Valvoline Inc.

NYSE:VVV Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.4b

Valvoline Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Valvoline is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 49.4% and 11.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 49.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 49.3% in 3 years.

Key information

49.4%

Earnings growth rate

49.39%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth9.8%
Revenue growth rate11.7%
Future return on equity49.29%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated07 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • 14h

Valvoline: The Growth Story Stands Undisrupted

Summary Valvoline Inc. reported strong Q2 results. The report was the first full quarter with Breeze Autocare included. VVV's same-store momentum accelerated, driven by strategic initiatives and a favorable macroeconomic environment in the quarter. The earnings outlook was raised despite the Iran conflict's impact on VVV through higher oil prices. Aggressive new store investments continue to create growth. I estimate store openings to create upside in VVV stock's valuation. A base-scenario DCF model suggests 58% upside to $57.0. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 03

VVV: Future Upside Will Depend On Execution As Mixed Ratings Support Undervaluation

Valvoline's updated analyst price target has been revised by $0.00 to $41.73. Analysts are balancing a modestly higher discount rate and slightly adjusted revenue and margin expectations with a steady long term P/E assumption, which is supported by recent target increases from several firms and a mixed set of rating changes.
Narrative Update • Apr 18

VVV: Future Upside Will Rely On Execution As Buybacks Pause

Analysts have raised the Valvoline price target by $6, supported by a series of recent target increases from multiple firms, alongside one downgrade that reflects more mixed views on the stock's setup. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Valvoline reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and one high profile downgrade reinforcing that the setup is not one sided.
Narrative Update • Apr 03

VVV: Future Upside Will Depend On Execution As Buybacks Program Concludes

Analysts have raised their price target for Valvoline slightly to $41.73 from $41.60, reflecting updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following a series of recent target changes and rating revisions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Valvoline reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and at least one high profile downgrade balancing out a series of upward revisions.
Narrative Update • Mar 20

VVV: Future Upside Will Rely On Same Store Execution And Buybacks

Analysts have nudged their average Valvoline price target higher by a few dollars to $41.60. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rate, profit margin and future P/E that keep the fair value estimate steady despite a recent mix of target hikes and a downgrade.
Narrative Update • Mar 06

VVV: Same Store Execution And Buybacks Will Drive Future Upside Potential

The analyst price target for Valvoline has been raised by $6. Analysts point to a series of recent target increases from multiple firms, as well as updated assumptions for discount rate and forward P/E, as key drivers behind the change.
Narrative Update • Feb 20

VVV: Same Store Sales And Buybacks Will Shape Future Margin Path

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Valvoline up from $40.53 to $41.60, reflecting higher Street price targets and updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Street research on Valvoline has been active, with several firms adjusting their price targets and at least one major bank changing its rating.
Narrative Update • Feb 06

VVV: Same Store Sales And Breeze Integration Will Shape Future Margin Path

Analysts have modestly lifted their price target on Valvoline to about $40.53 from $38.93, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, improving profit margins, and a slightly lower discount rate that are only partly offset by a more conservative future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Valvoline shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets in both directions as they update models for acquisitions, guidance, and margin expectations.
Narrative Update • Jan 22

VVV: Same Store Sales And Breeze Execution Will Support Future Margin Recovery

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Valvoline slightly lower, trimming it by about $0.13 to roughly $38.93 as they factor in reduced 2026 earnings expectations, questions around margin impact from the Breeze Autocare acquisition, and higher interest expense. Analyst Commentary Street research on Valvoline is mixed, with most firms trimming price targets but differing on how they weigh same store sales, earnings guidance, the Breeze Autocare deal, and balance sheet impact.
Narrative Update • Jan 08

VVV: Breeze Integration And Same Store Sales Will Support Margin Recovery

Narrative Update on Valvoline Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Valvoline to about $39. This reflects recent cuts to individual targets as they factor in solid same store sales, questions around Breeze Autocare's margin impact, higher interest expense, and updated long term guidance.
Narrative Update • Dec 17

VVV: Shares Will Benefit From Breeze Integration Synergies And Margin Recovery Over Time

Analysts have modestly reduced their consolidated price target for Valvoline by about $0.38 per share to reflect lower valuation multiples and uncertainty around margin contribution, interest expense, and integration risk from the Breeze Autocare acquisition, even though underlying revenue growth and profitability assumptions are moving higher. Analyst Commentary Analyst reactions to Valvoline's recent results and the Breeze Autocare acquisition reflect a mix of optimism on growth and caution on execution, leading to price target reductions but largely unchanged positive ratings from several firms.
Narrative Update • Dec 03

VVV: Shares Will Benefit From Post Acquisition Margin Recovery And Interest Headwinds Easing

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Valvoline by about $4 per share to roughly $39, reflecting expectations for faster top line growth but somewhat lower margins and profitability as the Breeze Autocare acquisition and higher interest expense weigh on earnings power. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts continue to see upside in Valvoline despite the recent round of price target cuts, emphasizing that the core business is still capable of generating attractive same store sales growth and accelerating earnings once current headwinds subside.
Analysis Article • Nov 28

Valvoline's (NYSE:VVV) Shareholders May Want To Dig Deeper Than Statutory Profit

Valvoline Inc.'s ( NYSE:VVV ) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. We think this is due...
Narrative Update • Nov 19

VVV: Shares Will Benefit From Easing Headwinds And Refranchising Transition Completion

Narrative Update: Analyst Price Target Change for Valvoline Valvoline's updated analyst price target has been revised slightly downward from $44.13 to $43.08 per share. This change reflects analysts' views that, while recent operational headwinds are easing and growth is anticipated to reaccelerate in FY26 and FY27, near-term profitability is modestly softer than previously expected.
Analysis Article • Oct 22

Why Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) Could Be Worth Watching

Valvoline Inc. ( NYSE:VVV ), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial...
Analysis Article • Sep 30

These 4 Measures Indicate That Valvoline (NYSE:VVV) Is Using Debt Extensively

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Analysis Article • Sep 09

Valvoline Inc.'s (NYSE:VVV) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

There wouldn't be many who think Valvoline Inc.'s ( NYSE:VVV ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 18.3x is worth a...
Narrative Update • Sep 09

Store Expansion And EV Risk Will Redefine Auto Maintenance

Valvoline’s price target was raised to $44.12 as analysts anticipate earnings and EBITDA growth to accelerate from FY26 onward following the completion of re-franchising and tech investments, increasing confidence in the company’s strategic trajectory and near-term upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts note that Valvoline's recent share price performance has been hampered by re-franchising transactions and elevated SG&A investments related to technology modernization.
Analysis Article • Jul 13

Should You Think About Buying Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) Now?

While Valvoline Inc. ( NYSE:VVV ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a significant share price rise...
Analysis Article • May 20

Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Valvoline (NYSE:VVV)

Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Valvoline Inc.'s ( NYSE:VVV ) stock hasn't moved much. Our...
Analysis Article • May 12

Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV)

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 17x in the United States, you could be forgiven for...
Analysis Article • Apr 24

Is Valvoline (NYSE:VVV) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Apr 06

What Is Valvoline Inc.'s (NYSE:VVV) Share Price Doing?

While Valvoline Inc. ( NYSE:VVV ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share price...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 21

Valvoline: Gearing Up, Pursuing Continued Growth

Summary Valvoline Inc.'s transition to a faster-growing business post-Global Products sale has led to higher valuations, but I remain cautious due to debt and long-term positioning concerns. The company has focused on buybacks but is now making a significant acquisition of Breeze Autocare to drive physical growth, raising leverage ratios. Despite solid Q1 2025 results and a $625 million acquisition, Valvoline's valuation at 22-23 times forward earnings remains demanding, with positioning questions. I find the recent deal relatively compelling, but overall valuations and leverage levels lead me to maintain a cautious stance on VVV stock's investment appeal. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Feb 11

Here's Why We Think Valvoline (NYSE:VVV) Is Well Worth Watching

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...
Analysis Article • Jan 28

What Valvoline Inc.'s (NYSE:VVV) P/E Is Not Telling You

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.5x Valvoline Inc. ( NYSE:VVV ) may be sending bearish signals at the...
Analysis Article • Jan 13

Is Valvoline (NYSE:VVV) Using Too Much Debt?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Analysis Article • Dec 26

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV)?

Valvoline Inc. ( NYSE:VVV ), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a...
Seeking Alpha • Nov 24

Valvoline Stock: Growth Engine Not Fully Lubricated

Summary Valvoline's transition to a smaller, faster-growing business, has been awarded premium valuations. Despite a 12% increase in 2024 sales, it is the softer 2025 outlook which makes me cautious. Shares have dropped to $38, trading at 23-24 times forward earnings, reflecting demanding expectations amidst long-term business challenges. I remain cautious, seeing no reason to reconsider unless valuations drop significantly. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Nov 07

Calculating The Fair Value Of Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV)

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Valvoline fair value estimate is US$41.22 Valvoline's US$42.91...
Analysis Article • Oct 16

Here's What's Concerning About Valvoline's (NYSE:VVV) Returns On Capital

If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. One common approach is to try and...
Analysis Article • Sep 25

Does Valvoline (NYSE:VVV) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...
Analysis Article • Sep 04

Getting In Cheap On Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) Is Unlikely

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.4x Valvoline Inc. ( NYSE:VVV ) may be sending bearish signals at the...
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New Narrative • Sep 02

Calculated Franchise Expansion And Innovative Service Offerings Propel Revenue Growth And Shareholder Value

Focused on expanding both service locations and non-oil-change offerings, directly enhancing revenue growth and increasing average ticket sizes.
Analysis Article • Aug 14

Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Valvoline's (NYSE:VVV) Earnings

Last week's profit announcement from Valvoline Inc. ( NYSE:VVV ) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 08

Valvoline Q3: Running Strong But Facing Rough Roads Ahead

Summary Valvoline Inc. missed Non-GAAP EPS by $0.02, revenue was $3.75 million under the mark. Despite growth moves, Valvoline faces hurdles with high valuation, rising costs, and a shaky economy. Valvoline's recent financials show strong profits, but future projections indicate potential earnings decline. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jul 31

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV)

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Valvoline fair value estimate is US$44.82 Valvoline's US$45.16...
Analysis Article • Jul 12

Returns On Capital At Valvoline (NYSE:VVV) Paint A Concerning Picture

If you're looking at a mature business that's past the growth phase, what are some of the underlying trends that pop...
Analysis Article • Jun 17

Is It Time To Consider Buying Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV)?

While Valvoline Inc. ( NYSE:VVV ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of attention from a...
Seeking Alpha • May 23

Valvoline: Premium Oil, Premium Valuations

Summary Valvoline has seen lower earnings power following the sale of its Global Products business, which has been expected. Shares of Valvoline have seen gains, but mostly due to increased valuation multiples rather than improved operating performance. While the near term growth profile is good, I fear the long-term viability of the business model in light of premium valuation multiples. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Apr 28

Valvoline (NYSE:VVV) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Analysis Article • Apr 10

Valvoline Inc.'s (NYSE:VVV) Popularity With Investors Is Clear

Valvoline Inc.'s ( NYSE:VVV ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.9x might make it look like a strong sell right...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:VVV - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
9/30/20282,4973341234035
9/30/20272,26925613842414
9/30/20262,0521397936313
3/31/20261,85896100369N/A
12/31/20251,7588958321N/A
9/30/20251,71021538297N/A
6/30/20251,69227845277N/A
3/31/20251,67427023265N/A
12/31/20241,66027551286N/A
9/30/20241,61921541265N/A
6/30/20241,574200-36171N/A
3/31/20241,528217-251-63N/A
12/31/20231,484206-195-12N/A
9/30/20231,444199-221-41N/A
6/30/20231,389137-12445N/A
3/31/20231,330112145299N/A
12/31/20221,282102104244N/A
9/30/20221,236109152284N/A
6/30/2022-20845213299N/A
3/31/2022267102223310N/A
12/31/2021672147257357N/A
9/30/20211,037200301404N/A
6/30/20212,798374234397N/A
3/31/20212,522336240408N/A
12/31/20202,399331234392N/A
9/30/202072770278372N/A
6/30/20202,330222253382N/A
3/31/20202,427228228345N/A
12/31/20192,440228N/A299N/A
9/30/20192,390208N/A325N/A
6/30/20192,355226N/A353N/A
3/31/20192,319225N/A346N/A
12/31/20182,297229N/A385N/A
9/30/20182,285166N/A320N/A
6/30/20182,238226N/A-106N/A
3/31/20182,195218N/A-92N/A
12/31/20172,140222N/A-198N/A
9/30/20172,084304N/A-130N/A
6/30/20172,031264N/A282N/A
3/31/20171,996283N/A290N/A
12/31/20161,962280N/A359N/A
9/30/20161,929273N/A311N/A
6/30/20161,919241N/A248N/A
3/31/20161,930239N/A260N/A
12/31/20151,936216N/A290N/A
9/30/20151,967196N/A330N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: VVV's forecast earnings growth (49.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: VVV's earnings (49.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: VVV's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: VVV's revenue (11.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: VVV's revenue (11.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: VVV's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (49.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 15:19
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Valvoline Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Craig KennisonBaird
Peter BenedictBaird
Justin KleberBaird