Vistra Corp.

NYSE:VST Stock Report

Market Cap: US$65.8b

Vistra (VST) Stock Overview

Operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. More details

VST fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance5/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends0/6

Rewards

Trading at 60.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 12.22% per year

Earnings grew by 273.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months


VST Community Fair Values

Create Narrative

See what 244 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

VST logo
Vistra
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts

AI And Data Centers Will Expand Renewable Energy Capacity

Key Takeaways Vistra's zero-carbon energy projects position the company for expanded capacity and reduced costs, potentially boosting net margins. Strong capital return plans via share repurchases and dividends aim to enhance earnings per share growth.
View narrative
US$170.29
FV
8.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
9.08%
Revenue growth p.a.
4users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
123users have followed this narrative
6 days ago author updated this narrative
VST logo
Vistra
AN
AnalystHighTarget
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts

ERCOT And PJM Will Benefit From Electrification And Renewables

Key Takeaways Rising demand from AI and data centers, along with policy support and renewables buildout, will drive revenue growth, margin expansion, and cash flow diversification. Strong capital discipline, declining renewables costs, and leverage of existing assets are expected to bolster returns, credit quality, and shareholder value.
View narrative
US$232.00
FV
20.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
16.79%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
3users have followed this narrative
13 days ago author updated this narrative
VST logo
Vistra
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts

Rising DER Deployment And Regulatory Risks Will Erode Future Prospects

Key Takeaways Scaling renewables faces significant execution and regulatory risks, threatening growth, margins, and stability if projects are delayed or costs and hurdles increase. Exposure to regional regulation, competitive pressures, and fossil fuel risks could suppress returns, heighten earnings volatility, and constrain future cash generation.
View narrative
US$88.08
FV
110.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
-2.31%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative
6 days ago author updated this narrative
View Vistra Community

Vistra Corp. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Vistra
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$185.10
52 Week HighUS$199.84
52 Week LowUS$66.50
Beta1.25
1 Month Change15.28%
3 Month Change45.53%
1 Year Change111.06%
3 Year Change754.57%
5 Year Change875.24%
Change since IPO1,056.88%

Recent News & Updates

The Nuclear Option: Vistra Charges Ahead With A Big Bet On AI

Jun 06

Recent updates

The Nuclear Option: Vistra Charges Ahead With A Big Bet On AI

Jun 06

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Looks Just Right With A 31% Price Jump

May 13
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Looks Just Right With A 31% Price Jump

It's Down 35% But Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Mar 11
It's Down 35% But Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Vistra: Stay Long, Key Drivers Intact

Feb 28

Vistra Stands To Benefit From The Energy State Of Emergency

Feb 11

Vistra: DeepSeek Sparks Undue AI Selling (Rating Upgrade)

Jan 27

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) 32% Share Price Surge

Jan 22
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) 32% Share Price Surge

Here's Why We Think Vistra (NYSE:VST) Is Well Worth Watching

Dec 28
Here's Why We Think Vistra (NYSE:VST) Is Well Worth Watching

Power Play: Why Vistra Is My Favorite Utility Star

Dec 23

Vistra: Too Much Hype Priced In

Nov 22

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Looks Just Right With A 33% Price Jump

Nov 22
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Looks Just Right With A 33% Price Jump

What Is Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) Share Price Doing?

Nov 15
What Is Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) Share Price Doing?

Vistra: The Nuclear Hype Is Getting Out Of Hand (Rating Downgrade)

Oct 23

Nuclear News - Vistra, Constellation Energy, Denison Mines

Oct 09

Broken Equilibrium: How Vistra Is Growing Like A Startup

Oct 01

Are Investors Undervaluing Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) By 42%?

Oct 01
Are Investors Undervaluing Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) By 42%?

Vistra Energy Goes Nuclear

Sep 23

Cheap Vistra Stock Is Poised To Exploit Multiple, Strong Trends

Sep 17

What You Can Learn From Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) P/E

Sep 10
What You Can Learn From Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) P/E

Vistra Corp.: Essential Holding For Your Growth Portfolio

Aug 14

Vistra Corp: Mismatch Of Demand, Supply Promises Bright Future

Jul 14

What Is Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) Share Price Doing?

Jul 13
What Is Vistra Corp.'s (NYSE:VST) Share Price Doing?

Vistra: This Sector Outperformer Looks Undervalued At This Price

Jun 13

Third Point - Vistra: In A Pole Position To Capitalize On Trends

May 02

Vistra Adds Vital Nuclear Power Capacity

Apr 22

Shareholder Returns

VSTUS Renewable EnergyUS Market
7D-0.6%2.7%2.9%
1Y111.1%53.7%13.9%

Return vs Industry: VST exceeded the US Renewable Energy industry which returned 53.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: VST exceeded the US Market which returned 13.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is VST's price volatile compared to industry and market?
VST volatility
VST Average Weekly Movement9.6%
Renewable Energy Industry Average Movement8.4%
Market Average Movement7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market4.0%

Stable Share Price: VST has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.

Volatility Over Time: VST's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
18826,850Jim Burkevistracorp.com

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.

Vistra Corp. Fundamentals Summary

How do Vistra's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
VST fundamental statistics
Market capUS$65.77b
Earnings (TTM)US$2.23b
Revenue (TTM)US$18.10b
28.1x
P/E Ratio
3.5x
P/S Ratio

Is VST overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
VST income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$18.10b
Cost of RevenueUS$10.63b
Gross ProfitUS$7.48b
Other ExpensesUS$5.24b
EarningsUS$2.23b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2025

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)6.58
Gross Margin41.31%
Net Profit Margin12.34%
Debt/Equity Ratio360.0%

How did VST perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.5%
Current Dividend Yield
14%
Payout Ratio

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/07/01 21:45
End of Day Share Price 2025/07/01 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Vistra Corp. is covered by 28 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
James ThalackerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Moses SuttonBNP Paribas Exane
Ross FowlerBofA Global Research