CarMax, Inc.

NYSE:KMX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.1b

CarMax Valuation

Is KMX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KMX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KMX ($78.03) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($37.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KMX is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KMX?

Key metric: As KMX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KMX. This is calculated by dividing KMX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KMX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29x
EarningsUS$417.52m
Market CapUS$12.12b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KMX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KMX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.7x
PAG Penske Automotive Group
12.3x2.6%US$10.8b
MUSA Murphy USA
21x7.2%US$10.7b
LAD Lithia Motors
12.4x13.3%US$9.9b
AN AutoNation
9x7.2%US$6.6b
KMX CarMax
29x19.4%US$12.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x) compared to the peer average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KMX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SSOK Sunstock
1.8xn/aUS$771.79k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.08xn/aUS$168.03k
FTCH.Q Farfetch
n/an/aUS$395.00
EXPR.Q Express
0.00006xn/aUS$374.00
No more companies available in this PE range
KMX 29.0xIndustry Avg. 16.4xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KMX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KMX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29x
Fair PE Ratio19.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KMX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KMX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$78.03
US$82.22
+5.4%
20.6%US$123.00US$58.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$72.30
US$82.08
+13.5%
20.7%US$123.00US$58.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$78.17
US$81.88
+4.7%
21.0%US$123.00US$50.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$84.55
US$79.56
-5.9%
23.7%US$123.00US$50.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$81.60
US$79.56
-2.5%
23.7%US$123.00US$50.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$71.21
US$78.73
+10.6%
24.4%US$123.00US$50.00n/a15
Jun ’25US$70.26
US$79.63
+13.3%
24.0%US$125.00US$48.00n/a16
May ’25US$67.21
US$80.35
+19.5%
23.4%US$125.00US$48.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$85.94
US$84.34
-1.9%
22.9%US$135.00US$50.00n/a17
Mar ’25US$79.30
US$82.11
+3.5%
24.2%US$135.00US$50.00n/a15
Feb ’25US$72.84
US$80.98
+11.2%
24.8%US$135.00US$44.00n/a16
Jan ’25US$76.74
US$79.91
+4.1%
25.6%US$135.00US$44.00n/a16
Dec ’24US$67.39
US$78.03
+15.8%
27.3%US$135.00US$44.00n/a15
Nov ’24US$61.49
US$79.29
+29.0%
26.6%US$135.00US$44.00US$72.3015
Oct ’24US$70.73
US$80.60
+14.0%
25.5%US$135.00US$44.00US$78.1715
Sep ’24US$83.58
US$81.47
-2.5%
25.5%US$135.00US$44.00US$84.5515
Aug ’24US$84.08
US$81.40
-3.2%
25.3%US$135.00US$44.00US$81.6015
Jul ’24US$83.70
US$80.27
-4.1%
25.7%US$135.00US$44.00US$71.2115
Jun ’24US$71.81
US$72.88
+1.5%
29.7%US$141.00US$40.00US$70.2616
May ’24US$70.48
US$72.88
+3.4%
29.7%US$141.00US$40.00US$67.2116
Apr ’24US$64.28
US$66.00
+2.7%
34.1%US$141.00US$34.00US$85.9416
Mar ’24US$68.76
US$66.88
-2.7%
35.1%US$141.00US$26.00US$79.3016
Feb ’24US$75.84
US$66.80
-11.9%
36.3%US$141.00US$26.00US$72.8415
Jan ’24US$60.89
US$67.20
+10.4%
35.3%US$141.00US$26.00US$76.7415
Dec ’23US$69.10
US$80.60
+16.6%
30.7%US$155.00US$48.00US$67.3915
Nov ’23US$64.35
US$81.60
+26.8%
29.6%US$155.00US$48.00US$61.4915

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

B&M European Value Retail

UK£3.8b

Operates general merchandise and grocery stores.

BMRP.F

UK£4.94

7D

3.0%

1Y

-23.8%

OneWater Marine

US$380.5m

Operates as a recreational boat retailer in the United States.

ONEW

US$21.23

7D

-16.6%

1Y

-16.9%

Inchcape

UK£3.1b

Operates as an automotive distributor and retailer.

IHCP.F

UK£9.26

7D

0%

1Y

n/a