AutoNation, Inc.

NYSE:AN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.6b

AutoNation Valuation

Is AN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AN ($169.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($195.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AN?

Key metric: As AN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AN. This is calculated by dividing AN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.3x
EarningsUS$722.30m
Market CapUS$6.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.3x
GPI Group 1 Automotive
10.8x7.8%US$5.3b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
12x2.7%US$10.5b
MUSA Murphy USA
20.9x7.2%US$10.5b
ABG Asbury Automotive Group
13.4x20.3%US$4.8b
AN AutoNation
9.3x6.9%US$6.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the peer average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
1.9xn/aUS$14.65m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.09xn/aUS$168.03k
CONN.Q Conn's
n/an/aUS$2.49k
AN 9.3xIndustry Avg. 16.3xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.3x
Fair PE Ratio14.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$169.77
US$197.64
+16.4%
8.2%US$230.00US$169.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$178.89
US$197.64
+10.5%
8.2%US$230.00US$169.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$156.25
US$195.91
+25.4%
7.1%US$220.00US$169.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$178.10
US$199.82
+12.2%
6.5%US$220.00US$180.00n/a11
Sep ’25US$177.98
US$190.30
+6.9%
12.2%US$220.00US$145.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$183.95
US$190.10
+3.3%
12.5%US$220.00US$145.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$161.88
US$181.80
+12.3%
13.1%US$220.00US$145.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$170.25
US$179.80
+5.6%
11.7%US$211.00US$145.00n/a10
May ’25US$162.85
US$176.64
+8.5%
12.8%US$211.00US$140.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$164.76
US$169.55
+2.9%
14.2%US$220.00US$140.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$151.98
US$168.40
+10.8%
14.8%US$220.00US$140.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$145.63
US$170.33
+17.0%
20.6%US$255.00US$117.00n/a12
Jan ’25US$150.18
US$166.50
+10.9%
21.9%US$255.00US$117.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$140.13
US$166.50
+18.8%
21.9%US$255.00US$117.00US$178.8910
Nov ’24US$132.95
US$166.60
+25.3%
20.0%US$245.00US$117.00US$156.2510
Oct ’24US$151.40
US$175.11
+15.7%
18.8%US$245.00US$117.00US$178.109
Sep ’24US$160.66
US$172.60
+7.4%
18.6%US$245.00US$117.00US$177.9810
Aug ’24US$159.98
US$171.40
+7.1%
20.0%US$245.00US$105.00US$183.9510
Jul ’24US$164.61
US$159.90
-2.9%
21.0%US$225.00US$96.00US$161.8810
Jun ’24US$131.58
US$159.90
+21.5%
21.0%US$225.00US$96.00US$170.2510
May ’24US$136.99
US$159.90
+16.7%
21.0%US$225.00US$96.00US$162.8510
Apr ’24US$134.36
US$160.50
+19.5%
18.6%US$205.00US$96.00US$164.7610
Mar ’24US$137.24
US$159.20
+16.0%
18.9%US$205.00US$96.00US$151.9810
Feb ’24US$130.00
US$146.00
+12.3%
23.7%US$210.00US$96.00US$145.6310
Jan ’24US$107.30
US$148.50
+38.4%
27.0%US$238.00US$104.00US$150.1810
Dec ’23US$121.17
US$148.50
+22.6%
27.0%US$238.00US$104.00US$140.1310

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 09:18
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

AutoNation, Inc. is covered by 32 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Andrew FungBerenberg
John MurphyBofA Global Research