Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Murphy USA Inc.'s (NYSE:MUSA) Shares

Murphy USA Inc.'s (NYSE:MUSA) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

There hasn't been much to differentiate Murphy USA's and the market's earnings growth lately. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this modest earnings performance will accelerate. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Murphy USA would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. Although pleasingly EPS has lifted 94% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.8% each year during the coming three years according to the seven analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 11% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's alarming that Murphy USA's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Murphy USA currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Murphy USA is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.