Murphy USA Inc.

NYSE:MUSA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.6b

Murphy USA Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Murphy USA's earnings are forecast to decline at 0.6% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 5.9% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 1.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 80.7% in 3 years.

Key information

-0.6%

Earnings growth rate

1.36%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth9.8%
Revenue growth rate5.9%
Future return on equity80.72%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated01 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 04

MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Cap Future Upside Potential

Analysts have lifted the Murphy USA price target from about $340 to roughly $407. The change reflects updated views on slightly higher projected profit margins, a modest adjustment to revenue growth, a higher assumed future P/E, and a small change in discount rate informed by recent Street research.
Narrative Update • Apr 20

MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Exposure Will Support Future Buybacks And Mixed Sentiment

Murphy USA's analyst price target has shifted from $436.25 to $466.00 as analysts point to recent research updates that adjust assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show both optimistic and cautious views on Murphy USA, with several firms adjusting price targets up or down as they revisit key assumptions around earnings power and valuation multiples.
Narrative Update • Apr 06

MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Dependence Will Likely Pressure Future Earnings Power

Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Murphy USA in a mixed fashion, with several firms cutting and others raising their views as they factor in a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly higher revenue growth assumption, a reduced profit margin outlook, and a higher future P/E. Their internal fair value estimate remains steady at $340.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 01

Murphy USA: Iran War Benefits Reflected In The Rally (Downgrade)

Summary Murphy USA is downgraded to 'Hold' as the recent rally brings shares to fair value, with an 8% long-term return profile. MUSA benefits from increased fuel price volatility due to the Iran war, which should boost fuel margins by at least 1.5cpg in H1 2026. Despite store growth, MUSA faces headwinds from declining fuel volumes, competitive pressures, and weaker discretionary spending impacting merchandise margins. Capital returns remain robust, with ongoing buybacks yielding sub-5% and leverage at a comfortable 2x, but no compelling upside until a pullback below $450. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 23

MUSA: Low Cost Fuel Model And Buybacks Will Drive Future Returns

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Murphy USA by a few tens of dollars in recent weeks, reflecting a mix of reduced expectations tied to softer fuel and nicotine trends, along with at least one higher target that leans on the company’s low cost fuel model and Walmart adjacency. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy USA has been mixed, but it includes several constructive signals that bullish analysts highlight when they look past near term fuel and nicotine headwinds.
Narrative Update • Mar 08

MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Restrain Future Upside

Analysts have recently trimmed their average price targets on Murphy USA by a wide range, roughly $20 to $55 in several cases, citing more cautious views on fuel price volatility, cigarette volumes, and near term earnings power, even as some still see room for upside reflected in prior target increases. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a clear shift toward more cautious pricing of Murphy USA, with several bearish analysts trimming targets by wide margins after previously setting higher bars for the stock.
Narrative Update • Feb 22

MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Dependence Will Likely Cap Future Share Returns

Analysts trimmed their average price targets for Murphy USA by a wide range, with cuts of $22 to $55 and a new $405 target emerging, as they reassessed fuel demand, pricing volatility and cigarette volume headwinds, along with a modest shift to slightly lower growth and discount rate assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy USA has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and highlighting risks tied to the company’s fuel heavy and nicotine heavy mix.
Narrative Update • Feb 08

MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Exposure Will Support Long Term Buyback Upside

Analysts nudged their fair value estimate for Murphy USA up from about US$423 to roughly US$436. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly lower growth, a modestly higher discount rate, small changes in margin expectations and a lower future P/E, alongside mixed recent price target moves across the Street.
Narrative Update • Jan 25

MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Restrain Future Share Returns

The analyst price target for Murphy USA has been reset to $340 from $350 as analysts balance higher assumed revenue growth and a lower future P/E with a higher discount rate and slightly softer profit margin expectations, alongside mixed recent research that includes both higher external price targets and a new Underperform rating. Analyst Commentary Street research around Murphy USA has been mixed, with several firms lifting their price targets while one major bank initiated coverage with a more cautious stance.
Narrative Update • Jan 11

MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Temper Benefits From Buybacks And Leadership Shift

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Murphy USA to US$405, citing concerns that low gas prices, muted fuel price swings, softer cigarette volumes, and a relatively modest foodservice offering could limit upside compared with peers, given the company’s heavy exposure to fuel and nicotine spending by financially stretched lower income consumers. Analyst Commentary Street research on Murphy USA centers on how its fuel centric, value focused model lines up with current consumer pressures and what that could mean for execution and valuation at the current US$405 price target.
Analysis Article • Jan 06

Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Narrative Update • Dec 23

MUSA: Share Repurchases And Leadership Transition Will Drive Strong Shareholder Returns

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Murphy USA from 600 dollars to 550 dollars, citing a slightly higher discount rate and modestly lower long term margin and valuation assumptions that more than offset stronger projected revenue growth. What's in the News Authorized a new share repurchase program of up to 2 billion dollars through December 31, 2030, supporting the company’s long term capital allocation strategy (company announcement) Completed repurchase of 2.63 million shares, about 13.04% of shares outstanding, under the buyback program launched in May 2023.
Narrative Update • Dec 09

MUSA: Leadership Transition And Expanded Buybacks Will Support Steady Shareholder Returns

Analysts have slightly raised their price target on Murphy USA by $0.00 to reflect marginally higher discount rate assumptions and a modestly richer future P E multiple, while keeping fair value estimates effectively unchanged. What's in the News The Board has named current Chief Operating Officer Mindy K.
Narrative Update • Nov 25

MUSA: Leadership Changes and $2 Billion Buybacks Will Drive Shareholder Value

Analysts have maintained their price target for Murphy USA at $423.29. They cited minor shifts in underlying financial assumptions that did not substantially alter their overall outlook for the company.
Narrative Update • Nov 07

MUSA: Leadership Transition And Expanded Buybacks Will Drive Stronger Returns

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Murphy USA, lowering it from $431.71 to $423.29. This revision is due to increased discount rates and minor adjustments in profit margin forecasts, even though there are expectations for stronger revenue growth.
Narrative Update • Oct 24

Leadership Changes And Share Buybacks Will Drive Suburban Expansion Plans Forward

Analysts have revised their price target for Murphy USA slightly downward from $439.57 to $431.71. This adjustment reflects ongoing changes to growth and margin expectations.
Narrative Update • Oct 10

Fuel Convenience Expansion Will Support Future Suburban Growth

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for Murphy USA from $446.71 to $439.57, citing slight adjustments in growth and profitability assumptions. What's in the News The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.53 per share, or $2.12 annualized.
Analysis Article • Sep 14

Is Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Jul 25

Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA)

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 19x in the United States, you could be forgiven for...
Analysis Article • May 14

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA)

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Murphy USA fair value estimate is US$403 With US$435 share...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 29

Murphy USA Still Makes Sense If We Factor Future Growth Plans Into The Mix

Summary Murphy USA has shown strong performance since my initial 'buy' rating in September 2022, outperforming the S&P 500 with a 69.4% gain. Despite recent revenue and profit declines, operational stability is evident with increased fuel sales volume and merchandise sales. Management projects significant profitability growth by 2028, with potential annualized upside of 13.9% to 15.1%, outpacing the S&P 500. Maintaining a 'buy' rating due to the company's fundamental strength and future growth prospects, despite potential short-term bumps. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 20

Murphy USA: I Expect Murphy To Continue To Be A Share Cannibal

Summary Murphy USA has shown exceptional capital allocation, resulting in strong EPS growth and stock performance. Share buybacks have significantly boosted stock value, but high current P/E ratio limits future buyback benefits. Murphy's competitive edge includes high net income per employee and strategic locations near Walmart, but margins lag behind competitors. Risks include delayed transition to EV charging stations and a relatively high debt load, though management's competence remains a strong asset. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Aug 23

Expanding Stores And Innovating Digitally Fuels Growth Amid Market Challenges

Expansion strategy and digital investments aim to amplify customer experience and operational efficiencies, fostering revenue and margin growth.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MUSA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202821,6085434278953
12/31/202721,70651340785510
12/31/202621,98559154592910
3/31/202617,2995545551,005N/A
12/31/202517,018471374814N/A
9/30/202517,008471367817N/A
6/30/202517,149491365834N/A
3/31/202517,598490370840N/A
12/31/202417,909503390848N/A
9/30/202418,275510430872N/A
6/30/202418,854529475860N/A
3/31/202418,991517431770N/A
12/31/202319,238557448784N/A
9/30/202319,564525427734N/A
6/30/202319,973576494799N/A
3/31/202321,194627491805N/A
12/31/202221,266673689995N/A
9/30/202220,682664636922N/A
6/30/202219,136549640923N/A
3/31/202216,856494562847N/A
12/31/202115,319397463737N/A
9/30/202113,480349410683N/A
6/30/202111,793312251513N/A
3/31/20219,861352442680N/A
12/31/20209,504386333564N/A
9/30/202010,082373309530N/A
6/30/202010,849375346570N/A
3/31/202012,152239158379N/A
12/31/201912,101155N/A313N/A
9/30/201912,150185N/A409N/A
6/30/201912,315161N/A357N/A
3/31/201912,375180N/A339N/A
12/31/201812,524214N/A399N/A
9/30/201812,376261N/A359N/A
6/30/201811,800284N/A410N/A
3/31/201811,144288N/A437N/A
12/31/201710,854245N/A284N/A
9/30/201710,534164N/A294N/A
6/30/201710,324142N/A209N/A
3/31/201710,135133N/A215N/A
12/31/20169,633222N/A337N/A
9/30/20169,492207N/A277N/A
6/30/20169,824221N/A307N/A
3/31/201610,291200N/A258N/A
12/31/201510,731138N/A216N/A
9/30/201511,365203N/A238N/A
6/30/201512,617199N/A245N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MUSA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.6% per year).

Earnings vs Market: MUSA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MUSA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MUSA's revenue (5.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MUSA's revenue (5.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MUSA's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (80.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 02:43
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Murphy USA Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Lisa LewandowskiBofA Global Research
Bonnie HerzogGoldman Sachs
Corey TarloweJefferies LLC