Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) After Its First-Quarter Results

Investors in Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.6% to close at US$2.78 following the release of its first-quarter results. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at CN¥2.0b, beating analyst expectations by 4.6%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Baozun

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Baozun's eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥9.09b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 70% to CN¥1.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥9.13b and losses of CN¥2.73 per share in 2024. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very favorable reduction to losses per share in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$3.45, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Baozun analyst has a price target of US$4.94 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.49. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Baozun's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 5.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Baozun.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$3.45, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Baozun analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Baozun you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.