Lithia Motors, Inc.

NYSE:LAD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.9b

Lithia Motors Valuation

Is LAD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LAD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LAD ($357) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($657.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LAD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LAD?

Key metric: As LAD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LAD. This is calculated by dividing LAD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LAD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.9x
EarningsUS$799.30m
Market CapUS$9.88b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LAD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LAD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.3x
PAG Penske Automotive Group
12.4x2.7%US$11.0b
MUSA Murphy USA
20.7x7.2%US$10.9b
GPI Group 1 Automotive
10.7x7.8%US$5.5b
AN AutoNation
9.4x6.9%US$6.8b
LAD Lithia Motors
11.9x13.4%US$9.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LAD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the peer average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LAD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2.1xn/aUS$15.33m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.09xn/aUS$144.03k
EXPR.Q Express
0.000004xn/aUS$749.00
LAD 11.9xIndustry Avg. 16.4xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LAD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LAD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LAD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.9x
Fair PE Ratio17.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LAD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LAD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$357.00
US$395.07
+10.7%
8.4%US$450.00US$330.00n/a15
Dec ’25US$386.90
US$395.07
+2.1%
8.4%US$450.00US$330.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$337.81
US$380.87
+12.7%
8.3%US$424.00US$310.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$317.27
US$352.20
+11.0%
8.6%US$424.00US$302.00n/a15
Sep ’25US$301.08
US$338.43
+12.4%
13.8%US$424.00US$225.00n/a14
Aug ’25US$295.44
US$330.57
+11.9%
15.8%US$445.00US$225.00n/a14
Jul ’25US$252.18
US$318.50
+26.3%
17.0%US$445.00US$225.00n/a14
Jun ’25US$253.14
US$320.64
+26.7%
18.0%US$445.00US$225.00n/a14
May ’25US$254.16
US$323.70
+27.4%
16.9%US$445.00US$230.00n/a15
Apr ’25US$295.77
US$349.10
+18.0%
16.4%US$500.00US$230.00n/a15
Mar ’25US$299.70
US$349.29
+16.5%
17.0%US$500.00US$230.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$304.46
US$353.20
+16.0%
18.3%US$500.00US$220.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$329.28
US$341.08
+3.6%
21.0%US$500.00US$220.00n/a13
Dec ’24US$277.59
US$343.92
+23.9%
20.8%US$500.00US$220.00US$386.9013
Nov ’24US$246.35
US$345.46
+40.2%
21.1%US$500.00US$220.00US$337.8113
Oct ’24US$295.33
US$366.85
+24.2%
17.2%US$500.00US$220.00US$317.2713
Sep ’24US$316.14
US$366.71
+16.0%
16.7%US$500.00US$220.00US$301.0814
Aug ’24US$306.15
US$365.14
+19.3%
17.9%US$500.00US$198.00US$295.4414
Jul ’24US$304.11
US$307.64
+1.2%
22.9%US$507.00US$198.00US$252.1814
Jun ’24US$235.17
US$307.64
+30.8%
22.9%US$507.00US$198.00US$253.1414
May ’24US$227.16
US$307.64
+35.4%
22.9%US$507.00US$198.00US$254.1614
Apr ’24US$228.93
US$314.36
+37.3%
21.8%US$507.00US$198.00US$295.7714
Mar ’24US$256.94
US$311.50
+21.2%
19.5%US$467.00US$198.00US$299.7014
Feb ’24US$278.10
US$304.54
+9.5%
21.3%US$467.00US$198.00US$304.4613
Jan ’24US$204.74
US$328.57
+60.5%
28.7%US$540.00US$200.00US$329.2814
Dec ’23US$235.34
US$335.00
+42.3%
28.3%US$540.00US$200.00US$277.5913

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 22:40
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lithia Motors, Inc. is covered by 31 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Andrew FungBerenberg
Christopher BottiglieriBNP Paribas Exane