NYSE:VST

Stock Analysis Report

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Executive Summary

Vistra Corp., through its subsidiaries, engages in the electricity business in the United States. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Undervalued with adequate balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Vistra's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: VST is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: VST's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-3.1%

VST

-1.1%

US Renewable Energy

2.6%

US Market


1 Year Return

-3.7%

VST

41.1%

US Renewable Energy

26.0%

US Market

Return vs Industry: VST underperformed the US Renewable Energy industry which returned 41.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: VST underperformed the US Market which returned 26% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

VSTIndustryMarket
7 Day-3.1%-1.1%2.6%
30 Day11.4%14.1%5.1%
90 Day13.1%33.2%17.1%
1 Year-0.8%-3.7%45.6%41.1%28.9%26.0%
3 Year12.1%6.6%79.9%65.1%46.3%36.6%
5 Yearn/a235.2%177.7%126.9%101.6%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Vistra's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Vistra undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: VST ($20.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($87.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VST is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: VST is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.5x) compared to the US Renewable Energy industry average (51.7x).

PE vs Market: VST is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.5x) compared to the US market (21.3x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: VST's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: VST is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.2x) compared to the US Renewable Energy industry average (3.8x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Vistra forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

-5.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VST's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-5.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: VST's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-5.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: VST's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: VST's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-9.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VST's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-9.6% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VST's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.2%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Vistra performed over the past 5 years?

77.8%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: VST has a large one-off loss of $414.0M impacting its September 30 2020 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: VST's current net profit margins (7.6%) are higher than last year (4.5%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: VST has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 77.8% per year.

Accelerating Growth: VST's earnings growth over the past year (75.4%) is below its 5-year average (77.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: VST earnings growth over the past year (75.4%) exceeded the Renewable Energy industry -17.4%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: VST's Return on Equity (10.5%) is considered low.


Next Steps

  • Explore strong past performing companies in the Utilities industry.

Financial Health

How is Vistra's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: VST's short term assets ($3.8B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: VST's short term assets ($3.8B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($13.7B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: VST's debt to equity ratio (123.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: VST had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: VST's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (31.3%).

Interest Coverage: VST's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.4x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Vistra current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.59%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: VST's dividend (2.59%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.38%).

High Dividend: VST's dividend (2.59%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.85%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, VST has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: VST's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 2 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (29.2%), VST's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: VST's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (43.5% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Curt Morgan (59 yo)

4.25yrs

Tenure

US$9,692,169

Compensation

Mr. Curtis A. Morgan, also known as Curt, CPA, has been Chief Executive Officer and Director of Vistra Corp. (formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp.) since October 3, 2016. Mr. Morgan had been President at ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Curt's total compensation ($USD9.69M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD10.56M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Curt's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Curtis Morgan
CEO & Director4.25yrsUS$9.69m0.088%
$ 9.2m
James Burke
President & CFO0.083yrUS$4.78m0.041%
$ 4.3m
Stephen Muscato
Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer4.25yrsUS$3.41m0.018%
$ 1.8m
Scott Hudson
President of Retail4.25yrsUS$2.72m0.014%
$ 1.5m
Tom Farrah
Senior VP & Chief Information Officer0.50yrno datano data
Carrie Kirby
Executive VP & Chief Administrative Officer4.25yrsUS$2.23m0.014%
$ 1.4m
Molly Sorg
Director of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Stephanie Moore
Executive VP4.25yrsno data0.013%
$ 1.3m
Sano Blocker
Senior Vice President of Government Affairsno datano datano data
Mathew Parker
Senior VP & Chief Risk Officerno datano datano data
Anthony Horton
Senior Vice President and Corporate Treasurerno datano datano data
Elizabeth Dobry
VP & Controller3yrsno data0.0032%
$ 336.1k

4.3yrs

Average Tenure

52yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: VST's management team is considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Curtis Morgan
CEO & Director4.25yrsUS$9.69m0.088%
$ 9.2m
Paul Barbas
Independent Director2.75yrsUS$265.91k0.011%
$ 1.2m
Scott Helm
Independent Chairman of the Board3.25yrsUS$420.00k0.043%
$ 4.5m
Brian Ferraioli
Independent Director3.67yrsUS$280.00k0.0071%
$ 744.2k
John Sult
Independent Director2.75yrsUS$270.00k0.012%
$ 1.3m
Lisa Crutchfield
Independent Director0.92yrno data0.0016%
$ 163.9k
Jeff Hunter
Independent Director4.25yrsUS$265.91k0.0086%
$ 899.8k
Arcilia Acosta
Independent Director0.92yrno data0.0043%
$ 447.8k
Gavin Baiera
Independent Director4.25yrsUS$275.00k0.0051%
$ 534.4k
Hilary Ackermann
Independent Director2.75yrsUS$275.00k0.0086%
$ 901.9k

3.0yrs

Average Tenure

57.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: VST's board of directors are considered experienced (3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: VST insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Vistra Corp.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Vistra Corp.
  • Ticker: VST
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1882
  • Industry: Independent Power Producers and Energy Traders
  • Sector: Utilities
  • Market Cap: US$10.438b
  • Shares outstanding: 489.13m
  • Website: https://www.vistracorp.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Vistra Corp.
  • 6555 Sierra Drive
  • Irving
  • Texas
  • 75039
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
VSTNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDSep 2016
0V6DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURSep 2016
VST *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon StockMXMXNSep 2016

Biography

Vistra Corp., through its subsidiaries, engages in the electricity business in the United States. It operates through Retail, ERCOT, PJM, NY/NE, MISO, and Asset Closure segments. The company retails electr...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/01/25 23:16
End of Day Share Price2021/01/25 00:00
Earnings2020/09/30
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.