Murphy USA Inc.

NYSE:MUSA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.6b

Murphy USA Valuation

Is MUSA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MUSA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MUSA ($525.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($669.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MUSA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MUSA?

Key metric: As MUSA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MUSA. This is calculated by dividing MUSA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MUSA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.8x
EarningsUS$510.00m
Market CapUS$10.62b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MUSA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MUSA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.5x
PAG Penske Automotive Group
12x2.6%US$10.6b
LAD Lithia Motors
12.4x13.3%US$9.9b
KMX CarMax
28.4x19.4%US$11.7b
AN AutoNation
9x7.2%US$6.5b
MUSA Murphy USA
20.8x7.2%US$10.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MUSA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the peer average (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MUSA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$14.40m
SSOK Sunstock
2.3xn/aUS$771.79k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.09xn/aUS$192.03k
CONN.Q Conn's
n/an/aUS$2.49k
MUSA 20.8xIndustry Avg. 16.7xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MUSA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MUSA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MUSA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.8x
Fair PE Ratio15x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MUSA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MUSA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$525.02
US$495.00
-5.7%
15.4%US$590.00US$370.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$484.77
US$493.57
+1.8%
15.7%US$590.00US$370.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$496.43
US$487.43
-1.8%
18.2%US$590.00US$325.00n/a7
Sep ’25US$519.63
US$484.57
-6.7%
18.7%US$590.00US$325.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$514.98
US$482.43
-6.3%
18.5%US$590.00US$325.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$463.48
US$418.00
-9.8%
11.7%US$460.00US$315.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$438.75
US$425.86
-2.9%
11.5%US$470.00US$315.00n/a7
May ’25US$411.80
US$427.43
+3.8%
12.0%US$490.00US$315.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$426.97
US$423.71
-0.8%
12.3%US$490.00US$315.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$418.89
US$411.00
-1.9%
13.0%US$470.00US$315.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$354.94
US$381.29
+7.4%
11.7%US$425.00US$292.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$356.56
US$375.57
+5.3%
11.1%US$425.00US$292.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$370.62
US$375.57
+1.3%
11.1%US$425.00US$292.00n/a7
Nov ’24US$365.36
US$347.50
-4.9%
10.1%US$385.00US$280.00US$484.776
Oct ’24US$341.73
US$338.71
-0.9%
13.1%US$390.00US$252.00US$496.437
Sep ’24US$318.44
US$330.86
+3.9%
12.2%US$390.00US$252.00US$519.637
Aug ’24US$303.27
US$317.57
+4.7%
14.1%US$370.00US$240.00US$514.987
Jul ’24US$311.11
US$310.86
-0.08%
13.1%US$360.00US$240.00US$463.487
Jun ’24US$280.87
US$307.43
+9.5%
14.4%US$360.00US$240.00US$438.757
May ’24US$276.08
US$295.57
+7.1%
16.2%US$360.00US$224.00US$411.807
Apr ’24US$258.05
US$295.57
+14.5%
16.2%US$360.00US$224.00US$426.977
Mar ’24US$255.20
US$297.29
+16.5%
15.6%US$360.00US$224.00US$418.897
Feb ’24US$270.50
US$302.00
+11.6%
16.2%US$360.00US$228.00US$354.946
Jan ’24US$279.54
US$303.00
+8.4%
14.3%US$360.00US$242.00US$356.567
Dec ’23US$288.92
US$293.50
+1.6%
13.5%US$355.00US$242.00US$370.626
Nov ’23US$318.67
US$293.50
-7.9%
13.5%US$355.00US$242.00US$365.366

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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