Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

NYSE:PAG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.6b

Penske Automotive Group Valuation

Is PAG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PAG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PAG ($157.23) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($148.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PAG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PAG?

Key metric: As PAG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PAG. This is calculated by dividing PAG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PAG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12x
EarningsUS$873.20m
Market CapUS$10.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PAG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PAG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.7x
MUSA Murphy USA
20.8x7.2%US$10.6b
LAD Lithia Motors
12.4x13.3%US$9.9b
KMX CarMax
28.4x19.4%US$11.7b
AN AutoNation
9x7.2%US$6.5b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
12x2.6%US$10.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PAG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$14.40m
SSOK Sunstock
2.3xn/aUS$771.79k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.09xn/aUS$192.03k
CONN.Q Conn's
n/an/aUS$2.49k
PAG 12.0xIndustry Avg. 16.7xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PAG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PAG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PAG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$157.23
US$169.95
+8.1%
7.1%US$188.00US$150.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$150.51
US$169.95
+12.9%
7.1%US$188.00US$150.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$162.04
US$171.20
+5.7%
8.8%US$200.00US$148.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$170.10
US$160.51
-5.6%
16.4%US$200.00US$115.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$171.25
US$155.59
-9.1%
14.8%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$147.12
US$154.02
+4.7%
14.7%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$152.10
US$154.02
+1.3%
14.7%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
May ’25US$151.98
US$154.41
+1.6%
15.1%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$160.72
US$153.70
-4.4%
14.7%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$154.64
US$153.70
-0.6%
14.7%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$152.82
US$158.10
+3.5%
19.4%US$200.00US$107.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$160.51
US$155.11
-3.4%
19.3%US$200.00US$107.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$154.27
US$155.11
+0.5%
19.3%US$200.00US$107.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$147.74
US$155.86
+5.5%
21.0%US$205.00US$107.00US$150.517
Oct ’24US$167.06
US$158.57
-5.1%
20.8%US$205.00US$107.00US$162.047
Sep ’24US$166.17
US$158.57
-4.6%
20.8%US$205.00US$107.00US$170.107
Aug ’24US$162.61
US$155.86
-4.2%
24.1%US$205.00US$88.00US$171.257
Jul ’24US$166.63
US$145.29
-12.8%
20.4%US$175.00US$88.00US$147.127
Jun ’24US$138.43
US$143.14
+3.4%
20.0%US$175.00US$88.00US$152.107
May ’24US$142.78
US$143.14
+0.3%
20.0%US$175.00US$88.00US$151.987
Apr ’24US$141.81
US$145.14
+2.4%
20.8%US$180.00US$88.00US$160.727
Mar ’24US$144.72
US$143.71
-0.7%
21.9%US$180.00US$88.00US$154.647
Feb ’24US$130.72
US$133.00
+1.7%
20.8%US$175.00US$88.00US$152.827
Jan ’24US$114.93
US$135.71
+18.1%
23.0%US$185.00US$93.00US$160.517
Dec ’23US$124.75
US$135.71
+8.8%
23.0%US$185.00US$93.00US$154.277
Nov ’23US$114.63
US$135.29
+18.0%
22.6%US$182.00US$93.00US$147.747

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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