AutoNation Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
AutoNation is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 5.3% and 3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 22.2% in 3 years.
Key information
5.3%
Earnings growth rate
10.24%
EPS growth rate
| Specialty Retail earnings growth | 9.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.0% |
| Future return on equity | 22.19% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 07 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 06
AN: Ongoing Buybacks And Solid Margins Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target on AutoNation slightly higher to approximately $242 per share, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that leave their overall valuation view largely unchanged. What's in the News AutoNation reported that from October 1, 2025 to February 10, 2026, it repurchased 2,948,352 shares, or 8% of its stock, for US$617.42m under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 19
AN: Share Repurchases Will Sustain Earnings Power And Support Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on AutoNation slightly. They now reflect a fair value of about $290, as small adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions leave the overall outlook broadly unchanged.Narrative Update • Apr 05
AN: Ongoing Buybacks Will Support Future Earnings Power
Analysts now see AutoNation's fair value at about $292.75 per share, with the modest adjustment from the prior $292.75 tied to small tweaks in the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and expected future P/E assumptions. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to February 10, 2026, AutoNation repurchased 2,948,352 shares, about 8% of its shares, for US$617.42 million under its ongoing buyback plan that began on October 24, 2007 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 22
AN: Ongoing Share Repurchases Will Support Measured Future Upside Potential
Analysts have adjusted their price target for AutoNation to align with a fair value estimate of about $241.27, up from roughly $239.30. The change reflects updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Mar 07
AN: Ongoing Buybacks And Maryland Expansion Will Support Future Earnings Power
Analysts trimmed their fair value estimate for AutoNation slightly to $292.75 from $295.90 as they now apply a marginally higher discount rate, expect softer revenue growth and profit margins, and use a higher future P/E assumption in their models. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to February 4, 2026, AutoNation repurchased 2,200,000 shares for $461.3 million, representing 5.97% of shares.Seeking Alpha • Mar 04
AutoNation: Shifting Gears Toward Higher-Margin Growth
Summary AutoNation (AN) is evolving from a cyclical vehicle seller to a higher-margin, recurring revenue operator, driven by aftersales and customer financing momentum. Q4'25 saw softer vehicle sales but record gross profits in Aftersales and Customer Financial Services, supporting resilient profitability despite macro headwinds. Free cash flow over $1B enabled significant share repurchases, reducing share count by 10%, and the company maintains low leverage with investment-grade credit ratings. With an undemanding valuation, strong capital returns, and a shift toward recurring revenue, I rate AN a buy for double-digit annualized returns despite near-term volume softness. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Feb 21
AN: Maryland Expansion And Buybacks Will Support Stronger Long Term Earnings Power
Analysts have slightly lowered their AutoNation price target to $295.90 from $296.79, citing updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to February 4, 2026, AutoNation repurchased 2,200,000 shares, or 5.97% of its stock, for US$461.3 million under its long running buyback program announced in 2007 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 06
AN: Maryland Expansion Will Support Stronger Long Term Earnings Power
Analysts have raised their price target for AutoNation from about US$245 to roughly US$297, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News AutoNation acquired Jerry's Toyota from Jerry's Automotive Group in Baltimore, Maryland, renaming it AutoNation Toyota White Marsh, effective December 8, 2025 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 23
AN: Share Repurchases And Recent Dealership Acquisition Will Guide Measured Future Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target on AutoNation higher to $239.30 from $238.10, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly lower revenue growth, a modestly higher profit margin, and a small adjustment to the forward P/E multiple. What's in the News AutoNation acquired Jerry's Toyota in Baltimore, Maryland, renaming it AutoNation Toyota White Marsh, effective December 8, 2025 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 08
AN: Buybacks And Modest M&A Will Support Measured Future Upside Potential
Narrative Update on AutoNation Analysts have adjusted their price target on AutoNation slightly higher to US$238.10 from US$236.60, citing refreshed fair value work that incorporates minor tweaks to the discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin assumptions, and future P/E estimates. What's in the News AutoNation acquired Jerry's Toyota in Baltimore, Maryland, renaming it AutoNation Toyota White Marsh, effective December 8, 2025.Narrative Update • Dec 25
AN: Share Repurchases Will Continue To Support Measured Upside Potential
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target on AutoNation, trimming fair value by about $3 to roughly $236.60. Modestly reduced forward earnings multiples and cautious long term profitability assumptions are tempering their outlook.Narrative Update • Dec 11
AN: Share Repurchases And Acquisitions Will Continue To Support Measured Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their price target on AutoNation slightly, reflecting a modest fair value increase from about $238 to $239 per share as they factor in somewhat stronger revenue growth expectations that more than offset a minor trim to projected profit margins and a slightly higher discount rate. What's in the News Expanded share repurchase authorization by $1.0 billion, bringing total buyback capacity to $11.5 billion as of October 31, 2025 (company announcement) Completed repurchase of 1,234,984 shares, or 3.28%, for $269.24 million between July 1 and October 21, 2025, culminating in 170,630,933 shares bought for $10.02 billion under the long running program initiated in 2007 (company filing) Continuing to pursue M&A, with about $350 million deployed year to date on transactions in Denver and Chicago to increase scale and market density (Q3 2025 earnings call) Grand re opening of the redeveloped Porsche Newport Beach retail and service center, a 60,000 sq.Analysis Article • Dec 09
Is AutoNation (NYSE:AN) Using Too Much Debt?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Narrative Update • Nov 26
AN: Ongoing Repurchases And Acquisitions Will Support Measured Upside Potential
Analysts have raised their price target for AutoNation from $233.00 to $238.45, citing modest improvements in revenue growth expectations and a slight reduction in discount rate assumptions. What's in the News AutoNation increased its share repurchase program by $1,000 million, bringing total authorization to $11,500 million (company announcement).Narrative Update • Nov 12
AN: Expanded Share Repurchases Will Likely Drive Market Outperformance
Analysts have raised their price target for AutoNation from $228.30 to $233.00. They cite slightly improved revenue growth expectations, even though there is a marginal decrease in projected profit margins.Narrative Update • Oct 29
Buybacks And Luxury Acquisitions Will Drive Market Expansion Next Year
Narrative Update: Analyst Price Target Revision for AutoNation Analysts have raised their price target for AutoNation by $2.20 to $228.30. This update is based on improved revenue growth expectations, a modest increase in profit margin forecasts, and a slightly lower projected future price-to-earnings ratio.Analysis Article • Oct 28
AutoNation, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
AutoNation, Inc. ( NYSE:AN ) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was...Narrative Update • Oct 14
After-Sales And Digital Evolution Will Capture US Secular Trends
Analysts have raised their price target for AutoNation from $221.91 to $226.10. This reflects improved forecasts for the company's revenue growth and profit margin.Analysis Article • Sep 08
AutoNation (NYSE:AN) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Narrative Update • Sep 05
After-Sales And Digital Evolution Will Capture US Secular Trends
With no notable changes in either the discount rate or future P/E, AutoNation’s consensus analyst price target remained essentially flat at $221.91. What's in the News Repurchased 183,982 shares for $28.99 million, representing 0.49% of shares outstanding.Analysis Article • Aug 23
Investors Aren't Entirely Convinced By AutoNation, Inc.'s (NYSE:AN) Earnings
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 20x, you may...Analysis Article • Jul 14
Is AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE:AN) Potentially Undervalued?
AutoNation, Inc. ( NYSE:AN ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of 37% in the...Analysis Article • Jun 21
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At AutoNation (NYSE:AN)
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Seeking Alpha • Apr 25
AutoNation: Tariff Resilience Makes Shares Attractive
Summary AutoNation, Inc. has shown moderate performance, with an 8% increase over the past year, driven by substantial cash flow and aggressive share repurchases. Q1 results were solid, with EPS of $4.68 beating estimates, but operating income fell 4% due to higher SG&A expenses. Despite tariff risks, AutoNation's diverse business model, particularly in maintenance and used vehicles, provides resilience and natural hedges against market fluctuations. AN shares trade at 9x earnings, presenting a compelling opportunity with fair value estimated between $190-$200, making AutoNation a buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 11
AutoNation: Debt Maturity Looms While EBITDA, Cash Flow And Margins Erode
Summary AutoNation's stock is expected to drop to $144/share due to declining sales, gross margin erosion, rising interest costs, and high SG&A overheads. The car dealership industry is in free-fall, with new and used car sales volumes plummeting, impacting AutoNation's EBITDA and free cash flow. AutoNation's reliance on Parts & Service for nearly half its Gross Profit highlights financial strain, with rising interest expenses and a significant drop in free cash flow. Despite a stock price increase, AutoNation faces severe financial challenges, with declining sales, higher interest costs, and looming bank debt covenants. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 23
AutoNation: The Bull Case Remains Intact
Summary AutoNation Inc. shares have delivered a 27% total return since my Strong Buy recommendation on November 21, 2023. The company has experienced a challenging 2024 but is likely to return to growth in 2025. The stock remains attractively valued vs the broader market and trades at a reasonable valuation relative to peers. The bull case remains intact and I am re-iterating a Strong Buy rating on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 09
AutoNation: There Are Better Opportunities On The Market
Summary AutoNation faces challenges with stagnating sales and declining revenue, while competitors like Carvana and Lithia Motors show strong growth and market share gains. AutoNation's high debt-to-equity ratio raises concerns about long-term sustainability and financial health. Carvana's innovative Carlypso software and e-commerce model pose a significant competitive threat to traditional automotive retailers like AutoNation. I recommend investing in Lithia Motors and Group 1 Automotive due to their solid growth, profitability, and attractive stock valuations. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Aug 28
Navigating Challenges And Embracing Opportunities In Automotive Retail For Sustained Growth
Expansion in used vehicle sales and service segment improvements suggest potential for increased revenue and margins.Seeking Alpha • Jul 26
AutoNation: The Ride Isn't Over Yet
Summary AutoNation is a major automotive retail company in the US, generating revenue from vehicle sales, parts, services, and finance products. Recent financial results show mixed performance, with revenue holding steady but net income and cash flow declining. Despite challenges, the company is expected to report improved adjusted earnings for the second quarter of 2024, potentially driving additional upside for shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 18
AutoNation: Superb Economics With Minimal Reinvestment Opportunities
Summary AutoNation stock presents with exceptional economic characteristics despite trading at <10x NOPAT. Returns on capital employed in the business persistently sit over 25%, driven by highly efficient asset utilization. With minimal reinvestment runway management is aggressively buying back shares. In my view AN is worth ~$214/share today. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 26
AutoNation: Strong Q1 Results With Aggressive Buybacks Continuing
Summary AutoNation, Inc. shares surged over 8% after reporting strong quarterly results, bringing them back toward their highs from last summer. The company's first-quarter earnings per share beat expectations, with revenue growing by 2% to $6.5 billion. AutoNation's core source of earnings, maintenance, remains strong, offsetting the normalization of vehicle margins. I expect ongoing buybacks, which continue to boost run-rate EPS, creating further shareholder value. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 29,859 | 768 | 620 | 969 | 5 |
| 12/31/2027 | 28,798 | 782 | 779 | 1,072 | 10 |
| 12/31/2026 | 27,781 | 726 | 522 | 788 | 8 |
| 3/31/2026 | 27,493 | 679 | -104 | 187 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 27,631 | 649 | -197 | 112 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 27,915 | 663 | -178 | 111 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 27,464 | 634 | -452 | -150 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 26,970 | 678 | -342 | -32 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 26,765 | 692 | -14 | 315 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 26,320 | 722 | -260 | 126 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 26,626 | 780 | 59 | 452 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 27,036 | 923 | 100 | 509 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 26,949 | 1,020 | 314 | 724 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 26,879 | 1,090 | 609 | 987 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 26,652 | 1,199 | 912 | 1,280 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 26,631 | 1,303 | 1,167 | 1,535 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 26,985 | 1,378 | 1,339 | 1,668 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 26,870 | 1,479 | 1,221 | 1,512 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 26,584 | 1,488 | 1,333 | 1,592 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 26,693 | 1,496 | 1,514 | 1,745 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 25,844 | 1,373 | 1,412 | 1,628 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 25,047 | 1,138 | 1,398 | 1,603 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 24,072 | 959 | 1,047 | 1,244 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 21,627 | 854 | 1,465 | 1,620 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 20,390 | 382 | 1,052 | 1,208 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 20,154 | 388 | 1,072 | 1,268 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 20,210 | 305 | 1,016 | 1,238 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 21,021 | 127 | 372 | 623 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 21,336 | 451 | N/A | 769 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 21,199 | 386 | N/A | 641 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 21,087 | 398 | N/A | 646 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 21,135 | 395 | N/A | 572 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 21,413 | 396 | N/A | 511 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 21,685 | 455 | N/A | 618 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 21,768 | 440 | N/A | 592 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 21,655 | 430 | N/A | 553 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 21,535 | 435 | N/A | 540 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 21,332 | 399 | N/A | 494 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 21,467 | 409 | N/A | 527 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 21,629 | 434 | N/A | 503 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 21,609 | 432 | N/A | 516 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 21,468 | 414 | N/A | 511 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 21,255 | 425 | N/A | 493 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 21,037 | 428 | N/A | 506 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 20,862 | 444 | N/A | 507 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 20,570 | 463 | N/A | 508 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 20,125 | 451 | N/A | 517 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AN's forecast earnings growth (5.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: AN's earnings (5.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: AN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: AN's revenue (3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AN's revenue (3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22.2%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/11 06:22 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
AutoNation, Inc. is covered by 25 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Babcock | Barclays |
| Andrew Fung | Berenberg |
| Alexander Perry | BofA Global Research |