Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

NYSE:PAG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.5b

Penske Automotive Group Valuation

Is PAG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PAG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PAG ($157.38) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($151.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PAG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PAG?

Key metric: As PAG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PAG. This is calculated by dividing PAG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PAG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12x
EarningsUS$873.20m
Market CapUS$10.51b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PAG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PAG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.5x
MUSA Murphy USA
20.6x7.2%US$10.5b
LAD Lithia Motors
12x13.4%US$9.6b
KMX CarMax
28.1x17.7%US$13.0b
AN AutoNation
9.3x6.9%US$6.7b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
12x2.7%US$10.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PAG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$13.93m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.08xn/aUS$144.03k
EXPR.Q Express
0.000004xn/aUS$749.00
PAG 12.0xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PAG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PAG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PAG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$157.38
US$173.84
+10.5%
8.0%US$195.00US$150.00n/a9
Dec ’25US$166.54
US$172.45
+3.5%
8.2%US$195.00US$150.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$150.51
US$169.95
+12.9%
7.1%US$188.00US$150.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$162.04
US$171.20
+5.7%
8.8%US$200.00US$148.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$170.10
US$160.51
-5.6%
16.4%US$200.00US$115.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$171.25
US$155.59
-9.1%
14.8%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$147.12
US$154.02
+4.7%
14.7%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$152.10
US$154.02
+1.3%
14.7%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
May ’25US$151.98
US$154.41
+1.6%
15.1%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$160.72
US$153.70
-4.4%
14.7%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$154.64
US$153.70
-0.6%
14.7%US$185.00US$115.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$152.82
US$158.10
+3.5%
19.4%US$200.00US$107.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$160.51
US$155.11
-3.4%
19.3%US$200.00US$107.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$154.27
US$155.11
+0.5%
19.3%US$200.00US$107.00US$166.548
Nov ’24US$147.74
US$155.86
+5.5%
21.0%US$205.00US$107.00US$150.517
Oct ’24US$167.06
US$158.57
-5.1%
20.8%US$205.00US$107.00US$162.047
Sep ’24US$166.17
US$158.57
-4.6%
20.8%US$205.00US$107.00US$170.107
Aug ’24US$162.61
US$155.86
-4.2%
24.1%US$205.00US$88.00US$171.257
Jul ’24US$166.63
US$145.29
-12.8%
20.4%US$175.00US$88.00US$147.127
Jun ’24US$138.43
US$143.14
+3.4%
20.0%US$175.00US$88.00US$152.107
May ’24US$142.78
US$143.14
+0.3%
20.0%US$175.00US$88.00US$151.987
Apr ’24US$141.81
US$145.14
+2.4%
20.8%US$180.00US$88.00US$160.727
Mar ’24US$144.72
US$143.71
-0.7%
21.9%US$180.00US$88.00US$154.647
Feb ’24US$130.72
US$133.00
+1.7%
20.8%US$175.00US$88.00US$152.827
Jan ’24US$114.93
US$135.71
+18.1%
23.0%US$185.00US$93.00US$160.517
Dec ’23US$124.75
US$135.71
+8.8%
23.0%US$185.00US$93.00US$154.277

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:39
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. is covered by 30 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Michael AlbaneseBenchmark Company
Andrew FungBerenberg
John MurphyBofA Global Research