Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) Second-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.0% to US$2.32. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at CN¥2.4b, beating analyst expectations by 2.5%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Baozun

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Baozun from ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥9.24b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 3.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 63% to CN¥1.69. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥9.07b and losses of CN¥1.50 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Baozun even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a noticeable increase in per-share losses.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$3.49, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Baozun analyst has a price target of US$5.03 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.54. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Baozun is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Baozun's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.0% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Baozun is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Baozun. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Baozun going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Baozun Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.