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TRANEX Q3 2025 Earning Result – Earnings Remain Under Pressure as Revenue Weakness and Cost Burden Drive Loss Position

Published
13 Nov 25
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Wane_Investment_House's Fair Value
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1Y
74.8%
7D
0%

Author's Valuation

₦1.634.4% overvalued intrinsic discount

Wane_Investment_House's Fair Value

Executive Summary

Trans-Nationwide Express Plc reported continued operating weakness for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025, as subdued demand and persistent cost pressures weighed on financial performance. Revenue declined sharply amid softer logistics volumes, reflecting macroeconomic challenges, intensified competitive pressures and weakening consumer spending. Revenue fell 41% YoY to ₦127.9 million in 9M 2025 (vs. ₦217.8 million in 9M 2024), translating to lower operating leverage and a sustained negative bottom-line. Administrative expenses remained elevated despite reduced business scale, constraining earnings recovery momentum. Loss Before Tax widened to ₦82.1 million (vs. ₦73.8 million loss in 2024), driven by higher cost-to-income ratio and limited ancillary income streams. The Company recorded a Loss After Tax of ₦82.5 million (vs. ₦50.2 million loss in prior year). Balance sheet position weakened further, with equity declining sharply to ₦132.6 million from ₦301.5 million YoY due to accumulated losses, while liabilities increased, reflecting reliance on payables to fund working capital. Overall, TRANEX continues to face industry-specific and macroeconomic headwinds, underscoring the need for strategic restructuring, market expansion initiatives and operational efficiency enhancement.

 

Financial Highlights – Statement of Profit or Loss

₦'000  Q3 2025          9M 2025         9M 2024

Revenue          31,689 127,919           217,833

Direct Cost      (10,725)          (40,476)          (73,545)

Gross Profit    20,965 87,443 144,288

Other Income  –          1,520   19,523

Admin Expenses         (46,018)          (170,880)        (237,069)

Finance Cost   (95)     (187)   (536)

Profit Before Tax        (25,149)          (82,104)          (73,793)

Income Tax     (126)   (411)   23,614

Profit/(Loss) After Tax           (25,274)          (82,514)          (50,180)

EPS (₦)**      (0.05)  (0.18)  (0.11)

Key Takeaways

•           Revenue contraction continues to pressure margins

•           Limited ancillary income weakens profitability

•           Operating expenses remain structurally high relative to turnover

 

Balance Sheet Summary

₦'000  Sept 2025        Dec 2024         Sept 2024

Total Assets    645,414           607,856           651,085

Total Equity    132,554           215,067           301,476

Total Liabilities          512,860           392,789           349,609

Balance Sheet Interpretation

•           Equity erosion driven by accumulated losses

•           Liabilities increased, highlighting working-capital pressure

•           Cash position modest at ₦79.9m; receivables elevated (₦208.4m), signaling collection challenges

 

Key Ratios & Performance Indicators

Metric 9M 2025

Revenue Growth         -41% YoY

Gross Margin  68%

Operating Margin       Neg

PAT Growth   N/M (loss widened)

Equity -56% YoY

 

Strategic Insights

Strengths

•           Strong gross margin despite volume pressure (indicative of cost control in direct operations)

•           Stable asset base; no major borrowings strain

•           Long-standing brand in logistics and courier sector

Weaknesses

•           Operating losses and equity erosion

•           High overhead relative to revenue capacity

•           Weak cash-flow generation

•           High trade receivables — potential liquidity stress

 

Outlook

TRANEX requires strategic restructuring to restore competitiveness and achieve sustainable profitability. Key focus areas include:

•           Strengthening revenue through e-commerce logistics partnerships

•           Tightening cost control and overhead efficiency

•           Enhancing receivables recovery to improve liquidity

•           Technology investment to optimize operations and customer service

•           Potential capital injection to support scaling efforts

 

Analyst View

“TRANEX continues to operate under significant margin and liquidity pressure as demand softness and elevated cost structure constrain earnings normalization. While gross margin improvements are notable, sustained losses and equity depletion highlight the urgency for operational recalibration, balance-sheet strengthening and commercial re-positioning. Strategic partnerships, digital expansion and receivables optimization remain critical inflection levers.”

Conclusion

Trans-Nationwide Express Plc delivered another challenging period in 9M 2025, characterized by declining revenue, negative earnings and weakened equity. While the business maintains a solid legacy footprint in logistics, transformational actions will be required to restore profitability and drive long-term value creation.

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Disclaimer

The user Wane_Investment_House holds no position in NGSE:TRANSEXPR. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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