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AN: Share Repurchases And Acquisitions Will Continue To Support Measured Upside Potential

Buybacks And Luxury Acquisitions Will Drive Market Expansion Next Year

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AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 28 Aug 2024

Update shared on 11 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 0.30%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
23.6%
7D
-6.8%

Analysts have lifted their price target on AutoNation slightly, reflecting a modest fair value increase from about $238 to $239 per share as they factor in somewhat stronger revenue growth expectations that more than offset a minor trim to projected profit margins and a slightly higher discount rate.

What's in the News

  • Expanded share repurchase authorization by $1.0 billion, bringing total buyback capacity to $11.5 billion as of October 31, 2025 (company announcement)
  • Completed repurchase of 1,234,984 shares, or 3.28%, for $269.24 million between July 1 and October 21, 2025, culminating in 170,630,933 shares bought for $10.02 billion under the long running program initiated in 2007 (company filing)
  • Continuing to pursue M&A, with about $350 million deployed year to date on transactions in Denver and Chicago to increase scale and market density (Q3 2025 earnings call)
  • Grand re opening of the redeveloped Porsche Newport Beach retail and service center, a 60,000 sq. ft. flagship luxury facility with concierge style services and expanded community event space (company news release)
  • Acquisition of Fletcher Jones Audi and Mercedes Benz of Chicago, adding roughly $325 million of annual revenue and boosting AutoNation's Chicago footprint to 10 locations (company news release)

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly, increasing from about $238.45 to $239.18 per share.
  • The discount rate has increased modestly, moving from approximately 11.63% to 11.91%, reflecting a slightly higher perceived risk profile.
  • The revenue growth assumption has risen meaningfully, from roughly 3.32% to 4.05% annually, indicating stronger long term top line expectations.
  • The net profit margin forecast has edged down slightly, from about 2.97% to 2.91%, suggesting some anticipated pressure on profitability.
  • The future P/E multiple has increased marginally, from around 10.52x to 10.64x, implying a slightly higher valuation basis on forward earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.