Baozun Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Baozun is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 80.6% and 6.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 77.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6.6% in 3 years.
Key information
80.6%
Earnings growth rate
77.71%
EPS growth rate
| Multiline Retail earnings growth | 16.3% |
| Revenue growth rate | 6.1% |
| Future return on equity | 6.61% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 30 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 08
BZUN: Higher Modeled Profitability Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have raised their price target for Baozun by about $0.02, reflecting updated views that include higher modeled revenue growth, a slightly stronger profit margin, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts interpreting the latest price target adjustment for Baozun highlight the updated assumptions as a sign of confidence in the company’s ability to balance growth, profitability, and valuation discipline.Seeking Alpha • Mar 27
Baozun: Look Past Mixed Results
Summary I retain a 'Buy' rating for Baozun after analyzing its performance, outlook, and valuations. BZUN's 4Q25 financial disclosures were mixed, considering the revenue outperformance and below-expectations earnings. Management's FY2028 operating income target of CNY550 million implies a substantial 63% CAGR. The stock is attractively valued at a PEG of 0.14x. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Mar 25
BZUN: Consistent Execution On Profitability Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have trimmed their Baozun price target to $6.91. This reflects slightly adjusted assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples in their updated models.Narrative Update • Mar 11
BZUN: Improved Margin Outlook Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Baozun to $6.91, reflecting updated assumptions that include slightly higher revenue growth, a modest improvement in profit margins, and a small change to the future P/E outlook. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Maintained at $6.91, with no change in the underlying model output.Narrative Update • Feb 25
BZUN: Higher Margin Outlook Will Drive Repricing Potential
Analysts have inched their Baozun price target higher, with updated fair value now pointing a bit above $6.90 as they factor in slightly stronger revenue growth, a modestly higher profit margin outlook, and a small adjustment to future P/E assumptions. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Updated slightly to $6.91 from $6.87, reflecting a small adjustment in the modelled estimate.Narrative Update • Feb 10
BZUN: Cleaner Execution And Lower Risk Perception Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have modestly lifted their Baozun fair value estimate from US$6.75 to US$6.87, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly lower discount rate as reasons for the change. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts point to recent positive moves in related China internet names as a useful reference point when thinking about Baozun's potential.Narrative Update • Jan 25
BZUN: Cleaner Execution And Higher Future P/E Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Baozun, citing more cautious assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, along with a higher future P/E multiple in their updated model. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are using recent adjustments on peers in the broader China internet and services space as a reference point when they look at Baozun, especially where they see improving demand visibility and a willingness to assign higher P/E multiples to companies with cleaner execution stories.
Narrative Update • Jan 11
BZUN: Future Returns Will Depend On Balancing Demand Shifts And Earnings Durability
Analysts have raised their price target on Baozun, citing updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples that they believe better align the stock with current sector peers, though they have not provided a specific US$ value for the new target in the sources referenced here. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts looking at Baozun are not drawing direct conclusions from the Kanzhun target change itself, but they are using similar valuation questions to frame their concerns.Narrative Update • Dec 26
BZUN: Future Performance Will Hinge On Converting Demand Into Durable Earnings
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on Baozun, trimming their fair value estimate to roughly $2.70 from about $3.02 per share. They are factoring in a slightly higher discount rate despite improving expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, similar to how they recently adjusted targets for peers following signs of strengthening underlying demand.Narrative Update • Dec 12
BZUN: Margin Expansion And Service Mix Shift Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have raised their price target on Baozun to approximately $6.75 from about $6.00, reflecting greater confidence in the company's accelerating revenue growth, improving profit margins, and slightly higher justified valuation multiples. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts view the recent price target increase for Baozun as a signal that the market is beginning to recognize the company’s improving execution and more visible growth trajectory.Analysis Article • Nov 28
Earnings Update: Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts
Shareholders might have noticed that Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The...Analysis Article • Oct 18
Revenues Working Against Baozun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BZUN) Share Price Following 28% Dive
Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) shares have retraced a considerable 28% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their...Analysis Article • May 20
Baozun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BZUN) Shares Bounce 49% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry
Those holding Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 49% in the last...
New Narrative • May 10
Douyin, WeChat, And RedNote Expansion Will Unlock Future Potential
Expansion into emerging channels and improved digital marketing strategies are expected to drive revenue growth and positively impact net margins.Analysis Article • Apr 05
The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Baozun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BZUN) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 26%
Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand. The...Seeking Alpha • Mar 30
Baozun: Decent Buy Opportunity After The Correction
Summary I maintain a buy rating on BZUN with a 1-year price target of $3.38, presenting over 16% upside from the current price of $2.9. Baozun's fundamentals are improving, with revenue growth, net margin, and operating cash flow all expanding YoY, signaling potential undervaluation post-correction. The omnichannel store operation strategy is key to driving growth, with significant gains in apparel and sportswear categories, despite a weak consumer environment in China. Risks include weak consumption trends and low consumer confidence in China, but BZUN's strategic execution and undervaluation present a compelling investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 16
Baozun: Riding The E-Commerce Wave, But China's Shore Is Shallow
Summary Baozun's revenue and EPS were in line, with strong growth in product sales and e-commerce solutions, driven by Douyin and Tencent. Despite growth, Baozun's reliance on China's weak consumption and maturing e-commerce landscape poses significant risks. Baozun's unprofitability, inefficient cost structure, and lack of global growth potential further undermine its long-term value. We recommend avoiding Baozun due to its fundamental weaknesses and focus on China, preferring companies with global growth potential like PDD, Miniso, and Meituan. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 15
Benign Growth For Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) Underpins Stock's 26% Plummet
Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand...Analysis Article • Nov 12
Baozun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BZUN) 27% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Revenues
The Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) share price has softened a substantial 27% over the previous 30 days, handing back much...Analysis Article • Sep 27
Baozun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BZUN) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 29%
The Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 29...Seeking Alpha • Sep 03
Baozun: Key Valuation Metrics Are Attractive
Summary BZUN achieved better-than-expected top line and operating losses in Q2 2024, and this has favorable read-throughs for the company's future financial performance. Baozun has spent $4.9 million on share buybacks in 2024 year-to-date, following the initiation of a new share repurchase plan in late-January this year. BZUN boasts a potential 5.6% buyback yield for this year and a 6.3 times consensus forward one-year normalized P/E, and the stock deserves a Buy rating considering these attractive metrics. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 30
Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) Second-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
It's been a good week for Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest...Analysis Article • May 31
Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) After Its First-Quarter Results
Investors in Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.6% to close at US$2.78 following the...Analysis Article • May 14
Baozun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BZUN) Share Price Boosted 30% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too
The Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 30...Seeking Alpha • Apr 25
Is Baozun's Risky Leap Into Brand Management Starting To Pay Off?
Summary Baozun’s revenues rose 5% last year following its acquisition of Gap China, which represented 14% of total annual sales. Product sales from the company’s older e-commerce business fell by 21% last year, while e-commerce services revenue also slumped by 5%. Baozun’s current price-to-sales ratio of 0.13 looks quite depressed compared to domestic competitor Weimob, which trades at 1.38. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 09
Baozun: Looking Forward To A Better 2024
Summary Baozun is now attractively valued based on the Enterprise Value-to-Revenue metric; its shares have previously taken a beating due to below-expectations Q4 2023 earnings. But BZUN is expected to register better results this year, thanks to profitability improvement initiatives for its brand management segment and a new brand introduction for its e-commerce segment. Negatives related to its poor fourth quarter performance have already been priced in, and a good financial performance for 2024 might serve as a positive catalyst for Baozun. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 18
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Baozun fair value estimate is US$2.92 Current share price of...Seeking Alpha • Jan 26
Baozun: New Buyback Plan And Gap China's Outlook In The Limelight
Summary Baozun Inc.'s new $20 million share repurchase plan was well received by the market, as evidenced by its +17.3% stock price surge on January 24, 2024. Baozun's Gap China business, which was acquired in January last year, is expected to improve its gross margin in FY 2024 and turn profitable in FY 2025. I keep my Buy rating for Baozun unchanged in view of its new share repurchase program and the financial prospects for its Gap China business. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 06
Baozun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BZUN) Low P/S No Reason For Excitement
Baozun Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x might make it look like a buy right now compared...Analysis Article • Aug 20
A Look At The Fair Value Of Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN)
Key Insights Baozun's estimated fair value is US$3.52 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of...Analysis Article • Mar 31
News Flash: Analysts Just Made A Sizeable Upgrade To Their Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) Forecasts
Celebrations may be in order for Baozun Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 11,956 | 372 | 475 | 536 | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | 11,196 | 250 | 438 | 397 | 7 |
| 12/31/2026 | 10,529 | 128 | 357 | 266 | 7 |
| 12/31/2025 | 9,945 | -242 | 267 | 420 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 9,768 | -204 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 9,668 | -185 | -97 | 99 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 9,507 | -182 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 9,422 | -185 | -107 | 101 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 9,208 | -234 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 8,975 | -272 | -90 | 112 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 8,904 | -262 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 8,812 | -278 | 218 | 448 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 8,585 | -514 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 8,502 | -557 | 544 | 776 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 8,304 | -614 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 8,401 | -653 | 123 | 383 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 9,020 | -377 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 9,178 | -501 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 9,360 | -343 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 9,396 | -220 | -449 | -96 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 9,570 | 28 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 9,500 | 385 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 9,348 | 425 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 8,852 | 426 | 151 | 310 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 8,289 | 328 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 7,963 | 302 | 94 | 247 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 7,515 | 250 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 7,278 | 281 | 149 | 301 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 6,696 | 329 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 6,304 | 319 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 5,759 | 289 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 5,393 | 270 | N/A | -99 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 4,756 | 228 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 4,536 | 220 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 4,265 | 213 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 4,149 | 209 | N/A | -169 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 3,856 | 124 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 3,715 | 121 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 3,527 | 93 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 3,390 | 87 | N/A | 13 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 3,134 | 39 | N/A | -72 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 2,972 | 26 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 2,789 | 25 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 2,598 | -3 | N/A | 2 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 2,265 | -34 | N/A | -22 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 2,049 | -150 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: BZUN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: BZUN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: BZUN is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: BZUN's revenue (6.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: BZUN's revenue (6.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: BZUN's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.6%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 05:27 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Baozun Inc. is covered by 19 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Lixin Ju | BofA Global Research |
| Qingpu Yang | Citic Securities Co., Ltd. |
| Alicia Yap | Citigroup Inc |