Vistra Corp.

NYSE:VST Stock Report

Market Cap: US$47.5b

Vistra Valuation

Is VST undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VST when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VST ($140.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($428.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VST is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VST?

Key metric: As VST is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VST. This is calculated by dividing VST's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VST's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.7x
EarningsUS$1.85b
Market CapUS$47.52b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VST's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VST vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.1x
TLN Talen Energy
9.3x-21.1%US$10.2b
AES AES
8.8x14.0%US$9.1b
AEP American Electric Power Company
18.6x8.9%US$49.3b
PCG PG&E
15.7x10.1%US$43.0b
VST Vistra
25.7x15.2%US$47.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the peer average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VST's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Renewable Energy Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VST 25.7xIndustry Avg. 15.3xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VST is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the Global Renewable Energy industry average (15.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VST's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VST PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.7x
Fair PE Ratio29.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VST is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VST forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$140.09
US$160.46
+14.5%
22.8%US$231.00US$52.00n/a15
Dec ’25US$159.84
US$157.46
-1.5%
22.2%US$231.00US$52.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$119.51
US$141.48
+18.4%
25.3%US$231.00US$46.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$122.55
US$123.83
+1.0%
21.0%US$157.00US$46.00n/a12
Sep ’25US$85.43
US$110.90
+29.8%
20.2%US$133.00US$46.00n/a11
Aug ’25US$76.04
US$110.63
+45.5%
21.0%US$133.00US$43.00n/a11
Jul ’25US$87.34
US$109.99
+25.9%
20.8%US$133.00US$43.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$99.08
US$108.99
+10.0%
20.9%US$133.00US$43.00n/a11
May ’25US$76.86
US$70.69
-8.0%
28.0%US$95.00US$32.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$71.53
US$58.80
-17.8%
24.5%US$78.00US$32.00n/a10
Mar ’25US$54.50
US$49.00
-10.1%
20.7%US$62.00US$26.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$43.26
US$42.30
-2.2%
13.9%US$48.00US$26.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$38.52
US$39.81
+3.4%
14.9%US$46.00US$26.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$36.28
US$39.50
+8.9%
14.7%US$46.00US$26.00US$159.8410
Nov ’24US$33.93
US$36.78
+8.4%
13.2%US$42.00US$26.00US$119.519
Oct ’24US$33.18
US$36.00
+8.5%
12.8%US$40.00US$26.00US$122.559
Sep ’24US$31.79
US$34.22
+7.7%
13.8%US$40.00US$24.00US$85.439
Aug ’24US$27.89
US$32.56
+16.7%
12.1%US$37.00US$24.00US$76.049
Jul ’24US$26.25
US$32.22
+22.8%
12.0%US$37.00US$24.00US$87.349
Jun ’24US$24.64
US$32.11
+30.3%
12.1%US$37.00US$24.00US$99.089
May ’24US$23.43
US$31.89
+36.1%
12.1%US$37.00US$24.00US$76.869
Apr ’24US$24.00
US$31.60
+31.7%
11.3%US$37.00US$24.00US$71.5310
Mar ’24US$21.71
US$30.30
+39.6%
9.6%US$35.00US$23.00US$54.5010
Feb ’24US$23.20
US$30.30
+30.6%
9.8%US$35.00US$23.00US$43.2610
Jan ’24US$23.20
US$30.90
+33.2%
10.0%US$35.00US$23.00US$38.5210
Dec ’23US$24.53
US$30.80
+25.6%
9.8%US$35.00US$23.00US$36.2810

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 22:00
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Vistra Corp. is covered by 25 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
James ThalackerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
null nullBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Moses SuttonBNP Paribas Exane