CarMax, Inc.

NYSE:KMX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.2b

CarMax Past Earnings Performance

Past criteria checks 0/6

CarMax's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -23.5%, while the Specialty Retail industry saw earnings declining at 2.9% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 0.3% per year. CarMax's return on equity is 4.2%, and it has net margins of 0.9%.

Key information

-23.53%

Earnings growth rate

-21.95%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail Industry Growth26.64%
Revenue growth rate-0.31%
Return on equity4.20%
Net Margin0.89%
Next Earnings Update17 Jun 2026

Recent past performance updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 01

KMX: Starboard Turnaround Push And New Leadership Will Drive Re Rating Potential

The updated analyst price target on CarMax reflects a modest reset, with a roughly $2 swing in recent targets as analysts factor in softer revenue growth assumptions, lower profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple based on the latest research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on CarMax shows a mix of views, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets while others stay more cautious on the shares.
Narrative Update • Apr 17

KMX: Starboard Turnaround Push And AI Rollout Will Drive Re Rating Potential

Analysts have adjusted the CarMax fair value estimate upward by about $1.73 to $77.89, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue trends, profit margins, and future P/E expectations following a mix of recent target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on CarMax shows a mix of views, with several bullish analysts adjusting price targets upward while a few take a more cautious stance.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 14

CarMax: Patience Can Be Rewarded After Cautious 2027 Guidance

Summary CarMax, Inc. remains a Buy in the low $40s, with a fair value of ~$50, offering 15%+ upside despite near-term headwinds. KMX faces margin compression from weak used car pricing, higher loan loss provisions, and a strategic shift toward Tier 2 borrowers in its financing arm. Cost-cutting initiatives, paused buybacks, and conservative guidance position KMX for improved cash flow and potential EPS recovery in fiscal 2028. New KMX management and activist involvement (Starboard) are expected to drive technology focus, operational efficiency, and future growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 02

KMX: Activist Demands And Execution Risks Will Limit Future Share Returns

Analysts have lifted their price targets on CarMax by mid single digit dollar amounts, citing refreshed models following the recent investor meeting and updated views on the company's earnings power, as reflected in slightly adjusted revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around CarMax has centered on refreshed models following the investor meeting, with several firms revising their price targets by mid single digit dollar amounts.
Narrative Update • Mar 19

KMX: Activist Pressure And Execution Risks Will Restrain Future Share Returns

Analysts have nudged CarMax price targets higher, with recent moves such as Evercore ISI raising its target to $39 from $37 and Baird moving to $48 from $44, reflecting updated views on the company following its investor meeting and other research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on CarMax show a mix of support and caution.
Narrative Update • Mar 05

KMX: Refreshed Investor Day Plan And AI Initiatives Will Drive Re Rating Potential

Narrative Update on CarMax Analysts have lifted their price target for CarMax by $4 to $48, citing refreshed models after the recent investor meeting, improved revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a lower expected future P/E multiple in their updated views. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more constructive tone on CarMax, with several bullish analysts lifting their price targets after reviewing the latest investor meeting materials and updating their models.
Narrative Update • Feb 18

KMX: Refreshed Investor Day Framework Will Drive Re Rating Potential

Analysts have raised their CarMax price targets, with recent updates moving one estimate to $48 from $44 and others higher by $2 to $4. They cited refreshed models following the company’s investor meeting and modestly adjusted expectations for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E.
Narrative Update • Feb 04

KMX: Mixed Sector Backdrop And Weaker Margins Will Pressure Future Returns

Narrative Update Analysts have lifted their price targets on CarMax by a few dollars, citing mixed sector fundamentals, questions around the company’s direction, and lower assumptions for fair value, revenue growth, margins, and future P/E, which together support a more conservative but still constructive outlook. Analyst Commentary Street research around CarMax has centered on how the business fits into a mixed auto retail sector, with some firms taking a cautious stance even as they fine tune price targets.
Narrative Update • Jan 21

KMX: Digital Auction Execution Will Drive Re Rating Potential Despite Sector Caution

The analyst price target for CarMax has been cut from about US$114 to roughly US$75, with analysts citing a reduced revenue growth outlook, a lower assumed future P/E multiple, and ongoing uncertainty around the company’s strategy. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage highlights that views on CarMax are cautious overall, but there are still a few angles that more optimistic investors might focus on.
Analysis Article • Jan 18

CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Soars 27% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward

CarMax, Inc. ( NYSE:KMX ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand...
Narrative Update • Jan 06

KMX: Future Returns Will Hinge On Credit Risk And Execution Clarity

Narrative Update: CarMax Analyst Price Target Shift Analysts have reduced their average CarMax price target by $32, from $78 to $46. This reflects fresh concerns around the company's strategy and credit risk, even as they point to mixed but resilient sector fundamentals and updated earnings guidance.
Narrative Update • Dec 20

KMX: Future Returns Will Depend On Credit Normalization Amid Execution Concerns

Analysts have trimmed their CarMax fair value estimate by about $1.50 per share to roughly $38, reflecting a series of reduced Street price targets in the $40s and $50s as concerns mount over slowing unit growth, weaker margins, and uncertainty around the company’s strategic execution. Analyst Commentary Street research on CarMax has shifted decisively toward caution, but views are not uniformly negative.
Narrative Update • Dec 06

KMX: Future Recovery Will Hinge On Loan Loss And Credit Normalization

Analysts have trimmed their CarMax price target slightly, reflecting a modest reset in fair value to about $40 per share as they factor in weaker unit trends, persistent credit headwinds, and increased uncertainty around the company’s strategic execution. Analyst Commentary Research coverage around CarMax has tilted more cautious in recent weeks, with multiple firms cutting price targets and downgrading ratings as they recalibrate expectations for growth, margins, and credit performance.
Narrative Update • Nov 22

KMX: Recovery Will Depend On Resolution Of Loan Loss Headwinds

CarMax's analyst price target has been reduced significantly from approximately $55 to $40 per share, as analysts cite weaker revenue growth, margin compression, and persistent headwinds in retail trends and credit quality. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst coverage on CarMax reflects a divided outlook in the wake of disappointing financial results and evolving market dynamics.
Analysis Article • Nov 18

Not Many Are Piling Into CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Stock Yet As It Plummets 25%

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the CarMax, Inc. ( NYSE:KMX ) share price has dived 25% in the last thirty days...
Narrative Update • Nov 07

KMX: Future Recovery Will Rely on Easing Loan Loss Pressures

CarMax's analyst price target has been lowered significantly, with the consensus now reflecting a cut of more than $20 per share. Analysts cite continued earnings misses, weaker retail sales, and growing uncertainty around the company’s recovery outlook.
Narrative Update • Oct 24

Auto Credit Trends And Digital Expansion Will Shape Dealer Reach Ahead

CarMax’s analyst fair value target has been lowered from $57.79 to $55.50. Analysts cite continued softness in earnings, elevated loan losses, and weaker retail sales forecasts following recent quarterly results.
Narrative Update • Oct 10

Auto Finance And Digital Sales Will Expand Dealer Reach

CarMax's fair value estimate has been revised sharply lower, dropping from $76.93 to $57.79. Analysts point to mounting sales uncertainty, downward earnings revisions, and lack of visible turnaround strategies following weaker-than-expected Q2 results and multiple price target cuts across the Street.
Analysis Article • Sep 27

CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks After Plunging 28%

The CarMax, Inc. ( NYSE:KMX ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 28%. The...
Narrative Update • Sep 26

Auto Finance And Digital Sales Will Expand Dealer Reach

CarMax’s consensus price target has been reduced from $81.44 to $76.93 as weaker-than-expected Q2 results, increased uncertainty around future strategy, and ongoing operating headwinds overshadow cautious optimism regarding operational improvements and growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Weak Q2 results, including a broad earnings miss and underperformance across key metrics, have raised doubts about CarMax's ability to sustain market leadership and deliver additional growth.
Analysis Article • Sep 10

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX)

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, CarMax fair value estimate is US$66.00 Current share price of...
Analysis Article • Aug 09

Investors Could Be Concerned With CarMax's (NYSE:KMX) Returns On Capital

NYSE:KMX 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore CarMax's Fair Values from the Community and select yours If you're...
Analysis Article • Jun 15

Earnings Tell The Story For CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.8x CarMax, Inc. ( NYSE:KMX ) may be sending bearish signals at the...
Analysis Article • May 25

Why CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Could Be Worth Watching

CarMax, Inc. ( NYSE:KMX ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price movement during...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 28

CarMax: Tariff Benefits Appear Priced In

Summary CarMax shares have declined 12% in the past year due to a stagnant used car market and rising credit losses. President Trump's 25% auto tariffs could indirectly benefit CarMax by increasing used car prices, though this may not boost long-term profitability. Higher used car prices may provide a one-time windfall for CarMax, but affordability issues could reduce sales volumes. Despite potential short-term gains, CarMax stock remains overvalued; I maintain a sell rating, cautious of extrapolating temporary benefits. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 22

CarMax: Near-Term Growth Outlook Is Not Great

Summary I recommend a sell rating for CarMax due to affordability challenges and fierce competition, which are significant growth headwinds. KMX faces declining revenues and affordability issues, with average selling prices of used vehicles dropping for eight consecutive quarters. Competition from Carvana is intensifying, with CVNA showing better growth and profitability, putting additional pressure on KMX. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 19

CarMax Delivers Despite Lower Car Prices, Lock In Gains

Summary CarMax, Inc.'s fiscal Q2 2025 revenues increased slightly, with a $170 million beat versus consensus, driven by higher volumes despite lower pricing. Comparable store used unit sales rose 4.3%, and total retail used vehicle unit sales increased 5.4%, showing positive momentum. Gross profit increased 10.6% year-over-year, with retail gross profit per used unit flat and wholesale gross profit per unit up $54. CarMax repurchased 1.5 million shares for $114.8 million in Q2, with $2.04 billion remaining for repurchase, supporting a long-term investment thesis. The author has provided multiple winning trades on CarMax and suggests letting some profit run. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Sep 29

Revamping Retail Experience And Finance Innovation Fuels Company's Growth Path

The new order processing system and omnichannel retail strategy emphasize operational efficiency and digital sales growth, aiming for increased margins and sales.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 27

CarMax: Still Overvalued Relative To Peers

Summary CarMax lacks competitive advantages and has underperformed the market, with stagnant stock prices, while the S&P 500 gained 30% over the same period. CarMax's Q2 results showed mixed performance, with retail used unit sales up but overall revenue down 4.3% due to a strong decline in wholesale vehicles. KMX's margins and ROIC are significantly lower than its peers, indicating a weaker competitive position and capital allocation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 05

CarMax: Mixed Signs Of Stabilization

Summary CarMax, Inc.'s sales continue to be pressured by a weak automotive sales industry, but the company's focus on gross profit has already started stabilizing the gross margin. The industry outlook remains cloudy regarding used car prices, the consumer sentiment, and interest rates. A fair midterm earnings recovery is still priced into CarMax's stock price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 19

CarMax: Continued Share Loss Should Drive De-Rating

Summary KMX is underperforming the industry and continued share loss should drive de-rating going forward. The industry is facing supply headwinds and it's not looking good for the company as it doesn't have the flexibility to ramp up older cars. KMX is trading at 18.5x FY2 P/E, above the industry mean of 15x, which is too high given the current backdrop. Sell. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Revenue & Expenses Breakdown

How CarMax makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.

Earnings and Revenue History

NYSE:KMX Revenue, expenses and earnings (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsG+A ExpensesR&D Expenses
28 Feb 2627,7552472,4040
30 Nov 2527,8344582,4530
31 Aug 2528,2805212,4470
31 May 2528,6735582,4560
28 Feb 2528,2075012,4350
30 Nov 2427,7964612,4730
31 Aug 2427,6794182,4570
31 May 2427,6924032,3730
29 Feb 2428,2134792,3540
30 Nov 2328,2484982,2780
31 Aug 2328,5444542,3100
31 May 2329,5564612,4500
28 Feb 2331,1264852,4870
30 Nov 2233,0515762,5350
31 Aug 2235,0378072,5420
31 May 2234,8489672,4420
28 Feb 2233,1971,1512,3250
30 Nov 2130,6331,2012,2260
31 Aug 2127,2491,1672,0580
31 May 2124,5891,1791,9340
28 Feb 2120,0927471,7040
30 Nov 2019,8837521,7230
31 Aug 2019,4786901,7770
31 May 2019,3036271,8160
29 Feb 2021,4248881,7500
30 Nov 1920,7478661,8840
31 Aug 1920,2228831,8090
31 May 1919,7548711,7820
28 Feb 1919,1468421,7300
30 Nov 1818,8807721,7100
31 Aug 1818,6617311,7000
31 May 1818,2536911,6520
28 Feb 1817,9776641,6170
30 Nov 1717,9186951,5940
31 Aug 1717,4886821,5510
31 May 1717,0766631,5120
28 Feb 1716,6376271,4890
30 Nov 1616,2746151,4370
31 Aug 1616,0966071,4180
31 May 1615,9636171,3820
29 Feb 1615,8336231,3520
30 Nov 1515,6196261,3480
31 Aug 1515,4616271,3270
31 May 1515,1566101,3150

Quality Earnings: KMX has a large one-off loss of $191.1M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 28th February, 2026.

Growing Profit Margin: KMX's current net profit margins (0.9%) are lower than last year (1.8%).

Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: KMX's earnings have declined by 23.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: KMX's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: KMX had negative earnings growth (-50.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Specialty Retail industry average (-2.5%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: KMX's Return on Equity (4.2%) is considered low.

Return on Assets

Return on Capital Employed

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/18 21:11
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/15 00:00
Earnings2026/02/28
Annual Earnings2026/02/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

CarMax, Inc. is covered by 35 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Craig KennisonBaird
John BabcockBarclays