Is Bilibili (NasdaqGS:BILI) Undervalued After Recent Share Price Weakness?

Bilibili (NasdaqGS:BILI) has quietly slid over the past month, even as its year to date performance and double digit revenue and net income growth paint a more balanced picture for long term investors.

See our latest analysis for Bilibili.

At around $24.39 per share, the recent 30 day share price return of minus 6.84 percent and 90 day share price return of minus 12.96 percent suggest fading near term momentum, even though the year to date share price return of 42.38 percent and one year total shareholder return of 21.40 percent still point to a healthier longer term recovery story.

If Bilibili has you thinking about growth stories in tech, this is also a good moment to scout other fast movers through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With analysts seeing upside to the current price and fundamentals improving, yet the share price drifting lower in recent months, is Bilibili quietly becoming a mispriced growth story, or is the market already discounting its next leg higher?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 18.8% Undervalued

With Bilibili last closing at $24.39 versus a narrative fair value near $30, the gap hints at a disconnect between price and projected upside.

The company's strengthening of its proprietary IP ecosystem through the success of in-house animation and gaming, particularly with long-life cycle titles like San Mou (with international expansion planned), is likely to support higher content-driven revenues and reduced content cost pressures, positively impacting gross and operating margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how ambitious margin gains, accelerating earnings, and a premium future multiple all fit together for Bilibili? The narrative’s financial roadmap may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $30.04 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a narrower games pipeline and ongoing regulatory uncertainty in China could quickly undermine the bullish narrative if titles slip or approvals tighten.

Find out about the key risks to this Bilibili narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

Step back from the narrative fair value and Bilibili looks demanding on earnings. It trades on a price to earnings ratio of 92.3 times, versus about 16.9 times for the US Interactive Media and Services industry and 14.9 times for peers, well above its 31.5 times fair ratio.

In practice, that means investors are paying a steep premium today for future growth and margin gains that still need to be delivered, with limited room for execution missteps or regulatory shocks. Could this gap narrow through earnings catching up, or might the share price need to reset instead?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Bilibili Narrative

If you see Bilibili’s story differently or prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can shape a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Bilibili research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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