Vistra (VST) Stock Overview
Operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 4/6 |
| Past Performance | 2/6 |
| Financial Health | 1/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
VST Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Vistra Corp. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$158.29 |
| 52 Week High | US$219.82 |
| 52 Week Low | US$133.73 |
| Beta | 1.45 |
| 1 Month Change | 4.42% |
| 3 Month Change | 10.64% |
| 1 Year Change | 13.47% |
| 3 Year Change | 527.64% |
| 5 Year Change | 889.31% |
| Change since IPO | 889.31% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Apr 27
VST: Data Center Power Hype Will Pressure Meta Nuclear And Gas Deal Risks
Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Vistra by about $3 to $145.33. This reflects slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, while still largely reaffirming their broader positive research stance on the stock.
Narrative Update • Apr 13
VST: Long Term Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Demand And Undervalued Upside
Analysts have updated their view on Vistra with a higher fair value estimate, moving from $293.00 to $318.00. They cite recent mixed but generally supportive price target adjustments and ongoing confidence in the company story across several research firms.Seeking Alpha • Apr 06
Vistra: Still Not Buying The Dip Here
Summary Vistra faces a demanding valuation, with shares now trading near $150 after a sharp pullback from last summer’s peak. Despite solid growth and major PPAs with Meta and Amazon, Vistra's earnings multiples are stretched, with a notable gap between EBITDA and net income. Net debt is rising rapidly, set to exceed $20 billion post-Cogentrix acquisition, but leverage remains manageable at around 3x EBITDA. Political and customer concentration risks loom as energy costs rise and large data center clients increasingly pursue self-generation strategies. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRecent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 27
VST: Data Center Power Hype Will Pressure Meta Nuclear And Gas Deal Risks
Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Vistra by about $3 to $145.33. This reflects slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, while still largely reaffirming their broader positive research stance on the stock.Narrative Update • Apr 13
VST: Long Term Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Demand And Undervalued Upside
Analysts have updated their view on Vistra with a higher fair value estimate, moving from $293.00 to $318.00. They cite recent mixed but generally supportive price target adjustments and ongoing confidence in the company story across several research firms.Seeking Alpha • Apr 06
Vistra: Still Not Buying The Dip Here
Summary Vistra faces a demanding valuation, with shares now trading near $150 after a sharp pullback from last summer’s peak. Despite solid growth and major PPAs with Meta and Amazon, Vistra's earnings multiples are stretched, with a notable gap between EBITDA and net income. Net debt is rising rapidly, set to exceed $20 billion post-Cogentrix acquisition, but leverage remains manageable at around 3x EBITDA. Political and customer concentration risks loom as energy costs rise and large data center clients increasingly pursue self-generation strategies. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 30
VST: Long-Term Data Center Nuclear Contracts Will Shape Future Power Pricing
Analysts have made a modest upward adjustment to the Vistra price target to about $234 from about $233, reflecting fine tuned expectations around revenue growth, margin assumptions, and future P/E multiples following recent research updates that highlight both positive contract wins and more cautious views on gas exposure and sector valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra reflects a mix of enthusiasm around new long term contracts and growth projects, alongside more careful adjustments to gas exposure and valuation multiples.Narrative Update • Mar 16
VST: Meta Nuclear Deals And Gas Acquisition Will Reshape Future Risk Profile
Vistra's analyst price target has been revised lower by about $20.94, with analysts citing updated sector-wide assumptions, tempered revenue growth outlooks, and adjustments to valuation multiples, even as they highlight solid execution, long-term contracts such as the Meta PPAs, and continued interest in gas-related opportunities. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra shows a mix of confidence in the business model and caution around valuation, sector conditions, and deal risks.Narrative Update • Mar 02
VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Anchor PJM Power Demand
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Vistra is unchanged at $293, as analysts balance modest tweaks to growth, margins and P/E assumptions with ongoing support from recent price target revisions across the Street. These revisions include reactions to new long-term Meta contracts, PJM exposure and recent gas generation deals.Narrative Update • Feb 16
VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Data Center Demand
Analysts kept their average price target for Vistra around $293, with modest tweaks to assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, reflecting mixed but generally constructive recent research updates on the company and its long term contracts and acquisitions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra has leaned constructive, with several price target adjustments and ratings actions reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to execute on long term contracts, acquisitions, and capital allocation.Narrative Update • Feb 02
VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Agreements Will Support PJM Data Center Demand
Analysts have nudged their average price targets on Vistra higher into a range around $217 to $293, citing recent long term nuclear power agreements with Meta, as well as updated expectations for execution and market conditions as key drivers behind the recalibration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Vistra reflects mixed adjustments to price targets, but the tone from several bullish analysts remains constructive.Narrative Update • Jan 19
VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Support Data Center Power Demand
Analysts nudged their price target on Vistra up to $293 from $288 as they factor in stronger contracted growth from long term Meta power agreements and updated expectations for revenue, margins and future P/E multiples across the independent power producer group. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are largely framing the latest Vistra moves, including long term power agreements with Meta and recent generation acquisitions, as supportive for the company’s valuation and earnings power within the independent power producer peer group.Narrative Update • Jan 04
VST: Data Center Demand Will Drive Long-Term Power Pricing Upside
The analyst price target for Vistra has inched higher to approximately $233 per share from about $231, as analysts factor in a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly stronger margin outlook, and supportive sector research highlighting rising power prices and data-center-driven demand for electric utilities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts remain constructive on Vistra, highlighting that the combination of rising power prices, data center demand, and improving cash flows supports a premium valuation versus historical levels.Narrative Update • Dec 15
VST: Data Center Power Demand Will Drive Long-Term Cash Flow Upside
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vistra to $288 from $232 per share. This reflects higher projected revenue growth and profit margins driven by accelerating data center power demand, robust pricing for thermal IPPs, and a series of supportive Overweight and Buy initiations and price target increases across the Street.Narrative Update • Dec 01
VST: Long-Term Power Deals And Buybacks Will Drive Strength Ahead
Analysts have moderately increased their price target for Vistra, raising fair value from $228.26 to $230.71 per share. This change reflects expectations for stable earnings growth and sector tailwinds, despite slightly tempered revenue outlooks.Narrative Update • Nov 17
VST: Accelerating Power Demand From Data Centers Will Drive Next Phase
Vistra's analyst price target has been raised slightly to approximately $228. Analysts cite robust earnings prospects supported by surging power demand, higher expected growth rates, and industry tailwinds from evolving utility and data center markets.Narrative Update • Nov 02
VST: Accelerating Power Demand Will Drive New Nuclear And Gas Asset Expansion
Vistra's analyst fair value price target has been modestly raised from $226.45 to $227.03. Analysts point to factors including improving profit margins, a positive outlook for thermal IPPs due to higher power prices, and robust demand growth driven by data centers and utility asset upgrades.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Vistra's analyst price target has been raised by nearly $2.53 to $226.45, as analysts cite an improved profit margin outlook and continued sector optimism. This optimism is driven by strong power demand and asset expansion opportunities.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Vistra's analyst price target has risen by approximately $2 to just under $224, as analysts cite updated EBITDA estimates, new power agreements, and favorable market fundamentals for the upgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra reflects a dynamic mix of optimism and caution among analysts as the company continues to secure long-term power agreements, increase capacity, and benefit from evolving power market fundamentals.Narrative Update • Sep 18
Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
Upward revisions to Vistra's price target reflect bullish sentiment driven by record PJM capacity prices, growing power demand from AI adoption and data centers, higher expected EBITDA, and regulatory tailwinds, resulting in a new analyst consensus fair value of $221.57. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite record PJM capacity market prices for the 2026-2027 delivery year and a favorable shift in power market dynamics, leading to valuation upside.Narrative Update • Aug 08
Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility
The consensus analyst price target for Vistra has increased to $207.22, primarily reflecting an improved net profit margin, despite a slight reduction in revenue growth forecasts. What's in the News Vistra completed the repurchase of 1,705,797 shares for $273.13 million, totaling 163,499,236 shares (39.89% of shares outstanding) bought back for $5,350 million under its ongoing buyback program.Analysis Article • May 13
Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) Looks Just Right With A 31% Price Jump
Those holding Vistra Corp. ( NYSE:VST ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 31% in the last...Seeking Alpha • Feb 28
Vistra: Stay Long, Key Drivers Intact
Summary Vistra has sold off on fears that the AI/Data Center demand may evaporate, which is one of three demand drivers. VST's 2026 "guidance" may be a communication error; potential high-impact events in 2025 could materially change the outlook. Valuation points to a US$175 YE25 price target at 13x P/cash earnings on 10% 3yr growth. Free cash flow of over US$3bn annually can add further upside via share buybacks or M&A. I rate VST a BUY; recent weakness is misplaced, and the stock should benefit from ongoing demand and strategic capacity additions. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 11
Vistra Stands To Benefit From The Energy State Of Emergency
Summary President Trump declared a national energy emergency, expediting energy infrastructure projects to support increased electricity demand from AI, EVs, and electrification. Vistra Corp. is positioned to benefit from the energy crisis. Key growth drivers include AI and EV demand, though challenges like the outdated US electric grid and regulatory uncertainty remain. VST shares surged 293% in the past year, with a further 21% upside potential and a 'Buy' rating. Long-term price target of $204. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 27
Vistra: DeepSeek Sparks Undue AI Selling (Rating Upgrade)
Summary I am upgrading Vistra Corp. to a buy due to improved EPS forecasts and technical support around current levels. Despite a 25%+ drop on January 27, VST shares are up big in the last year, and shares are now a value considering the growth trajectory. Vistra's impressive Q3 results and strong cash flow highlight its robust financial health and growth potential. Key risks include AI competition, regulatory changes, and market volatility. I outline key price levels to watch ahead of earnings as implied volatility spikes. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 23
Power Play: Why Vistra Is My Favorite Utility Star
Summary Vistra's strategic mix of nuclear and coal power, combined with robust free cash flow, drives aggressive share buybacks and shareholder value. AI and data center demand boost power needs in ERCOT and PJM markets, positioning Vistra for significant long-term growth. Despite a low dividend yield, Vistra's disciplined capital allocation and growth trajectory make it a top utility stock pick. Valuation remains attractive with strong EPS growth projections, making Vistra a buyable stock even after its recent rally. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 22
Vistra: Too Much Hype Priced In
Summary Utilities have seen unexpected growth in 2024, driven by new demand sources like Bitcoin mining and AI, with Vistra gaining 332% YTD. Despite the surge, Vistra appears overextended with negative divergences in momentum indicators, suggesting caution in chasing the stock at current levels. Vistra's multiple expansion seems unjustified given its core business remains traditional fossil fuel electricity, lacking strong pricing power or controllable growth factors. Valuation concerns persist as Vistra's forward P/E has doubled from its historical average, making it prudent to hold rather than buy at current prices. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| VST | US Renewable Energy | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| 1Y | 13.5% | 27.1% | 31.0% |
Return vs Industry: VST underperformed the US Renewable Energy industry which returned 27.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: VST underperformed the US Market which returned 31% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| VST volatility | |
|---|---|
| VST Average Weekly Movement | 6.6% |
| Renewable Energy Industry Average Movement | 7.1% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: VST has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: VST's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1882 | 6,390 | Jim Burke | vistracorp.com |
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
Vistra Corp. Fundamentals Summary
| VST fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$54.30b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$752.00m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$17.74b |
71.3x
P/E Ratio3.0x
P/S RatioIs VST overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| VST income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$17.74b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$11.84b |
| Gross Profit | US$5.90b |
| Other Expenses | US$5.14b |
| Earnings | US$752.00m |
Last Reported Earnings
Dec 31, 2025
Next Earnings Date
May 07, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 2.22 |
| Gross Margin | 33.24% |
| Net Profit Margin | 4.24% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 393.2% |
How did VST perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.6%
Current Dividend Yield41%
Payout RatioDoes VST pay a reliable dividends?
See VST dividend history and benchmarks| Vistra dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Jun 22 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Jun 30 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 46 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 54 days |
Does VST pay a reliable dividends?
See VST dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/06 04:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Vistra Corp. is covered by 28 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| James Thalacker | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Moses Sutton | BNP Paribas |
| Ross Fowler | BofA Global Research |