Valvoline Inc.

NYSE:VVV Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.7b

Valvoline Valuation

Is VVV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VVV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VVV ($36.55) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($25.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VVV is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VVV?

Key metric: As VVV is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VVV. This is calculated by dividing VVV's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VVV's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.9x
EarningsUS$214.50m
Market CapUS$4.69b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VVV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VVV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
ABG Asbury Automotive Group
13.5x20.3%US$4.8b
GPI Group 1 Automotive
10.9x7.8%US$5.5b
AN AutoNation
9.3x6.9%US$6.7b
LAD Lithia Motors
12x13.4%US$9.6b
VVV Valvoline
21.9x4.6%US$4.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VVV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VVV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$13.93m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.08xn/aUS$144.03k
EXPR.Q Express
0.000004xn/aUS$749.00
VVV 21.9xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VVV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VVV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VVV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.9x
Fair PE Ratio13.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VVV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VVV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$36.55
US$43.62
+19.3%
7.8%US$49.00US$37.00n/a13
Dec ’25US$39.71
US$43.75
+10.2%
8.0%US$49.00US$37.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$40.37
US$46.50
+15.2%
7.2%US$52.00US$40.00n/a12
Oct ’25US$41.39
US$45.91
+10.9%
6.5%US$50.00US$40.00n/a11
Sep ’25US$42.20
US$45.91
+8.8%
6.5%US$50.00US$40.00n/a11
Aug ’25US$45.99
US$47.60
+3.5%
8.1%US$54.00US$40.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$42.08
US$46.70
+11.0%
7.0%US$50.00US$40.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$40.60
US$46.44
+14.4%
7.2%US$50.00US$40.00n/a9
May ’25US$42.50
US$44.91
+5.7%
7.8%US$50.00US$39.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$44.77
US$44.67
-0.2%
8.0%US$50.00US$39.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$43.17
US$41.63
-3.6%
7.7%US$46.00US$36.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$36.96
US$40.56
+9.7%
8.6%US$46.00US$36.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$37.58
US$39.78
+5.8%
8.5%US$46.00US$36.00n/a9
Dec ’24US$34.94
US$39.78
+13.8%
8.5%US$46.00US$36.00US$39.719
Nov ’24US$29.67
US$40.56
+36.7%
9.5%US$46.00US$35.00US$40.379
Oct ’24US$32.24
US$41.33
+28.2%
9.5%US$47.00US$36.00US$41.399
Sep ’24US$34.72
US$41.86
+20.6%
9.8%US$47.00US$36.00US$42.207
Aug ’24US$37.50
US$42.43
+13.1%
5.6%US$46.00US$39.00US$45.997
Jul ’24US$37.51
US$41.43
+10.4%
5.0%US$45.00US$39.00US$42.087
Jun ’24US$38.83
US$41.50
+6.9%
3.0%US$43.00US$40.00US$40.606
May ’24US$35.02
US$39.43
+12.6%
5.9%US$42.00US$35.00US$42.507
Apr ’24US$34.94
US$39.43
+12.8%
5.9%US$42.00US$35.00US$44.777
Mar ’24US$34.37
US$39.29
+14.3%
5.9%US$42.00US$35.00US$43.177
Feb ’24US$36.63
US$38.71
+5.7%
4.1%US$41.00US$36.00US$36.967
Jan ’24US$32.65
US$38.71
+18.6%
4.1%US$41.00US$36.00US$37.587
Dec ’23US$32.76
US$38.67
+18.0%
4.4%US$41.00US$36.00US$34.946

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 04:09
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Valvoline Inc. is covered by 27 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Justin KleberBaird
Peter BenedictBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research