Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

NYSE:PAG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.8b

Penske Automotive Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Penske Automotive Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 4.1% and 3.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 6.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 15.2% in 3 years.

Key information

4.1%

Earnings growth rate

6.18%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth10.0%
Revenue growth rate3.3%
Future return on equity15.21%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated29 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 10

PAG: Capital Returns And Dealership Adjustments Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Penske Automotive Group from $193.00 to $206.00, citing updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that together support a higher price target framework. What's in the News Penske Automotive Group reported mixed Q1 2026 results, with adjusted earnings ahead of expectations while overall performance reflected softer new vehicle deliveries and stronger used vehicle revenues in the Retail Automotive segment.
Narrative Update • May 27

PAG: Ongoing Buybacks And Rising Dividend Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target on Penske Automotive Group to about $186 from roughly $179, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E that together support a modestly higher fair value estimate. What's in the News Penske Automotive Group's board approved a quarterly dividend of $1.42 per share, a $0.02 (roughly 1.4%) increase that marks the 22nd consecutive quarterly dividend raise, payable June 3, 2026 to shareholders of record on May 26, 2026 (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • May 12

PAG: Buybacks And Dividend Increases Will Support A Steady Outlook

Analysts have lifted their price target on Penske Automotive Group from $155 to $160, reflecting updated assumptions that combine a higher discount rate and P/E outlook with slightly revised expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News From January 1, 2026 to March 31, 2026, Penske Automotive Group repurchased 170,000 shares, about 0.26% of outstanding shares, for US$26.32 million under its ongoing buyback program announced on February 19, 2010 (Key Developments).
Seeking Alpha • Apr 29

Penske Automotive Group: Solid Fundamentals Reflected In Valuation

Summary Penske Automotive Group delivered a strong Q1, beating earnings estimates and driving a 10% stock rally. PAG's resilient business model is underpinned by high-margin service and parts, which provide steady cash flow despite cyclical vehicle sales. Luxury vehicle focus and global diversification help insulate PAG from economic headwinds affecting broader auto sales. With shares near fair value at $175-$180 and a 3.5% yield, I maintain a "Neutral" stance, preferring peers trading at lower multiples. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 24

PAG: Dividend And Buybacks Will Support Attractive Future Upside Potential

Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Penske Automotive Group from $195.00 to $193.00 after incorporating updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E into their models. What's in the News The board approved a quarterly dividend of $1.40 per share, described as a 1.4% increase, with a stated forward dividend yield of 3.4%.
Narrative Update • Apr 10

PAG: Ongoing Buybacks And Rising Dividend Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Penske Automotive Group by about $2 to $179. This reflects updated views on fair value, discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Mar 25

PAG: Persistent Buybacks And Rising Dividend Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have slightly trimmed their price target on Penske Automotive Group to about $181.11, citing only minor tweaks to fair value assumptions, discount rate, and long-term P/E inputs, rather than any major shift in the underlying outlook. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Penske Automotive Group repurchased 242,589 shares for US$40.39 million, representing 0.37% of its shares under an existing buyback program.
Narrative Update • Mar 10

PAG: Dividend Increases And Buybacks Will Drive Future Return Profile

Analysts have slightly increased their price target on Penske Automotive Group to about $181.67 per share, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Penske Automotive Group's board of directors approved a 1.4% increase in the quarterly dividend, adding $0.02 per share to reach $1.40 per share, which represents a forward dividend yield of 3.4% based on the figures provided (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 24

PAG: Dividend Growth And Buybacks Will Support Future Return Profile

Analysts have nudged their price target for Penske Automotive Group slightly higher to about $181 from roughly $180, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, long term revenue growth, profit margin resilience, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Penske Automotive Group's board approved a 1.4% increase in the quarterly dividend, or $0.02 per share, bringing it to $1.40 per share with a stated forward dividend yield of 3.4% (Key Developments).
Analysis Article • Feb 14

Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG) Has Announced That It Will Be Increasing Its Dividend To $1.40

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:PAG ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to...
Narrative Update • Feb 10

PAG: Fair Value Outlook Will Support A Steady Future Return Profile

Analysts have made a small upward adjustment to their price target on Penske Automotive Group, now set around US$180.33. This reflects slightly lower discount rate assumptions, marginal tweaks to long term revenue growth and profit margin estimates, and a modestly lower future P/E multiple in their models.
Narrative Update • Jan 26

PAG: Ongoing Share Repurchases Will Support A Steady Future Return Profile

Analysts have nudged their price target for Penske Automotive Group slightly lower to about US$180.33 from roughly US$180.89. This reflects small adjustments to their assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations.
Analysis Article • Jan 13

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:PAG) Low P/E No Reason For Excitement

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:PAG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.5x might make it look like a buy...
Narrative Update • Jan 11

PAG: Steady Outlook Will Rely On Ongoing Buybacks And Rising Dividends

Analysts have adjusted their price target for Penske Automotive Group to US$180.89, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and forward P/E, while keeping their overall fair value estimate steady at roughly US$180.89. What's in the News Penske Automotive Group repurchased 198,475 shares between July 1, 2025 and October 24, 2025 for US$33.35 million, representing 0.3% of its shares under the existing buyback program (Key Developments).
Analysis Article • Dec 31

We Think Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Narrative Update • Dec 24

PAG: Capital Returns Will Continue Amid Stable Outlook And Modest Earnings Risks

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Penske Automotive Group to approximately $181 per share, citing slightly lower discount rate assumptions along with stable long term growth and profitability expectations that support a marginally higher valuation multiple. What's in the News Penske Automotive Group completed a share repurchase tranche between July 1 and October 24, 2025, buying back 198,475 shares, or about 0.3% of shares outstanding, for $33.35 million (Key Developments) Since the February 19, 2010 authorization, the company has repurchased a total of 30,698,231 shares, representing 38.31% of its shares, for approximately $2.28 billion, underscoring a long running capital return program (Key Developments) The Board of Directors approved a 4.5% increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.38 per share, marking the 20th consecutive quarterly dividend increase (Key Developments) The higher dividend will be paid on December 2, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 14, 2025, providing a near term cash return alongside ongoing buybacks (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate: Remains effectively unchanged at approximately $181 per share, indicating no material shift in the intrinsic value assessment.
Narrative Update • Dec 10

PAG Will Continue Returning Capital While Modest Earnings Risks Persist

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Penske Automotive Group by approximately 1 dollar to reflect slightly stronger expectations for revenue growth and a marginally higher future earnings multiple, partially offset by a small reduction in projected profit margins and a higher discount rate. What's in the News Completed a long running share repurchase program, buying back 198,475 shares between July 1 and October 24, 2025, for 33.35 million dollars, and totaling 30,698,231 shares, or 38.31 percent of shares outstanding, repurchased since the buyback began in 2010 (company buyback update) Continued returning capital to shareholders through an increased quarterly dividend of 1.38 dollars per share, up 4.5 percent, or 0.06 dollars, marking the 20th consecutive quarterly dividend increase, payable December 2, 2025, to shareholders of record on November 14, 2025 (company dividend announcement) Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has risen slightly to approximately 180.89 dollars from 179.86 dollars, reflecting a modest upward revision in intrinsic value.
Analysis Article • Dec 07

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE:PAG)

Key Insights Penske Automotive Group's estimated fair value is US$169 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Penske...
Analysis Article • Nov 10

Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. ( NYSE:PAG ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's...
Narrative Update • Oct 29

Steady Dividend Increases And Digital Advancements Will Support Long Term Value

Narrative Update on Penske Automotive Group Analysts have maintained the fair value estimate for Penske Automotive Group at $179.86. This reflects steady expectations, as key underlying assumptions saw only marginal adjustments.
Narrative Update • Oct 14

Aging Fleets And Digital Investment Will Sustain Long Term Value

Analysts have raised their price target for Penske Automotive Group by approximately $2.29, citing updated forecasts for profit margins and overall financial performance. What's in the News From April 1, 2025 to July 30, 2025, Penske Automotive Group repurchased 496,273 shares, representing 0.74% of its outstanding shares, for a total of $71.32 million.
Analysis Article • Oct 03

Returns Are Gaining Momentum At Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG)

If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...
Analysis Article • Sep 19

Is Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Sep 06

There's No Escaping Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:PAG) Muted Earnings

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:PAG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13x might make it look like a buy...
Narrative Update • Sep 05

Aging Fleets And Digital Investment Will Sustain Long Term Value

With both the consensus analyst price target and key valuation metrics such as discount rate and future P/E ratio remaining effectively unchanged, analyst sentiment and fair value estimate for Penske Automotive Group are stable at $177.57. What's in the News Repurchased 496,273 shares for $71.32 million, completing 38.01% of buyback announced in 2010.
Analysis Article • Aug 08

Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $1.32

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. ( NYSE:PAG ) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 3rd of...
Analysis Article • Jul 07

Does This Valuation Of Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE:PAG) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

Key Insights The projected fair value for Penske Automotive Group is US$137 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 14

Penske Automotive Group: Turning The Corner (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Penske Automotive Group's Retail Automotive segment shows accelerating growth in new car unit sales and improving margins, setting up for EPS growth in 2025. The company made strategic acquisitions worth $786 million in 2024, enhancing its asset base and positioning it well for future growth. Despite challenges in the commercial truck segment, signs of increasing freight activity suggest potential improvement in 2026. Penske's strong balance sheet, disciplined capital management, and best-in-class dividend yield make it an attractive investment, now rated as a Buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 23

Penske Automotive Has Compounded Intrinsic Value By 17% A Year Since 2019 And Remains Attractively Valued

Summary Penske Automotive Group has compounded NOPAT by 17% annually since 2019, reflecting significant post-pandemic growth and increased earnings power. Despite declining balance sheet efficiency, ROIC has marginally improved from 6.4% to 6.6%, showcasing stable profitability. The firm's intrinsic value has doubled since 2019, with a PEBV of 1.33, indicating attractive valuation and strong future growth potential. Penske's diverse global operations and robust revenue streams position it well for sustained profitability and market confidence. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Aug 22

Critical Acquisitions And Efficient Operations Set To Propel Market Diversification And Shareholder Value

Growth through strategic acquisitions and increased service and parts revenue signals a diversified and strengthening revenue stream, improving overall financial performance.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 01

Penske Automotive Group Has Been Busy

Summary Penske Automotive Group had been an active acquirer in 1H 2024, adding diverse businesses that will increase sales by $2 billion per year. Upcoming interest rate cuts should help Penske in many ways, from floor plan interest expense to the financing business. Penske continues to have a premium valuation to peers, who could benefit more from lower rates. The stock remains a Hold. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:PAG - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202833,930910N/AN/A4
12/31/202733,18891359482110
12/31/202632,10387359381410
3/31/202631,718912597899N/A
12/31/202531,809935651975N/A
9/30/202532,4411,0077991,129N/A
6/30/202532,3361,0206891,020N/A
3/31/202532,3711,0117061,066N/A
12/31/202431,8659698531,231N/A
9/30/202430,0078736481,034N/A
6/30/202429,8649117891,180N/A
3/31/202429,6369708631,238N/A
12/31/202330,9171,1097591,145N/A
9/30/202329,2671,1619141,273N/A
6/30/202328,7401,2378541,184N/A
3/31/202328,1781,3101,0611,390N/A
12/31/202227,8151,3801,1771,459N/A
9/30/202227,0991,3928841,171N/A
6/30/202226,6761,4079601,256N/A
3/31/202226,7561,3721,1721,435N/A
12/31/202125,5551,1871,0441,293N/A
9/30/202125,0711,0761,4541,683N/A
6/30/202124,5459681,1341,334N/A
3/31/202121,2096741,0271,229N/A
12/31/202020,4445431,0161,202N/A
9/30/202020,523445537707N/A
6/30/202020,519314811999N/A
3/31/202022,624387431639N/A
12/31/201923,179436N/A519N/A
9/30/201922,727432N/A740N/A
6/30/201922,418446N/A502N/A
3/31/201922,603463N/A531N/A
12/31/201822,785471N/A615N/A
9/30/201822,744703N/A692N/A
6/30/201822,610667N/A720N/A
3/31/201822,053638N/A607N/A
12/31/201721,387614N/A624N/A
9/30/201720,877366N/A376N/A
6/30/201720,504359N/A422N/A
3/31/201720,375348N/A481N/A
12/31/201620,119344N/A373N/A
9/30/201620,152334N/A480N/A
6/30/201619,960333N/A389N/A
3/31/201619,627333N/A261N/A
12/31/201519,285330N/A392N/A
9/30/201518,789336N/A464N/A
6/30/201518,226326N/A443N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PAG's forecast earnings growth (4.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: PAG's earnings (4.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (18.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PAG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: PAG's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PAG's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PAG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.2%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/16 11:47
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/16 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. is covered by 24 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John BabcockBarclays
Michael AlbaneseBenchmark Company
Andrew FungBerenberg