Murphy USA Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 5/6
Murphy USA has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 3.6%, while the Specialty Retail industry saw earnings declining at 3.9% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 4.1% per year. Murphy USA's return on equity is 84.1%, and it has net margins of 3.2%.
Key information
3.63%
Earnings growth rate
10.33%
EPS growth rate
| Specialty Retail Industry Growth | 26.64% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.11% |
| Return on equity | 84.06% |
| Net Margin | 3.20% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 22
MUSA: Low Cost Fuel Margins And Buybacks Will Drive Future Upside
The analyst price target for Murphy USA has been raised from $655 to $680, reflecting analysts' updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, a marginally lower discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple, supported by recent positive research commentary and new Overweight initiations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy USA has tilted clearly positive, with several bullish analysts highlighting what they see as attractive upside drivers for the stock based on their updated price targets and ratings.Seeking Alpha • Jun 15
Murphy USA: Higher Fuel Prices Strengthen The Buy Case
Summary Murphy USA operates over 1,800 gas stations and convenience stores across 27 US states, serving 2 million customers daily. MUSA's business model emphasizes low-cost fuel paired with convenience items such as snacks, tobacco, and beverages. The company benefits when gas prices rise due to increased margin and profitability. The secular growth in nicotine, along with MUSA outlets being strategically next to Walmart stores, drives further store traffic. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 07
MUSA: Low Cost Fuel Model And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside
Narrative update on Murphy USA The analyst price target for Murphy USA has shifted from $550 to $655. Analysts attribute the higher valuation framework to updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, P/E expectations, and discount rates.
Narrative Update • May 24
MUSA: Fuel Volatility And Governance Shifts Will Shape Future Buybacks And Sentiment
Narrative Update: Murphy USA The analyst price target for Murphy USA has shifted from $466.00 to $558.00. Analysts attribute this change to updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, along with a slightly lower discount rate and a series of recent target hikes and rating changes across the Street.
Narrative Update • May 04
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Cap Future Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted the Murphy USA price target from about $340 to roughly $407. The change reflects updated views on slightly higher projected profit margins, a modest adjustment to revenue growth, a higher assumed future P/E, and a small change in discount rate informed by recent Street research.Narrative Update • Apr 20
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Exposure Will Support Future Buybacks And Mixed Sentiment
Murphy USA's analyst price target has shifted from $436.25 to $466.00 as analysts point to recent research updates that adjust assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show both optimistic and cautious views on Murphy USA, with several firms adjusting price targets up or down as they revisit key assumptions around earnings power and valuation multiples.Narrative Update • Apr 06
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Dependence Will Likely Pressure Future Earnings Power
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Murphy USA in a mixed fashion, with several firms cutting and others raising their views as they factor in a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly higher revenue growth assumption, a reduced profit margin outlook, and a higher future P/E. Their internal fair value estimate remains steady at $340.Narrative Update • Mar 23
MUSA: Low Cost Fuel Model And Buybacks Will Drive Future Returns
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Murphy USA by a few tens of dollars in recent weeks, reflecting a mix of reduced expectations tied to softer fuel and nicotine trends, along with at least one higher target that leans on the company’s low cost fuel model and Walmart adjacency. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy USA has been mixed, but it includes several constructive signals that bullish analysts highlight when they look past near term fuel and nicotine headwinds.Narrative Update • Mar 08
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Restrain Future Upside
Analysts have recently trimmed their average price targets on Murphy USA by a wide range, roughly $20 to $55 in several cases, citing more cautious views on fuel price volatility, cigarette volumes, and near term earnings power, even as some still see room for upside reflected in prior target increases. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a clear shift toward more cautious pricing of Murphy USA, with several bearish analysts trimming targets by wide margins after previously setting higher bars for the stock.Narrative Update • Feb 22
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Dependence Will Likely Cap Future Share Returns
Analysts trimmed their average price targets for Murphy USA by a wide range, with cuts of $22 to $55 and a new $405 target emerging, as they reassessed fuel demand, pricing volatility and cigarette volume headwinds, along with a modest shift to slightly lower growth and discount rate assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Murphy USA has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and highlighting risks tied to the company’s fuel heavy and nicotine heavy mix.Narrative Update • Feb 08
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Exposure Will Support Long Term Buyback Upside
Analysts nudged their fair value estimate for Murphy USA up from about US$423 to roughly US$436. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly lower growth, a modestly higher discount rate, small changes in margin expectations and a lower future P/E, alongside mixed recent price target moves across the Street.Narrative Update • Jan 25
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Likely Restrain Future Share Returns
The analyst price target for Murphy USA has been reset to $340 from $350 as analysts balance higher assumed revenue growth and a lower future P/E with a higher discount rate and slightly softer profit margin expectations, alongside mixed recent research that includes both higher external price targets and a new Underperform rating. Analyst Commentary Street research around Murphy USA has been mixed, with several firms lifting their price targets while one major bank initiated coverage with a more cautious stance.Narrative Update • Jan 11
MUSA: Fuel And Nicotine Reliance Will Temper Benefits From Buybacks And Leadership Shift
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Murphy USA to US$405, citing concerns that low gas prices, muted fuel price swings, softer cigarette volumes, and a relatively modest foodservice offering could limit upside compared with peers, given the company’s heavy exposure to fuel and nicotine spending by financially stretched lower income consumers. Analyst Commentary Street research on Murphy USA centers on how its fuel centric, value focused model lines up with current consumer pressures and what that could mean for execution and valuation at the current US$405 price target.Analysis Article • Jan 06
Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Narrative Update • Dec 23
MUSA: Share Repurchases And Leadership Transition Will Drive Strong Shareholder Returns
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Murphy USA from 600 dollars to 550 dollars, citing a slightly higher discount rate and modestly lower long term margin and valuation assumptions that more than offset stronger projected revenue growth. What's in the News Authorized a new share repurchase program of up to 2 billion dollars through December 31, 2030, supporting the company’s long term capital allocation strategy (company announcement) Completed repurchase of 2.63 million shares, about 13.04% of shares outstanding, under the buyback program launched in May 2023.Narrative Update • Dec 09
MUSA: Leadership Transition And Expanded Buybacks Will Support Steady Shareholder Returns
Analysts have slightly raised their price target on Murphy USA by $0.00 to reflect marginally higher discount rate assumptions and a modestly richer future P E multiple, while keeping fair value estimates effectively unchanged. What's in the News The Board has named current Chief Operating Officer Mindy K.Narrative Update • Nov 25
MUSA: Leadership Changes and $2 Billion Buybacks Will Drive Shareholder Value
Analysts have maintained their price target for Murphy USA at $423.29. They cited minor shifts in underlying financial assumptions that did not substantially alter their overall outlook for the company.Narrative Update • Nov 07
MUSA: Leadership Transition And Expanded Buybacks Will Drive Stronger Returns
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Murphy USA, lowering it from $431.71 to $423.29. This revision is due to increased discount rates and minor adjustments in profit margin forecasts, even though there are expectations for stronger revenue growth.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Leadership Changes And Share Buybacks Will Drive Suburban Expansion Plans Forward
Analysts have revised their price target for Murphy USA slightly downward from $439.57 to $431.71. This adjustment reflects ongoing changes to growth and margin expectations.Narrative Update • Oct 10
Fuel Convenience Expansion Will Support Future Suburban Growth
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for Murphy USA from $446.71 to $439.57, citing slight adjustments in growth and profitability assumptions. What's in the News The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.53 per share, or $2.12 annualized.Analysis Article • Sep 14
Is Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA) Using Too Much Debt?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Jul 25
Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA)
With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 19x in the United States, you could be forgiven for...Seeking Alpha • Jan 29
Murphy USA Still Makes Sense If We Factor Future Growth Plans Into The Mix
Summary Murphy USA has shown strong performance since my initial 'buy' rating in September 2022, outperforming the S&P 500 with a 69.4% gain. Despite recent revenue and profit declines, operational stability is evident with increased fuel sales volume and merchandise sales. Management projects significant profitability growth by 2028, with potential annualized upside of 13.9% to 15.1%, outpacing the S&P 500. Maintaining a 'buy' rating due to the company's fundamental strength and future growth prospects, despite potential short-term bumps. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Murphy USA makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 17,299 | 554 | 296 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 17,018 | 471 | 298 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 17,008 | 471 | 285 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 17,149 | 491 | 288 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 17,598 | 490 | 295 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 17,909 | 503 | 295 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 18,275 | 510 | 301 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 18,854 | 529 | 300 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 18,991 | 517 | 299 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 19,238 | 557 | 296 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 19,564 | 525 | 315 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 19,973 | 576 | 307 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 21,194 | 627 | 299 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 21,266 | 673 | 285 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 20,682 | 664 | 254 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 19,136 | 549 | 247 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 16,856 | 494 | 242 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 15,319 | 397 | 237 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 13,480 | 349 | 217 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 11,793 | 312 | 216 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 9,861 | 352 | 198 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 9,504 | 386 | 188 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 10,082 | 373 | 185 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 10,849 | 375 | 167 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 12,152 | 239 | 164 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 12,101 | 155 | 159 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 12,150 | 185 | 150 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 12,315 | 161 | 143 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 12,375 | 180 | 140 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 12,524 | 214 | 136 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 12,376 | 261 | 142 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 11,800 | 284 | 141 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 11,144 | 288 | 138 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 10,854 | 245 | 141 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 10,534 | 164 | 129 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 10,324 | 142 | 128 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 10,135 | 133 | 129 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 9,633 | 222 | 123 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 9,492 | 207 | 127 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 9,824 | 221 | 129 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 10,291 | 200 | 130 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 10,731 | 138 | 129 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 11,365 | 203 | 130 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: MUSA has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: MUSA's current net profit margins (3.2%) are higher than last year (2.8%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MUSA's earnings have grown by 3.6% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: MUSA's earnings growth over the past year (13.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (3.6% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: MUSA earnings growth over the past year (13.1%) exceeded the Specialty Retail industry 0.2%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: Whilst MUSA's Return on Equity (84.06%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/05 01:56 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/02 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Murphy USA Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Lisa Lewandowski | BofA Global Research |
| Daniel Guglielmo | Capital One Securities, Inc. |
| Bonnie Herzog | Goldman Sachs |