updated analyst price target has been adjusted slightly lower to $130.74 from $133.54 as analysts factor in modestly slower expected revenue growth, alongside a slightly higher projected profit margin and a lower forward P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra points to a mix of optimism about long term power demand and more cautious recalibration of fair value.Narrative Update • Jun 24
VST: AI Data Center Power Deals Will Support Nuclear And Gas Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Vistra, with the consensus fair value easing from about $318 to roughly $314. This reflects slightly higher discount rate assumptions and more moderate revenue growth and margin expectations in recent research updates.Narrative Update • Jun 09
VST: Long-Term AI Data Center Contracts Will Reshape Future Power Pricing
Vistra's updated analyst price target moves to $225.29. This reflects analysts' use of slightly lower fair value, revenue growth, profit margin, and P/E assumptions, while keeping the discount rate broadly in line.Narrative Update • May 26
VST: Data Center Power Hype Will Pressure PJM And Gas Deal Execution
Analysts trimmed the updated fair value estimate for Vistra by about $11.80 to $133.54, reflecting a mix of recent price target cuts along with select upward revisions and a slight adjustment to valuation inputs such as revenue growth, profit margin and forward P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra shows a mix of price target increases and cuts, with several firms adjusting their numbers in quick succession.Narrative Update • Apr 27
VST: Data Center Power Hype Will Pressure Meta Nuclear And Gas Deal Risks
Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Vistra by about $3 to $145.33. This reflects slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, while still largely reaffirming their broader positive research stance on the stock.Narrative Update • Apr 13
VST: Long Term Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Demand And Undervalued Upside
Analysts have updated their view on Vistra with a higher fair value estimate, moving from $293.00 to $318.00. They cite recent mixed but generally supportive price target adjustments and ongoing confidence in the company story across several research firms.Narrative Update • Mar 30
VST: Long-Term Data Center Nuclear Contracts Will Shape Future Power Pricing
Analysts have made a modest upward adjustment to the Vistra price target to about $234 from about $233, reflecting fine tuned expectations around revenue growth, margin assumptions, and future P/E multiples following recent research updates that highlight both positive contract wins and more cautious views on gas exposure and sector valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra reflects a mix of enthusiasm around new long term contracts and growth projects, alongside more careful adjustments to gas exposure and valuation multiples.Narrative Update • Mar 16
VST: Meta Nuclear Deals And Gas Acquisition Will Reshape Future Risk Profile
Vistra's analyst price target has been revised lower by about $20.94, with analysts citing updated sector-wide assumptions, tempered revenue growth outlooks, and adjustments to valuation multiples, even as they highlight solid execution, long-term contracts such as the Meta PPAs, and continued interest in gas-related opportunities. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra shows a mix of confidence in the business model and caution around valuation, sector conditions, and deal risks.Narrative Update • Mar 02
VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Anchor PJM Power Demand
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Vistra is unchanged at $293, as analysts balance modest tweaks to growth, margins and P/E assumptions with ongoing support from recent price target revisions across the Street. These revisions include reactions to new long-term Meta contracts, PJM exposure and recent gas generation deals.Narrative Update • Feb 16
VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Data Center Demand
Analysts kept their average price target for Vistra around $293, with modest tweaks to assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, reflecting mixed but generally constructive recent research updates on the company and its long term contracts and acquisitions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra has leaned constructive, with several price target adjustments and ratings actions reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to execute on long term contracts, acquisitions, and capital allocation.Narrative Update • Feb 02
VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Agreements Will Support PJM Data Center Demand
Analysts have nudged their average price targets on Vistra higher into a range around $217 to $293, citing recent long term nuclear power agreements with Meta, as well as updated expectations for execution and market conditions as key drivers behind the recalibration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Vistra reflects mixed adjustments to price targets, but the tone from several bullish analysts remains constructive.Narrative Update • Jan 19
VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Support Data Center Power Demand
Analysts nudged their price target on Vistra up to $293 from $288 as they factor in stronger contracted growth from long term Meta power agreements and updated expectations for revenue, margins and future P/E multiples across the independent power producer group. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are largely framing the latest Vistra moves, including long term power agreements with Meta and recent generation acquisitions, as supportive for the company’s valuation and earnings power within the independent power producer peer group.Narrative Update • Jan 04
VST: Data Center Demand Will Drive Long-Term Power Pricing Upside
The analyst price target for Vistra has inched higher to approximately $233 per share from about $231, as analysts factor in a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly stronger margin outlook, and supportive sector research highlighting rising power prices and data-center-driven demand for electric utilities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts remain constructive on Vistra, highlighting that the combination of rising power prices, data center demand, and improving cash flows supports a premium valuation versus historical levels.Narrative Update • Dec 15
VST: Data Center Power Demand Will Drive Long-Term Cash Flow Upside
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vistra to $288 from $232 per share. This reflects higher projected revenue growth and profit margins driven by accelerating data center power demand, robust pricing for thermal IPPs, and a series of supportive Overweight and Buy initiations and price target increases across the Street.Narrative Update • Dec 01
VST: Long-Term Power Deals And Buybacks Will Drive Strength Ahead
Analysts have moderately increased their price target for Vistra, raising fair value from $228.26 to $230.71 per share. This change reflects expectations for stable earnings growth and sector tailwinds, despite slightly tempered revenue outlooks.Narrative Update • Nov 17
VST: Accelerating Power Demand From Data Centers Will Drive Next Phase
Vistra's analyst price target has been raised slightly to approximately $228. Analysts cite robust earnings prospects supported by surging power demand, higher expected growth rates, and industry tailwinds from evolving utility and data center markets.Narrative Update • Nov 02
VST: Accelerating Power Demand Will Drive New Nuclear And Gas Asset Expansion
Vistra's analyst fair value price target has been modestly raised from $226.45 to $227.03. Analysts point to factors including improving profit margins, a positive outlook for thermal IPPs due to higher power prices, and robust demand growth driven by data centers and utility asset upgrades.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Vistra's analyst price target has been raised by nearly $2.53 to $226.45, as analysts cite an improved profit margin outlook and continued sector optimism. This optimism is driven by strong power demand and asset expansion opportunities.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Vistra's analyst price target has risen by approximately $2 to just under $224, as analysts cite updated EBITDA estimates, new power agreements, and favorable market fundamentals for the upgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra reflects a dynamic mix of optimism and caution among analysts as the company continues to secure long-term power agreements, increase capacity, and benefit from evolving power market fundamentals.Narrative Update • Sep 18
Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Upward revisions to Vistra's price target reflect bullish sentiment driven by record PJM capacity prices, growing power demand from AI adoption and data centers, higher expected EBITDA, and regulatory tailwinds, resulting in a new analyst consensus fair value of $221.57. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite record PJM capacity market prices for the 2026-2027 delivery year and a favorable shift in power market dynamics, leading to valuation upside.Narrative Update • Aug 08
Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
The consensus analyst price target for Vistra has increased to $207.22, primarily reflecting an improved net profit margin, despite a slight reduction in revenue growth forecasts. What's in the News Vistra completed the repurchase of 1,705,797 shares for $273.13 million, totaling 163,499,236 shares (39.89% of shares outstanding) bought back for $5,350 million under its ongoing buyback program.Shareholder Returns
| VST | US Renewable Energy | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -2.4% | -2.0% | 0.5% |
| 1Y | -31.7% | -21.9% | 12.0% |
Return vs Industry: VST underperformed the US Renewable Energy industry which returned -21.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: VST underperformed the US Market which returned 12% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| VST volatility | |
|---|---|
| VST Average Weekly Movement | 5.9% |
| Renewable Energy Industry Average Movement | 7.9% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.8% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: VST has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: VST's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1882 | 6,390 | Jim Burke | vistracorp.com |
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
Vistra Corp. Fundamentals Summary
| VST fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$47.12b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$2.03b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$19.21b |
23.8x
P/E Ratio2.5x
P/S RatioIs VST overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| VST income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$19.21b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$11.85b |
| Gross Profit | US$7.36b |
| Other Expenses | US$5.33b |
| Earnings | US$2.03b |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 6.04 |
| Gross Margin | 38.31% |
| Net Profit Margin | 10.55% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 373.3% |
How did VST perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.6%
Current Dividend Yield15%
Payout RatioDoes VST pay a reliable dividends?
See VST dividend history and benchmarks| Vistra dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Sep 21 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Sep 30 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 2 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 11 days |
Does VST pay a reliable dividends?
See VST dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/17 13:29 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/17 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Vistra Corp. is covered by 31 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Sunaina Ocalan | Bernstein |
| James Thalacker | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Moses Sutton | BNP Paribas |