Update shared on09 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.15%Valvoline’s price target was raised to $44.12 as analysts anticipate earnings and EBITDA growth to accelerate from FY26 onward following the completion of re-franchising and tech investments, increasing confidence in the company’s strategic trajectory and near-term upside.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts note that Valvoline's recent share price performance has been hampered by re-franchising transactions and elevated SG&A investments related to technology modernization.
- The company is nearing the completion of these strategic initiatives, with FY25 marking the endpoint for most of these headwinds.
- Analysts expect a reacceleration in EPS and EBITDA growth beginning in FY26 and continuing into FY27, as operational hurdles subside.
- Valvoline shares are considered to present an attractive entry point at current levels due to the anticipated earnings recovery.
- Increased confidence in management's strategic execution and earnings visibility has prompted upward price target revisions.
What's in the News
- Valvoline completed the repurchase of 1,962,296 shares for $75 million under its buyback program, with no shares repurchased in the most recent quarter.
- The company raised full-year 2025 net revenue guidance to $1.69 billion–$1.72 billion from the prior range of $1.67 billion–$1.73 billion.
- Valvoline was added to multiple Russell value and defensive indices, including the Russell 1000 Value, Russell 3000 Value, Russell Midcap Value, Russell 2500 Value, and associated defensive and growth-defensive benchmarks.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Valvoline
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $43.62 to $44.12.
- The Net Profit Margin for Valvoline has significantly risen from 8.77% to 12.97%.
- The Future P/E for Valvoline has significantly fallen from 34.38x to 23.49x.
Disclaimer
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