Why Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV) Could Be Worth Watching

Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the last few months, increasing to US$40.67 at one point, and dropping to the lows of US$33.27. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Valvoline's current trading price of US$35.03 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Valvoline’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

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What Is Valvoline Worth?

According to our valuation model, the stock is currently overvalued by about 25%, trading at US$35.03 compared to our intrinsic value of $28.05. This means that the opportunity to buy Valvoline at a good price has disappeared! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that Valvoline’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

View our latest analysis for Valvoline

What does the future of Valvoline look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. However, with a relatively muted profit growth of 2.6% expected over the next couple of years, growth doesn’t seem like a key driver for a buy decision for Valvoline, at least in the short term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in VVV’s future outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe VVV should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on VVV for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Valvoline you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Valvoline, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.