Autodesk (ADSK): Evaluating Valuation Following Q2 Beat, Upgraded Outlook, and New Strategic Partnerships

If you’ve been watching Autodesk (ADSK) lately, the recent string of announcements might have you wondering if it’s finally time to take a closer look at the stock. The company’s second-quarter results topped expectations, and leadership dialed guidance higher for both revenue and free cash flow this year. That confidence wasn’t built on numbers alone. High-profile deals, such as enhanced integrations with Aurigo Software and new collaborations with the New England Patriots and Eaton, signal Autodesk is actively broadening its ecosystem and relevance across major industries.

This steady stream of positive news appears to have sparked fresh momentum in the share price. The stock has climbed 18% over the past year, with roughly 10% of that gain coming just year-to-date. Although longer-term investors have enjoyed impressive multi-year returns, the renewed energy over the past month stands out as Autodesk doubles down on client partnerships and advanced technology offerings. While competition in enterprise software remains intense, these recent deals put Autodesk’s reach and potential growth drivers back in the spotlight.

So the big question following the latest rally and upbeat financial outlook: Is there still untapped value in Autodesk, or is the stock already capturing the future growth everyone expects?

Most Popular Narrative: 10% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Autodesk is considered undervalued by about 10%, reflecting analyst optimism for its future earnings, margin expansion, and strong momentum in core business lines.

Continued innovation and integration of AI-driven tools (such as generative design and AutoConstrain) and industry-specific foundation models are boosting customer productivity and differentiating Autodesk's offerings. This supports premium pricing while driving margin expansion and long-term earnings growth.

Are you intrigued by Autodesk's high-tech moat and the powerful tailwinds analysts see driving future profits? The numbers fueling this bullish outlook are drawn from a growth playbook that could surprise even seasoned investors. Want to know the unexpected and bold assumptions at the heart of this narrative and how they build to a double-digit discount? Dive deeper to uncover the details analysts are betting on in their fair value calculation.

Result: Fair Value of $358.96 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the increased adoption of open-source alternatives and customer friction with Autodesk’s new transaction models could present challenges to growth expectations and weaken its pricing power.

Find out about the key risks to this Autodesk narrative.

Another View: Is the Price Telling a Different Story?

Looking at a price-to-earnings ratio instead, Autodesk stands out as expensive compared to the overall software industry. This measure suggests the market is already pricing in high expectations. Whose view is closer to reality?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Autodesk to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Autodesk Narrative

If this perspective isn’t quite your own, or you’d rather put the numbers to the test yourself, you can shape your own Autodesk story in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Autodesk research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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