Murphy USA Inc.

NYSE:MUSA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.5b

Murphy USA Valuation

Is MUSA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MUSA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MUSA ($519.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($655.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MUSA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MUSA?

Key metric: As MUSA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MUSA. This is calculated by dividing MUSA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MUSA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.6x
EarningsUS$510.00m
Market CapUS$10.53b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MUSA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MUSA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.4x
PAG Penske Automotive Group
12x2.7%US$10.5b
LAD Lithia Motors
12x13.4%US$9.6b
KMX CarMax
28.1x17.7%US$13.0b
AN AutoNation
9.3x6.9%US$6.7b
MUSA Murphy USA
20.6x7.2%US$10.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MUSA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the peer average (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MUSA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$13.93m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.08xn/aUS$144.03k
EXPR.Q Express
0.000004xn/aUS$749.00
MUSA 20.6xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MUSA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MUSA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MUSA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.6x
Fair PE Ratio15x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MUSA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MUSA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$519.99
US$495.00
-4.8%
15.4%US$590.00US$370.00n/a7
Dec ’25US$547.80
US$495.00
-9.6%
15.4%US$590.00US$370.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$484.77
US$493.57
+1.8%
15.7%US$590.00US$370.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$496.43
US$487.43
-1.8%
18.2%US$590.00US$325.00n/a7
Sep ’25US$519.63
US$484.57
-6.7%
18.7%US$590.00US$325.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$514.98
US$482.43
-6.3%
18.5%US$590.00US$325.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$463.48
US$418.00
-9.8%
11.7%US$460.00US$315.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$438.75
US$425.86
-2.9%
11.5%US$470.00US$315.00n/a7
May ’25US$411.80
US$427.43
+3.8%
12.0%US$490.00US$315.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$426.97
US$423.71
-0.8%
12.3%US$490.00US$315.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$418.89
US$411.00
-1.9%
13.0%US$470.00US$315.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$354.94
US$381.29
+7.4%
11.7%US$425.00US$292.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$356.56
US$375.57
+5.3%
11.1%US$425.00US$292.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$370.62
US$375.57
+1.3%
11.1%US$425.00US$292.00US$547.807
Nov ’24US$365.36
US$347.50
-4.9%
10.1%US$385.00US$280.00US$484.776
Oct ’24US$341.73
US$338.71
-0.9%
13.1%US$390.00US$252.00US$496.437
Sep ’24US$318.44
US$330.86
+3.9%
12.2%US$390.00US$252.00US$519.637
Aug ’24US$303.27
US$317.57
+4.7%
14.1%US$370.00US$240.00US$514.987
Jul ’24US$311.11
US$310.86
-0.08%
13.1%US$360.00US$240.00US$463.487
Jun ’24US$280.87
US$307.43
+9.5%
14.4%US$360.00US$240.00US$438.757
May ’24US$276.08
US$295.57
+7.1%
16.2%US$360.00US$224.00US$411.807
Apr ’24US$258.05
US$295.57
+14.5%
16.2%US$360.00US$224.00US$426.977
Mar ’24US$255.20
US$297.29
+16.5%
15.6%US$360.00US$224.00US$418.897
Feb ’24US$270.50
US$302.00
+11.6%
16.2%US$360.00US$228.00US$354.946
Jan ’24US$279.54
US$303.00
+8.4%
14.3%US$360.00US$242.00US$356.567
Dec ’23US$288.92
US$293.50
+1.6%
13.5%US$355.00US$242.00US$370.626

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:43
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Murphy USA Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Bonnie HerzogGoldman Sachs
Damian WitkowskiG. Research, LLC