Vistra Corp.

NYSE:VST Stock Report

Market Cap: US$47.1b

Vistra Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Vistra is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 13.4% and 6.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 15.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 28.6% in 3 years.

Key information

13.4%

Earnings growth rate

15.77%

EPS growth rate

Renewable Energy earnings growth26.2%
Revenue growth rate6.1%
Future return on equity28.59%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated15 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 07

Vistra: A Strong Start To 2026, Solid EPS Growth Might Be Overlooked

Summary Vistra Corp. delivered a strong Q1 double beat, reaffirming robust FY2026 guidance and maintaining a buy rating despite recent underperformance versus the S&P 500. VST's growth profile is compelling, with 2024 EPS expected to surge over 80% and a normalized PEG ratio at just 0.41, supporting an attractive valuation. Strategic moves, including the Cogentrix acquisition and major tech PPAs, are set to drive nearly 50% of EBITDA from retail and contracted sources. VST stock's technical momentum is neutral, with resistance near $200 and support at $150; a breakout above the 200-day moving average would be a positive signal. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 27

VST: Data Center Power Hype Will Pressure Meta Nuclear And Gas Deal Risks

Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Vistra by about $3 to $145.33. This reflects slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, while still largely reaffirming their broader positive research stance on the stock.
Narrative Update • Apr 13

VST: Long Term Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Demand And Undervalued Upside

Analysts have updated their view on Vistra with a higher fair value estimate, moving from $293.00 to $318.00. They cite recent mixed but generally supportive price target adjustments and ongoing confidence in the company story across several research firms.
Narrative Update • Mar 30

VST: Long-Term Data Center Nuclear Contracts Will Shape Future Power Pricing

Analysts have made a modest upward adjustment to the Vistra price target to about $234 from about $233, reflecting fine tuned expectations around revenue growth, margin assumptions, and future P/E multiples following recent research updates that highlight both positive contract wins and more cautious views on gas exposure and sector valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra reflects a mix of enthusiasm around new long term contracts and growth projects, alongside more careful adjustments to gas exposure and valuation multiples.
Narrative Update • Mar 16

VST: Meta Nuclear Deals And Gas Acquisition Will Reshape Future Risk Profile

Vistra's analyst price target has been revised lower by about $20.94, with analysts citing updated sector-wide assumptions, tempered revenue growth outlooks, and adjustments to valuation multiples, even as they highlight solid execution, long-term contracts such as the Meta PPAs, and continued interest in gas-related opportunities. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra shows a mix of confidence in the business model and caution around valuation, sector conditions, and deal risks.
Narrative Update • Mar 02

VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Anchor PJM Power Demand

Narrative Update The analyst price target for Vistra is unchanged at $293, as analysts balance modest tweaks to growth, margins and P/E assumptions with ongoing support from recent price target revisions across the Street. These revisions include reactions to new long-term Meta contracts, PJM exposure and recent gas generation deals.
Narrative Update • Feb 16

VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Support PJM Data Center Demand

Analysts kept their average price target for Vistra around $293, with modest tweaks to assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, reflecting mixed but generally constructive recent research updates on the company and its long term contracts and acquisitions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Vistra has leaned constructive, with several price target adjustments and ratings actions reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to execute on long term contracts, acquisitions, and capital allocation.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Agreements Will Support PJM Data Center Demand

Analysts have nudged their average price targets on Vistra higher into a range around $217 to $293, citing recent long term nuclear power agreements with Meta, as well as updated expectations for execution and market conditions as key drivers behind the recalibration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Vistra reflects mixed adjustments to price targets, but the tone from several bullish analysts remains constructive.
Narrative Update • Jan 19

VST: Long Term Meta Nuclear Contracts Will Support Data Center Power Demand

Analysts nudged their price target on Vistra up to $293 from $288 as they factor in stronger contracted growth from long term Meta power agreements and updated expectations for revenue, margins and future P/E multiples across the independent power producer group. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are largely framing the latest Vistra moves, including long term power agreements with Meta and recent generation acquisitions, as supportive for the company’s valuation and earnings power within the independent power producer peer group.
Narrative Update • Jan 04

VST: Data Center Demand Will Drive Long-Term Power Pricing Upside

The analyst price target for Vistra has inched higher to approximately $233 per share from about $231, as analysts factor in a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly stronger margin outlook, and supportive sector research highlighting rising power prices and data-center-driven demand for electric utilities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts remain constructive on Vistra, highlighting that the combination of rising power prices, data center demand, and improving cash flows supports a premium valuation versus historical levels.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

VST: Data Center Power Demand Will Drive Long-Term Cash Flow Upside

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Vistra to $288 from $232 per share. This reflects higher projected revenue growth and profit margins driven by accelerating data center power demand, robust pricing for thermal IPPs, and a series of supportive Overweight and Buy initiations and price target increases across the Street.
Narrative Update • Dec 01

VST: Long-Term Power Deals And Buybacks Will Drive Strength Ahead

Analysts have moderately increased their price target for Vistra, raising fair value from $228.26 to $230.71 per share. This change reflects expectations for stable earnings growth and sector tailwinds, despite slightly tempered revenue outlooks.
Narrative Update • Nov 17

VST: Accelerating Power Demand From Data Centers Will Drive Next Phase

Vistra's analyst price target has been raised slightly to approximately $228. Analysts cite robust earnings prospects supported by surging power demand, higher expected growth rates, and industry tailwinds from evolving utility and data center markets.
Narrative Update • Nov 02

VST: Accelerating Power Demand Will Drive New Nuclear And Gas Asset Expansion

Vistra's analyst fair value price target has been modestly raised from $226.45 to $227.03. Analysts point to factors including improving profit margins, a positive outlook for thermal IPPs due to higher power prices, and robust demand growth driven by data centers and utility asset upgrades.
Narrative Update • Oct 18

Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility

Vistra's analyst price target has been raised by nearly $2.53 to $226.45, as analysts cite an improved profit margin outlook and continued sector optimism. This optimism is driven by strong power demand and asset expansion opportunities.
Narrative Update • Oct 04

Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility

Vistra's analyst price target has risen by approximately $2 to just under $224, as analysts cite updated EBITDA estimates, new power agreements, and favorable market fundamentals for the upgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Vistra reflects a dynamic mix of optimism and caution among analysts as the company continues to secure long-term power agreements, increase capacity, and benefit from evolving power market fundamentals.
Narrative Update • Sep 18

Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility

Upward revisions to Vistra's price target reflect bullish sentiment driven by record PJM capacity prices, growing power demand from AI adoption and data centers, higher expected EBITDA, and regulatory tailwinds, resulting in a new analyst consensus fair value of $221.57. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite record PJM capacity market prices for the 2026-2027 delivery year and a favorable shift in power market dynamics, leading to valuation upside.
Narrative Update • Aug 08

Increasing AI And Data Center Demand Will Energize Grid Flexibility

The consensus analyst price target for Vistra has increased to $207.22, primarily reflecting an improved net profit margin, despite a slight reduction in revenue growth forecasts. What's in the News Vistra completed the repurchase of 1,705,797 shares for $273.13 million, totaling 163,499,236 shares (39.89% of shares outstanding) bought back for $5,350 million under its ongoing buyback program.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 28

Vistra: Stay Long, Key Drivers Intact

Summary Vistra has sold off on fears that the AI/Data Center demand may evaporate, which is one of three demand drivers. VST's 2026 "guidance" may be a communication error; potential high-impact events in 2025 could materially change the outlook. Valuation points to a US$175 YE25 price target at 13x P/cash earnings on 10% 3yr growth. Free cash flow of over US$3bn annually can add further upside via share buybacks or M&A. I rate VST a BUY; recent weakness is misplaced, and the stock should benefit from ongoing demand and strategic capacity additions. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 11

Vistra Stands To Benefit From The Energy State Of Emergency

Summary President Trump declared a national energy emergency, expediting energy infrastructure projects to support increased electricity demand from AI, EVs, and electrification. Vistra Corp. is positioned to benefit from the energy crisis. Key growth drivers include AI and EV demand, though challenges like the outdated US electric grid and regulatory uncertainty remain. VST shares surged 293% in the past year, with a further 21% upside potential and a 'Buy' rating. Long-term price target of $204. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 27

Vistra: DeepSeek Sparks Undue AI Selling (Rating Upgrade)

Summary I am upgrading Vistra Corp. to a buy due to improved EPS forecasts and technical support around current levels. Despite a 25%+ drop on January 27, VST shares are up big in the last year, and shares are now a value considering the growth trajectory. Vistra's impressive Q3 results and strong cash flow highlight its robust financial health and growth potential. Key risks include AI competition, regulatory changes, and market volatility. I outline key price levels to watch ahead of earnings as implied volatility spikes. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 23

Power Play: Why Vistra Is My Favorite Utility Star

Summary Vistra's strategic mix of nuclear and coal power, combined with robust free cash flow, drives aggressive share buybacks and shareholder value. AI and data center demand boost power needs in ERCOT and PJM markets, positioning Vistra for significant long-term growth. Despite a low dividend yield, Vistra's disciplined capital allocation and growth trajectory make it a top utility stock pick. Valuation remains attractive with strong EPS growth projections, making Vistra a buyable stock even after its recent rally. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:VST - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202826,5523,8784,7627,78211
12/31/202725,2683,6244,7937,02413
12/31/202623,3113,1703,7926,22813
3/31/202619,4452,0491,1364,670N/A
12/31/202517,7387524044,070N/A
9/30/202517,1919601,1023,991N/A
6/30/202518,5082,1961,1274,226N/A
3/31/202518,1032,2341,8444,850N/A
12/31/202417,2242,4672,0324,563N/A
9/30/202416,2651,8521,3714,091N/A
6/30/202414,0644771,5143,949N/A
3/31/202413,4085982,0144,330N/A
12/31/202314,7791,3433,2065,453N/A
9/30/202315,5701,2812,9914,965N/A
6/30/202316,6291,4482,4274,220N/A
3/31/202315,028-393-281,329N/A
12/31/202213,728-1,377-844485N/A
9/30/202213,173-388-1,218379N/A
6/30/202211,018-1,014-1,396128N/A
3/31/202211,9954251382,038N/A
12/31/202112,077-1,295-1,452-206N/A
9/30/202111,287-2,029-1,156494N/A
6/30/202111,848-1,592-750971N/A
3/31/202111,792-1,463-4841,132N/A
12/31/202011,4436361,5743,337N/A
9/30/202011,7798991,8233,263N/A
6/30/202011,4215691,8083,163N/A
3/31/202011,7447591,6522,900N/A
12/31/201911,809928N/A2,736N/A
9/30/201911,512508N/A2,431N/A
6/30/201911,561725N/A2,382N/A
3/31/201911,302477N/A1,881N/A
12/31/20189,144-54N/A1,471N/A
9/30/20187,524-447N/A1,404N/A
6/30/20186,115-504N/A1,024N/A
3/31/20184,838-638N/A1,223N/A
12/31/20175,430-254N/A1,386N/A
9/30/20175,678818N/A884N/A
6/30/20175,534731N/A588N/A
3/31/20175,472258N/A175N/A
12/31/20165,164-163N/A-157N/A
9/30/20165,078-2,266N/A-168N/A
6/30/20165,126-3,969N/A36N/A
3/31/20165,147-3,684N/A150N/A
12/31/20155,370-4,677N/A237N/A
9/30/20155,512-8,134N/A268N/A
6/30/20155,581-6,653N/A274N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VST's forecast earnings growth (13.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: VST's earnings (13.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: VST's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: VST's revenue (6.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VST's revenue (6.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VST's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (28.6%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/18 12:22
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/18 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Vistra Corp. is covered by 29 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
James ThalackerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Moses SuttonBNP Paribas
Ross FowlerBofA Global Research