CarMax, Inc.

NYSE:KMX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.5b

CarMax Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

CarMax's revenue is forecast to decline at 0.7% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 23.3% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 23.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.4% in 3 years.

Key information

23.3%

Earnings growth rate

23.50%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth9.6%
Revenue growth rate-0.7%
Future return on equity7.40%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated01 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

KMX: Starboard Turnaround Push And New Leadership Will Drive Re Rating Potential

The updated analyst price target on CarMax reflects a modest reset, with a roughly $2 swing in recent targets as analysts factor in softer revenue growth assumptions, lower profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple based on the latest research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on CarMax shows a mix of views, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets while others stay more cautious on the shares.

KMX: Starboard Turnaround Push And AI Rollout Will Drive Re Rating Potential

Analysts have adjusted the CarMax fair value estimate upward by about $1.73 to $77.89, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue trends, profit margins, and future P/E expectations following a mix of recent target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on CarMax shows a mix of views, with several bullish analysts adjusting price targets upward while a few take a more cautious stance.

CarMax: Patience Can Be Rewarded After Cautious 2027 Guidance

Apr 14

KMX: Activist Demands And Execution Risks Will Limit Future Share Returns

Analysts have lifted their price targets on CarMax by mid single digit dollar amounts, citing refreshed models following the recent investor meeting and updated views on the company's earnings power, as reflected in slightly adjusted revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around CarMax has centered on refreshed models following the investor meeting, with several firms revising their price targets by mid single digit dollar amounts.

KMX: Activist Pressure And Execution Risks Will Restrain Future Share Returns

Analysts have nudged CarMax price targets higher, with recent moves such as Evercore ISI raising its target to $39 from $37 and Baird moving to $48 from $44, reflecting updated views on the company following its investor meeting and other research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on CarMax show a mix of support and caution.

KMX: Refreshed Investor Day Plan And AI Initiatives Will Drive Re Rating Potential

Narrative Update on CarMax Analysts have lifted their price target for CarMax by $4 to $48, citing refreshed models after the recent investor meeting, improved revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a lower expected future P/E multiple in their updated views. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more constructive tone on CarMax, with several bullish analysts lifting their price targets after reviewing the latest investor meeting materials and updating their models.

KMX: Refreshed Investor Day Framework Will Drive Re Rating Potential

Analysts have raised their CarMax price targets, with recent updates moving one estimate to $48 from $44 and others higher by $2 to $4. They cited refreshed models following the company’s investor meeting and modestly adjusted expectations for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E.

KMX: Mixed Sector Backdrop And Weaker Margins Will Pressure Future Returns

Narrative Update Analysts have lifted their price targets on CarMax by a few dollars, citing mixed sector fundamentals, questions around the company’s direction, and lower assumptions for fair value, revenue growth, margins, and future P/E, which together support a more conservative but still constructive outlook. Analyst Commentary Street research around CarMax has centered on how the business fits into a mixed auto retail sector, with some firms taking a cautious stance even as they fine tune price targets.

KMX: Digital Auction Execution Will Drive Re Rating Potential Despite Sector Caution

The analyst price target for CarMax has been cut from about US$114 to roughly US$75, with analysts citing a reduced revenue growth outlook, a lower assumed future P/E multiple, and ongoing uncertainty around the company’s strategy. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage highlights that views on CarMax are cautious overall, but there are still a few angles that more optimistic investors might focus on.

CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Soars 27% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward

Jan 18
CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Soars 27% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward

KMX: Future Returns Will Hinge On Credit Risk And Execution Clarity

Narrative Update: CarMax Analyst Price Target Shift Analysts have reduced their average CarMax price target by $32, from $78 to $46. This reflects fresh concerns around the company's strategy and credit risk, even as they point to mixed but resilient sector fundamentals and updated earnings guidance.

KMX: Future Returns Will Depend On Credit Normalization Amid Execution Concerns

Analysts have trimmed their CarMax fair value estimate by about $1.50 per share to roughly $38, reflecting a series of reduced Street price targets in the $40s and $50s as concerns mount over slowing unit growth, weaker margins, and uncertainty around the company’s strategic execution. Analyst Commentary Street research on CarMax has shifted decisively toward caution, but views are not uniformly negative.

KMX: Future Recovery Will Hinge On Loan Loss And Credit Normalization

Analysts have trimmed their CarMax price target slightly, reflecting a modest reset in fair value to about $40 per share as they factor in weaker unit trends, persistent credit headwinds, and increased uncertainty around the company’s strategic execution. Analyst Commentary Research coverage around CarMax has tilted more cautious in recent weeks, with multiple firms cutting price targets and downgrading ratings as they recalibrate expectations for growth, margins, and credit performance.

KMX: Recovery Will Depend On Resolution Of Loan Loss Headwinds

CarMax's analyst price target has been reduced significantly from approximately $55 to $40 per share, as analysts cite weaker revenue growth, margin compression, and persistent headwinds in retail trends and credit quality. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst coverage on CarMax reflects a divided outlook in the wake of disappointing financial results and evolving market dynamics.

Not Many Are Piling Into CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Stock Yet As It Plummets 25%

Nov 18
Not Many Are Piling Into CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Stock Yet As It Plummets 25%

KMX: Future Recovery Will Rely on Easing Loan Loss Pressures

CarMax's analyst price target has been lowered significantly, with the consensus now reflecting a cut of more than $20 per share. Analysts cite continued earnings misses, weaker retail sales, and growing uncertainty around the company’s recovery outlook.

Auto Credit Trends And Digital Expansion Will Shape Dealer Reach Ahead

CarMax’s analyst fair value target has been lowered from $57.79 to $55.50. Analysts cite continued softness in earnings, elevated loan losses, and weaker retail sales forecasts following recent quarterly results.

Auto Finance And Digital Sales Will Expand Dealer Reach

CarMax's fair value estimate has been revised sharply lower, dropping from $76.93 to $57.79. Analysts point to mounting sales uncertainty, downward earnings revisions, and lack of visible turnaround strategies following weaker-than-expected Q2 results and multiple price target cuts across the Street.

CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks After Plunging 28%

Sep 27
CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks After Plunging 28%

Auto Finance And Digital Sales Will Expand Dealer Reach

CarMax’s consensus price target has been reduced from $81.44 to $76.93 as weaker-than-expected Q2 results, increased uncertainty around future strategy, and ongoing operating headwinds overshadow cautious optimism regarding operational improvements and growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Weak Q2 results, including a broad earnings miss and underperformance across key metrics, have raised doubts about CarMax's ability to sustain market leadership and deliver additional growth.

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX)

Sep 10
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX)

Investors Could Be Concerned With CarMax's (NYSE:KMX) Returns On Capital

Aug 09
Investors Could Be Concerned With CarMax's (NYSE:KMX) Returns On Capital

Earnings Tell The Story For CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX)

Jun 15
Earnings Tell The Story For CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX)

Why CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Could Be Worth Watching

May 25
Why CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Could Be Worth Watching

CarMax: Tariff Benefits Appear Priced In

Mar 28

CarMax: Near-Term Growth Outlook Is Not Great

Jan 22

CarMax Delivers Despite Lower Car Prices, Lock In Gains

Dec 19
User avatar

Revamping Retail Experience And Finance Innovation Fuels Company's Growth Path

The new order processing system and omnichannel retail strategy emphasize operational efficiency and digital sales growth, aiming for increased margins and sales.

CarMax: Still Overvalued Relative To Peers

Sep 27

CarMax: Mixed Signs Of Stabilization

Sep 05

CarMax: Continued Share Loss Should Drive De-Rating

Jun 19

CarMax: Buy The Q4 Earnings Dip, Here's Why

Apr 11

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:KMX - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
2/28/202926,726495517N/A3
2/29/202826,57641353664415
2/28/202725,98032357844917
2/28/202627,7552471,2431,784N/A
11/30/202527,8344581,9492,484N/A
8/31/202528,2805216851,208N/A
5/31/202528,6735585411,042N/A
2/28/202528,207501157624N/A
11/30/202427,796461338788N/A
8/31/202427,6794185531,021N/A
5/31/202427,69240394526N/A
2/29/202428,213479-7459N/A
11/30/202328,248498-688-230N/A
8/31/202328,544454314743N/A
5/31/202329,556461102567N/A
2/28/202331,1264858611,283N/A
11/30/202233,0515767941,195N/A
8/31/202235,037807-1,060-685N/A
5/31/202234,848967-2,251-1,907N/A
2/28/202233,1971,151-2,858-2,549N/A
11/30/202130,6331,201-2,551-2,283N/A
8/31/202127,2491,167-1,818-1,607N/A
5/31/202124,5891,179-854-694N/A
2/28/202120,092747503668N/A
11/30/202019,883752543750N/A
8/31/202019,478690526779N/A
5/31/202019,303627654970N/A
2/29/202021,424888-569-237N/A
11/30/201920,747866N/A-70N/A
8/31/201920,222883N/A-73N/A
5/31/201919,754871N/A-25N/A
2/28/201919,146842N/A163N/A
11/30/201818,880772N/A227N/A
8/31/201818,661731N/A-51N/A
5/31/201818,253691N/A-41N/A
2/28/201817,977664N/A-81N/A
11/30/201717,918695N/A-312N/A
8/31/201717,488682N/A-341N/A
5/31/201717,076663N/A-351N/A
2/28/201716,637627N/A-455N/A
11/30/201616,274615N/A-103N/A
8/31/201616,096607N/A-97N/A
5/31/201615,963617N/A-179N/A
2/29/201615,833623N/A-117N/A
11/30/201515,619626N/A-565N/A
8/31/201515,461627N/A-616N/A
5/31/201515,156610N/A-641N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KMX's forecast earnings growth (23.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: KMX's earnings (23.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16% per year).

High Growth Earnings: KMX's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: KMX's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KMX's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.7% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KMX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/04 06:33
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/04 00:00
Earnings2026/02/28
Annual Earnings2026/02/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

CarMax, Inc. is covered by 35 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Craig KennisonBaird
John BabcockBarclays