Murphy USA (MUSA) Stock Overview
Together with subsidiaries, engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 1/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 5/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
MUSA Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 18 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Murphy USA Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$580.80 |
| 52 Week High | US$609.82 |
| 52 Week Low | US$345.23 |
| Beta | 0.36 |
| 1 Month Change | 10.45% |
| 3 Month Change | 53.70% |
| 1 Year Change | 30.80% |
| 3 Year Change | 109.25% |
| 5 Year Change | 314.68% |
| Change since IPO | 1,394.98% |
Recent News & Updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 04
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Cap Future Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted the Murphy USA price target from about $340 to roughly $407. The change reflects updated views on slightly higher projected profit margins, a modest adjustment to revenue growth, a higher assumed future P/E, and a small change in discount rate informed by recent Street research.
Narrative Update • Apr 20
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Exposure Will Support Future Buybacks And Mixed Sentiment
Murphy USA's analyst price target has shifted from $436.25 to $466.00 as analysts point to recent research updates that adjust assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show both optimistic and cautious views on Murphy USA, with several firms adjusting price targets up or down as they revisit key assumptions around earnings power and valuation multiples.Narrative Update • Apr 06
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Dependence Will Likely Pressure Future Earnings Power
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Murphy USA in a mixed fashion, with several firms cutting and others raising their views as they factor in a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly higher revenue growth assumption, a reduced profit margin outlook, and a higher future P/E. Their internal fair value estimate remains steady at $340.Seeking Alpha • Apr 01
Murphy USA: Iran War Benefits Reflected In The Rally (Downgrade)
Summary Murphy USA is downgraded to 'Hold' as the recent rally brings shares to fair value, with an 8% long-term return profile. MUSA benefits from increased fuel price volatility due to the Iran war, which should boost fuel margins by at least 1.5cpg in H1 2026. Despite store growth, MUSA faces headwinds from declining fuel volumes, competitive pressures, and weaker discretionary spending impacting merchandise margins. Capital returns remain robust, with ongoing buybacks yielding sub-5% and leverage at a comfortable 2x, but no compelling upside until a pullback below $450. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 23
MUSA: Low Cost Fuel Model And Buybacks Will Drive Future Returns
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Murphy USA by a few tens of dollars in recent weeks, reflecting a mix of reduced expectations tied to softer fuel and nicotine trends, along with at least one higher target that leans on the company’s low cost fuel model and Walmart adjacency. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy USA has been mixed, but it includes several constructive signals that bullish analysts highlight when they look past near term fuel and nicotine headwinds.Narrative Update • Mar 08
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Restrain Future Upside
Analysts have recently trimmed their average price targets on Murphy USA by a wide range, roughly $20 to $55 in several cases, citing more cautious views on fuel price volatility, cigarette volumes, and near term earnings power, even as some still see room for upside reflected in prior target increases. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a clear shift toward more cautious pricing of Murphy USA, with several bearish analysts trimming targets by wide margins after previously setting higher bars for the stock.Narrative Update • Feb 22
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Dependence Will Likely Cap Future Share Returns
Analysts trimmed their average price targets for Murphy USA by a wide range, with cuts of $22 to $55 and a new $405 target emerging, as they reassessed fuel demand, pricing volatility and cigarette volume headwinds, along with a modest shift to slightly lower growth and discount rate assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy USA has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and highlighting risks tied to the company’s fuel heavy and nicotine heavy mix.Narrative Update • Feb 08
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Exposure Will Support Long Term Buyback Upside
Analysts nudged their fair value estimate for Murphy USA up from about US$423 to roughly US$436. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly lower growth, a modestly higher discount rate, small changes in margin expectations and a lower future P/E, alongside mixed recent price target moves across the Street.Narrative Update • Jan 25
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Restrain Future Share Returns
The analyst price target for Murphy USA has been reset to $340 from $350 as analysts balance higher assumed revenue growth and a lower future P/E with a higher discount rate and slightly softer profit margin expectations, alongside mixed recent research that includes both higher external price targets and a new Underperform rating. Analyst Commentary Street research around Murphy USA has been mixed, with several firms lifting their price targets while one major bank initiated coverage with a more cautious stance.Narrative Update • Jan 11
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Temper Benefits From Buybacks And Leadership Shift
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Murphy USA to US$405, citing concerns that low gas prices, muted fuel price swings, softer cigarette volumes, and a relatively modest foodservice offering could limit upside compared with peers, given the company’s heavy exposure to fuel and nicotine spending by financially stretched lower income consumers. Analyst Commentary Street research on Murphy USA centers on how its fuel centric, value focused model lines up with current consumer pressures and what that could mean for execution and valuation at the current US$405 price target.Analysis Article • Jan 06
Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Narrative Update • Dec 23
MUSA: Share Repurchases And Leadership Transition Will Drive Strong Shareholder Returns
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Murphy USA from 600 dollars to 550 dollars, citing a slightly higher discount rate and modestly lower long term margin and valuation assumptions that more than offset stronger projected revenue growth. What's in the News Authorized a new share repurchase program of up to 2 billion dollars through December 31, 2030, supporting the company’s long term capital allocation strategy (company announcement) Completed repurchase of 2.63 million shares, about 13.04% of shares outstanding, under the buyback program launched in May 2023.Narrative Update • Dec 09
MUSA: Leadership Transition And Expanded Buybacks Will Support Steady Shareholder Returns
Analysts have slightly raised their price target on Murphy USA by $0.00 to reflect marginally higher discount rate assumptions and a modestly richer future P E multiple, while keeping fair value estimates effectively unchanged. What's in the News The Board has named current Chief Operating Officer Mindy K.Narrative Update • Nov 25
MUSA: Leadership Changes and $2 Billion Buybacks Will Drive Shareholder Value
Analysts have maintained their price target for Murphy USA at $423.29. They cited minor shifts in underlying financial assumptions that did not substantially alter their overall outlook for the company.Narrative Update • Nov 07
MUSA: Leadership Transition And Expanded Buybacks Will Drive Stronger Returns
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Murphy USA, lowering it from $431.71 to $423.29. This revision is due to increased discount rates and minor adjustments in profit margin forecasts, even though there are expectations for stronger revenue growth.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Leadership Changes And Share Buybacks Will Drive Suburban Expansion Plans Forward
Analysts have revised their price target for Murphy USA slightly downward from $439.57 to $431.71. This adjustment reflects ongoing changes to growth and margin expectations.Narrative Update • Oct 10
Fuel Convenience Expansion Will Support Future Suburban Growth
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for Murphy USA from $446.71 to $439.57, citing slight adjustments in growth and profitability assumptions. What's in the News The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.53 per share, or $2.12 annualized.Analysis Article • Sep 14
Is Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) Using Too Much Debt?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Jul 25
Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA)
With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 19x in the United States, you could be forgiven for...Analysis Article • May 14
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Murphy USA fair value estimate is US$403 With US$435 share...Seeking Alpha • Jan 29
Murphy USA Still Makes Sense If We Factor Future Growth Plans Into The Mix
Summary Murphy USA has shown strong performance since my initial 'buy' rating in September 2022, outperforming the S&P 500 with a 69.4% gain. Despite recent revenue and profit declines, operational stability is evident with increased fuel sales volume and merchandise sales. Management projects significant profitability growth by 2028, with potential annualized upside of 13.9% to 15.1%, outpacing the S&P 500. Maintaining a 'buy' rating due to the company's fundamental strength and future growth prospects, despite potential short-term bumps. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 20
Murphy USA: I Expect Murphy To Continue To Be A Share Cannibal
Summary Murphy USA has shown exceptional capital allocation, resulting in strong EPS growth and stock performance. Share buybacks have significantly boosted stock value, but high current P/E ratio limits future buyback benefits. Murphy's competitive edge includes high net income per employee and strategic locations near Walmart, but margins lag behind competitors. Risks include delayed transition to EV charging stations and a relatively high debt load, though management's competence remains a strong asset. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Aug 23
Expanding Stores And Innovating Digitally Fuels Growth Amid Market Challenges
Expansion strategy and digital investments aim to amplify customer experience and operational efficiencies, fostering revenue and margin growth.Shareholder Returns
| MUSA | US Specialty Retail | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -1.2% | -1.6% | 2.1% |
| 1Y | 30.8% | 5.5% | 30.6% |
Return vs Industry: MUSA exceeded the US Specialty Retail industry which returned 7.6% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MUSA matched the US Market which returned 31% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MUSA volatility | |
|---|---|
| MUSA Average Weekly Movement | 6.6% |
| Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement | 7.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: MUSA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MUSA's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 11,400 | Mindy West | www.murphyusa.com |
Murphy USA Inc., together with subsidiaries, engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, as well as operates non-fuel convenience stores. It operates retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest areas of the United States.
Murphy USA Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| MUSA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$10.65b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$553.70m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$17.30b |
19.4x
P/E Ratio0.6x
P/S RatioIs MUSA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MUSA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$17.30b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$15.86b |
| Gross Profit | US$1.43b |
| Other Expenses | US$880.90m |
| Earnings | US$553.70m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 29.98 |
| Gross Margin | 8.29% |
| Net Profit Margin | 3.20% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 311.8% |
How did MUSA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.4%
Current Dividend Yield8%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 19:06 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Murphy USA Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Lisa Lewandowski | BofA Global Research |
| Bonnie Herzog | Goldman Sachs |
| Corey Tarlowe | Jefferies LLC |